Wizards Update: Just How Good Are They?

The Wizards continue to rack up wins — even over the last 10 games, which has been the team’s most challenging stretch of the year. Last night, they did something that has me typing words that would have been difficult to imagine typing just last season: Fueled by a strong performance from Kevin Seraphin, Washington blew open a close contest late to secure a comfortable win against the San Antonio Spurs.

It was the team’s first win over the Spurs since 2005. The team’s record now sits at 26-12, good for second in their division and in the conference. Their .684 winning percentage is that of a 56-win team over an 82-game schedule — rarefied air for this franchise.

But…are they really that good? Basketball analytics has shown that scoring differential is a better predictor of team strength than its record. Luck can push a team’s record up or down a few wins, but how much it outscores its opponents offers a truer measure of relative strength.

So far this season, Washington’s scoring differential is +2.13, a mark that would suggest a 47-win team. Add in their weak schedule (fifth easiest in the league), and their differential falls to +1.49, which would suggest a 45-win team.

That +1.49 is Basketball-Reference’s Simple Rating System, a strength rating that combines scoring differential with strength of schedule. Of teams in NBA history with a similar SRS (between +1.0 and +2.0), the Wizards have the best winning percentage. They’re at .684 so far. Next closest is the 1961-62 Lakers at .675.

Of the 115 teams in that similar SRS grouping, the average winning percentage is .554 — so, 45 wins.

Narrow the focus to an SRS between +1.4 and +1.6, and the field is cut to 17 teams. And the winning percentage drops to .541 — about 44 wins.

But, here’s where that strength of schedule thing works in Washington’s favor. While the Wizards aren’t overwhelmingly strong, the East remains historically weak. Their schedule the rest of the way is about 0.7 points per game weaker than average — roughly the quality of a 39-win team the rest of the way. Because of that, Washington projects to finish with 51-53 wins, even without improving their scoring differential.

Weekly Player Production Average Update

Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	11/10	11/18	11/24	12/3	12/8	12/17	12/23	12/29	1/6	PPA
John Wall	38	35.5	185	180	180	168	167	175	171	171	167	172
Marcin Gortat	38	29.5	181	186	170	175	179	178	178	173	158	157
Paul Pierce	36	26.4	140	138	165	134	134	154	142	143	148	144
Nene Hilario	31	24.5	108	102	68	67	83	94	96	97	101	112
Bradley Beal	29	33.4			122	63	69	94	90	98	102	106
Rasual Butler	34	22.7	60	131	116	128	155	140	134	123	99	101
Kris Humphries	37	21.5	46	87	90	82	109	100	88	109	103	98
Andre Miller	38	12.6	72	69	92	103	102	101	89	85	97	94
Otto Porter	28	18.2	97	106	101	95	84	81	84	82	85	82
Garrett Temple	29	12.8	121	112	96	100	98	91	90	75	73	68
Kevin Seraphin	37	15.6	38	13	17	12	28	34	45	36	35	44
Drew Gooden	21	12.2	42	40	59	78	64	47	47	44	32	22
DeJuan Blair	12	4.8	-41	-40	-40	-74	-56	-47	-46	-34	2	16
Martell Webster	5	11.6									-150	-44
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117	-117	-114	-113	-111	-111	-110	-110

It was fun to see Seraphin follow a good performance against the Hawks with an outstanding one against the Spurs. But, it’s going to take a sustained run of solid play from the big fella to convince me he belongs in the rotation. Previous analysis of Seraphin’s game log showed he has an above average game about 20% of the time. Over the course of an 82-game schedule, it’s almost inevitable that he’d have at least one two-game sequence where he performs above average in each. There’s approximately a 47% chance he’ll have a three-game sequence in which he performs above average.

In fact, he’s already done it this season against Denver, at Boston and home against Boston from December 5-8. He followed up that three-game stretch with a meh game at Orlando, two negative games against the Clippers and Jazz, and then a replacement level performance against Minnesota. If you want a sign that he’s truly improved, wait until he’s strong together four or more consecutive above average performances.

