Category: Mike Shanahan

They Actually Kicked to Hester

Chicago Bears v Washington Redskins

Yesterday’s Chicago at Washington contest was on more or less as background noise in my house. I watched chunks here and there, but I was doing other things and not paying close attention until the third quarter. When I saw the game going to commercial with a highlight of Devin Hester running into the end zone, my initial thoughts went like this:

  • Was that footage from a previous game?
  • Why would they show footage from a previous game?
  • Washington kicked to him. To Hester. With their coverage unit?
  • Why would the hell would they kick to him?

Then I started wondering just how bad a decision it was to even kick the ball where Hester could catch it. The answer — really, really stupid:

See, Washington has the NFL’s worst punt coverage unit this season, and Hester is the best punt returner EVER. At the risk of being repetitive, Washington is last in net punting average, last in yards allowed per return, and tied for most punts returns for a touchdown allowed. They’re facing the best return man in history. And they kicked the ball to him.

Okay, I’m not sure I’ve made my point yet. Since 1920, 167 players have had at least 100 punt returns. Former Washington standout Brian Mitchell is the all-time leader with a whopping 463 punt returns. Number two is Eric Metcalf with 351. It’s not exaggeration to say Mitchell is the Cal Ripken of NFL punt returners.

Hester ranks 16th on the total returns list, but ranks 9th in total punt return yards. All-time, Hester is 4th in yards per punt return — the guys ahead of him played in the 1940s and 1960s (George McAfee, 1940-50 (also played in Chicago); Claude Gibson, 1961-65; and Bill Dudley, 1942-53).

But where Hester separates himself from the rest is in what he did to Washington yesterday — scoring. Hester is the all-time leader in punts returned for a TD with 13. Metcalf is second with 10, but that 3-score difference creates an illusion of closeness. Metcalf had 351 career returns — Hester has 255.

Just for the heck of it, I calculated the TD% for NFL players with at least 100 punts returned. Here’s the top 20:

RkPlayerFromToRetTDTD%
1Devin Hester20062013255135.1%
2Adam Jones2005201312454.0%
3Patrick Peterson2011201310743.7%
4Joey Galloway1995201014153.5%
5DeSean Jackson2008201311743.4%
6Rick Upchurch1975198324883.2%
7Desmond Howard1992200222673.1%
8Lemar Parrish1970198213143.1%
9Henry Ellard1983199713543.0%
10Steve Schubert1974197910332.9%
11Bob Hayes*1965197510432.9%
12Eddie Drummond2002200714042.9%
13Eric Metcalf19892002351102.8%
14Deion Sanders*1989200521262.8%
15Phillip Buchanon2002201110632.8%
16Dana McLemore1982198714242.8%
17Dante Hall2000200821662.8%
18Amani Toomer1996200810932.8%
19Claude Gibson1961196511032.7%
20LeRoy Irvin1980199014742.7%

See Hester up there at the top? Roughly 5% of the time he returns a punt, he scores. He’s the best ever at it — and the contest isn’t even close. Indeed, if Hester fails to score on his next 68 punt returns, he’d STILL be the all-time leader in punt return TD%.

Yet, the geniuses running the Washington football team kicked to him. Three times. And, of course, Hester returned one for a touchdown. This is a thing that happened.

How to Reach A Bad Conclusion: Omit Relevant Facts

RG3

Writing for Yahoo! Finance, Tony Manfred proclaimed that the 2012 trade of Robert Griffin III has been bad for both Washington and St. Louis. It’s not like there’s no evidence to support this theory — and Manfred cites some good ones:

  • both teams have bad records
  • the Rams need a better QB, and
  • Washington has needs at multiple positions that could have been filled with draft picks.

The problem with Manfred’s analysis is that he left out some relevant details. First, the draft is not the only mechanism for NFL teams to acquire talent. And second, Washington was handicapped in its efforts to fill holes at other positions by a preposterous, unfair, and in all ways ridiculous $36 million salary cap penalty.

And let’s keep in mind that the salary cap penalty was announced on the eve of free agency — after Washington made the trade for Griffin. Had the penalty been assessed earlier in the off-season, the team’s draft strategy may well have been different.

Just theorizing here, but if Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen had that $36 million in cap space, they likely would have spent on it some of those problem areas like offensive line, cornerback and safety. You know, instead of bargain shopping for the likes of Will Montgomery, Tyler Polumbus, Brandon Meriweather and Reed Doughty.

It’s improbable to think they really thought that a sixth round pick (Baccari Rambo) would make for a competent starter. There’s just no way they’d be using a four-cornerback, one safety alignment if they had that cap space available.

All that said, Manfred may be correct when it comes to the Rams. I pay little attention to the team. That said, their reasoning in trading Griffin was clearly that they thought Sam Bradford would become a franchise quarterback.  That’s turned out to be an error.

From Washington’s side, I wouldn’t quibble too much if someone wanted to argue the team paid too high a price for Griffin — the price was steep. But for that argument to have merit, all the relevant facts need to be included.