Also good: upticks in performance from Wall, Nenê, and Beal. Gortat’s performance was flat, but significantly down his production in December.

There seems to be some sentiment among Wizards fans (and maybe even the coach) that the team needs a backup PG to replace or supplement Miller. While Miller is a defensive liability, his overall performance (which is what matters) has been solid.

If the team is looking to upgrade for the second half of the season, it wouldn’t hurt to add a third PG for insurance. But, more pressing issues are Seraphin as the backup center, and perhaps a more athletic 3&D type to backup Beal.

Wizards Update: Successful Trip, But Concerns Remain

While fans worried during Washington’s three-game losing streak over the past week, the Wizards completed a successful road trip against Western Conference opponents with wins over Houston and New Orleans. Entering the trip as decided underdogs in all five contests, the Wizards were competitive in all but the Dallas game — which came the night after a gritty win against the Rockets.

Upon completion of the trip, I updated my “who’s gonna win” calculator and projected the Wizards’ final record. At the Washington Post this week, columnist Thomas Boswell did a nice job explaining why the Wizards aren’t as good as their record. Everything Boswell wrote is valid and correct, but…being in the Eastern Conference this season is incredibly fortunate for a middle-of-the-pack team like the Wizards.

Based on season performance through last night’s games, I estimate Washington will finish with 51-54 wins — the best season for the franchise since the mid-1970s.

My biggest concerns for the Wizards going forward are these:

Age — Many seem to think this is a young team, but it’s not. They have the league’s 7th oldest rotation, and they’re reliant on 30+ year olds in key roles — including the 38-year old Andre Miller and the 37-year old Paul Pierce. And there’s Nenê, whose play has declined the past couple years as he’s suffered through a series of nagging injuries.
No elite producers — I can hear the screens breaking all over the DC area. What about John Wall?! He’s an All-Star, a top five PG, and you wrote last week that he’s the league’s best defensive PG. Well, some of that is true. But, good as Wall has been this season, he’s still well behind the game’s elite players when it comes to doing things that cause a team to win. As I’ve pointed out previously, Wall does a lot of good things when he’s on the floor, but…he also does a lot of things that hurt — specifically turnovers, missed shots and poor shot selection. To become an elite team, the Wizards need him to play even better than he already has.
Kevin Seraphin — The coaches keep playing him, and in games against weaker opponents he doesn’t hurt too much. Against better teams, it hurts to have Seraphin in the lineup. That was apparent in the loss against Oklahoma City. In a game the Wizards lost by seven, they were -11 when Seraphin was on the floor. For those who don’t want to do the math, that means Washington was +7 when he was on the bench.
Lack of Progress from the youngsters — I’m a big fan of Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, but both guys have been pretty average so far. Beal’s 102 PPA (see below) is a modest improvement, but is below average for a starter (125). Porter has been okay as a backup, and is performing at a level similar to that of players with similar collegiate production. Neither guy has demonstrated they should be considered foundational players for the Wizards. And, I think Washington will need one of the two (preferably Beal) to make that leap this season if they hope to reach the conference Finals…or more.
Coaching — Encouraged by head coach Randy Wittman, the Wizards continue to take too many two-point jumpers. Sometimes they’re necessary, but the math is abundantly clear that they’re bad shots — exactly the ones the defense wants them to take.

Weekly Player Production Average Update

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	11/10	11/18	11/24	12/03	12/08	12/17	12/23	12/29	PPA
John Wall	29	35.6	185	180	180	168	167	175	171	171	167
Marcin Gortat	29	29.6	181	186	170	175	179	178	178	173	158
Paul Pierce	28	26.4	140	138	165	134	134	154	142	143	148
Kris Humphries	28	21.7	46	87	90	82	109	100	88	109	103
Bradley Beal	20	33.2			122	63	69	94	90	98	102
Nene Hilario	22	24.2	108	102	68	67	83	94	96	97	101
Rasual Butler	25	22.6	60	131	116	128	155	140	134	123	99
Andre Miller	29	12.8	72	69	92	103	102	101	89	85	97
Otto Porter	28	18.7	97	106	101	95	84	81	84	82	85
Garrett Temple	25	14.0	121	112	96	100	98	91	90	75	73
Kevin Seraphin	28	15.4	38	13	17	12	28	34	45	36	35
Drew Gooden	18	13.1	42	40	59	78	64	47	47	44	32
DeJuan Blair	9	5.0	-41	-40	-40	-74	-56	-47	-46	-34	2
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117	-117	-114	-113	-111	-111	-110
Martell Webster	2	10.0									-150

No major surprises considering the team went 2-3 over the past week. Wall took over the top spot in the team’s PPA rankings because Gortat’s play dropped further.

Rasual Butler’s anticipated reversion to the mean is in progress. Hopefully, Beal’s play will improve as Butler’s dips.

Seraphin held steady…below replacement level.

For the first time in weeks, the Wizards dusted off DeJuan Blair, and he moved his PPA out of negative territory.

Martell Webster looked terrible in his return from back surgery.

Wizards Update: About to Be Tested

At 21-8, the Wizards are off to the second best start in franchise history. Check out the very bottom of the table in that link and note that Washington had its worst start in franchise history just two seasons ago. The front office’s strategic shift to proven veterans combined with a historically weak Eastern Conference to bring about an abrupt about-face in the team’s record.

While the Wizards have enjoyed the league’s easiest schedule so far, things are about to change. To this point in the season, Washington’s opponents have been 1.32 points per game worse than average. Over the next 19 games, their competition will be about a point per game better than average.

To say it another way, Washington’s average opponent so far this season has been the equivalent of a 37-win team — a lottery squad in either conference most years. Over the next quarter of the season, their opponents will be the quality of a 44-win team — a near-lock for the playoffs in either conference.

The next five games will likely be the toughest stretch of the regular season. Over the next week, Washington has road games against Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and New Orleans — and the schedule includes two sets of back-to-back contests.

The Wizards will be underdogs in all five games, and their average competition this week will be equivalent to a 50-win squad. It won’t be easy.

I ran the numbers in my “who’s gonna win?” machine. The machine projects Washington to go 9-10 over the next month, including a five-game skid starting tonight. This will likely test the faith of Wizards fans, but I think reality for Washington is that they’re a solid team in a weak conference.

Based on how teams have performed to this point in the season, The Machine predicts Washington will go 33-20 over their remaining games to finish the year 54-28. This would be tied with the 1978-79 Bullets for the third best mark in franchise history. Fans my age might recall that the 78-79 team went to the NBA Finals where they lost to Seattle. I suspect fans of any age would be ecstatic if this year’s team reached the Finals and got thumped by a top-shelf Western Conference opponent.

Weekly Player Production Average Update

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	10-Nov	18-Nov	24-Nov	3-Dec	8-Dec	17-Dec	23-Dec	PPA
Marcin Gortat	29	29.7	181	186	170	175	179	178	178	173
John Wall	29	35.8	185	180	180	168	167	175	171	171
Paul Pierce	28	27.0	140	138	165	134	134	154	142	143
Rasual Butler	25	22.8	60	131	116	128	155	140	134	123
Kris Humphries	28	21.9	46	87	90	82	109	100	88	109
Bradley Beal	20	33.0			122	63	69	94	90	98
Nene Hilario	22	24.2	108	102	68	67	83	94	96	97
Andre Miller	29	12.4	72	69	92	103	102	101	89	85
Otto Porter	28	19.0	97	106	101	95	84	81	84	82
Garrett Temple	25	14.4	121	112	96	100	98	91	90	75
Drew Gooden	18	13.3	42	40	59	78	64	47	47	44
Kevin Seraphin	28	15.3	38	13	17	12	28	34	45	36
DeJuan Blair	9	4.6	-41	-40	-40	-74	-56	-47	-46	-34
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117	-117	-114	-113	-111	-111

Plenty of stability in this update as several players seem to have established their performance levels.

Humphries went back into “above average” territory with two outstanding games off the bench this week.

Butler’s production seems to be coming back to earth after preposterously torrid shooting for the first 20 games of the season. Hopefully, whatever’s lost from his return to norms will be offset by improvement from Beal.

After improving his PPA in three consecutive updates, Seraphin spent the past week Seraphining. Over his past three games, Seraphin played 40 minutes. During those minutes on the floor, he scored 20 points (yay points!) while getting three rebounds, one assist, no steals or blocks, but four turnovers and seven fouls.

He did shoot 10-20 over those three games, but he got to the free throw line just once (he missed). His 50% shooting isn’t bad — league average efg is .499. But, add in the turnovers, the lack of offensive rebounds and the inability to get to the free throw line, and his offensive rating (points produced per individual possession x 100) was just 81 — 25 points below league average, and nearly 27 points below the Wizards’ average over the past three games.

With the schedule getting tougher, it’s time for the Seraphin experiment to end.

Wizards Update: Best Start In Franchise History

These are strange and enjoyable days for Wizards fans. The team is 19-7, tied for the best start in franchise history, and metaphysically certain to make another trip to the playoffs. They’re in a tight race with the Atlanta Hawks for first in the Southeast Division. And John Wall is probably going to make his second All-Star game appearance in February.

The team is fairly deep in terms of solid players, though Wall and Pierce (the team’s top producers) still fall short of the game’s elite. The Wizards have benefited so far from playing the league’s easiest schedule. That’ll change somewhat when they make their trips to the West, but they’re in the Eastern Conference so their competition isn’t going to get much more challenging.

That said, the Wizards have no control over the schedule or the state of other teams. Their job is to beat whoever’s in the other color jersey, and they’re doing a good job of that so far this season.

Weekly Player Production Average Update

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	10-Nov	18-Nov	24-Nov	3-Dec	8-Dec	17-Dec	PPA
Marcin Gortat	26	29.5	181	186	170	175	179	178	178
John Wall	26	36.1	185	180	180	168	167	175	171
Paul Pierce	25	27.4	140	138	165	134	134	154	142
Rasual Butler	22	22.3	60	131	116	128	155	140	134
Nene Hilario	19	24.6	108	102	68	67	83	94	96
Bradley Beal	23	32.9			122	63	69	94	90
Garrett Temple	17	15.6	121	112	96	100	98	91	90
Andre Miller	26	12.2	72	69	92	103	102	101	89
Kris Humphries	25	21.5	46	87	90	82	109	100	88
Otto Porter	25	19.6	97	106	101	95	84	81	84
Drew Gooden	16	14.8	42	40	59	78	64	47	47
Kevin Seraphin	25	15.6	38	13	17	12	28	34	45
DeJuan Blair	8	4.6	-41	-40	-40	-74	-56	-47	-46
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117	-117	-114	-113	-111

Production rates are stabilizing for many on the team. This week, most of the ratings edged down slightly — that was the case for Wall, Pierce, Butler, Beal, Miller, Temple, and Humphries. Nenê and Porter edged up a bit.

The biggest improver was Kevin Seraphin, whose rating for the season rose to replacement level.

Wizards Update: Is Wall A Top 5 PG?

Now in his fifth year, Wizards PG John Wall is having the best season of his career. He’s drawn accolades from observers around the league, and some Washington fans have even started wondering if he might be a fringe MVP candidate. The MVP talk and the “he’s the best PG in the league” assertions are premature, however. He’s terrifically productive, but there’s still room for significant improvement.

Put away the pitchforks and torches. While Wall isn’t quite where fans want to place him, this is really good news for the Wizards. He’s a phenomenal player whose best days are likely still in the future.

While Wall’s passing and offensive creativity elicits praise, his greatest contribution is on the defensive end. In the defense part of my metric (Player Production Average — PPA for short), Wall rates as the league’s best defensive PG. That’s not a typo. Number one. Top of the heap. Nobody better. That finding is echoed by ESPN’s Real Plus Minus stat. If the season ended today, he’d be on my first-team All-Defense ballot.

As head coach Randy Wittman told the Sports Junkies this morning, Wall has all the attributes of an outstanding defender — size, quickness, speed, strength, length. And while he’s rated as a good defender in my system in previous years, he’s made the defensive leap this season with suffocating on-ball pressure, hard close-outs on shooters, and impeccable timing in the passing lanes.

The Los Angeles Clippers, led by elite PG Chris Paul, struggled to get into their offensive sets early in Washington’s win last week because of Wall’s pressure. Consider this: Paul has 49 total turnovers this season. Six of them came against the Wizards.

By now you’re probably wondering: If Wall’s so great on defense and he’s such a great passer and the Wizards are winning, why don’t you agree he’s an MVP candidate? Why are you about to tell me he’s not a top five PG?

Which brings me back to a junk metric I created last season: Only Good Stuff. In its simplest form, OGS is points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks.

Wall is among the game’s more active players when he’s out there. He produces lots of OGS — 7th most in the league, in fact. Here’s the top 10 in OGS:

James Harden — 977
Anthony Davis — 940
Stephen Curry — 922
Kobe Bryant — 917
Lebron James — 917
LaMarcus Aldridge — 869
John Wall — 867
Blake Griffin — 843
Kyle Lowry — 361
Damian Lillard — 835

That’s a pretty impressive group, and Wall sits second among PGs. But, it’s ONLY the good stuff. What if we look at the other side of the ledger — Only Bad Stuff (missed field goal attempts + 0.5 x missed free throw attempts + turnovers + fouls)? Well, Wall’s near the top of that list too — 6th most OBS. The bottom 10:

Kobe Bryant — 502
James Harden — 422
Monta Ellis — 389
Josh Smith — 387
Carmelo Anthony — 384
John Wall — 367
Tyreke Evans — 365
Kyle Lowry — 361
Blake Griffin — 360
Stephen Curry — 351

So, with Wall (and several other of the game’s outstanding players), lots of good AND lots of “bad.” What if we combine the two? Because the categories aren’t weighted based on how much they contribute to winning, let’s call this last category Unweighted Total Stuff (UTS) — OGS – OBS. Here’s the top 10:

Anthony Davis — 687
Stephen Curry — 571
Lebron James — 559
James Harden — 555
Chris Paul — 523
LaMarcus Aldridge — 523
Marc Gasol — 512
Tyson Chandler — 505
John Wall & Damian Lillard — 501
Blake Griffin — 484

Enough with the “stuff,” according to PPA (which is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a degree of difficulty factor), Wall currently sits 8th among PGs on a per minute basis. Westbrook, Curry and Paul are clearly the top three. Lillard is next. Then it’s a tight group of Jeff Teague, Lowry, Mike Conley and Wall.

The scores of Wall’s group are close enough that I’d classify them as “about the same” and reasonable minds can differ on what order they should be in. I won’t argue if you want to push Wall to fifth, though I don’t see justification for ranking him higher at this point.

As mentioned above, Wall rates as the best defender — Lowry and Conley rate as average; Teague as a good-not-outstanding defender. However, Wall is the least efficient on offense among the top PGs by approximately 8 points per 100 possessions.

In TOTAL production, Wall currently sits 5th behind Curry, Paul, Lillard and Lowry. Kyrie Irving slips in ahead of Wall for fifth in per game PPA.

What can Wall do to improve? Shoot better and commit fewer turnovers.

How good has Wall been in December? His PPA for the month is 219 so far. If that was his PPA for the season, he’d rank 4th among PGs, ahead of Lillard, but still behind Westbrook, Curry and Paul.

To this week’s PPA update…

PPA is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	10-Nov	18-Nov	24-Nov	3-Dec	8-Dec	PPA
Marcin Gortat	19	30.2	181	186	170	175	179	178
John Wall	19	35.9	185	180	180	168	167	175
Paul Pierce	19	27.3	140	138	165	134	134	154
Rasual Butler	15	21.6	60	131	116	128	155	140
Andre Miller	19	12.4	72	69	92	103	102	101
Kris Humphries	18	22.0	46	87	90	82	109	100
Nene Hilario	13	33.2	108	102	68	67	83	94
Bradley Beal	10	24.6			122	63	69	94
Garrett Temple	17	17.0	121	112	96	100	98	91
Otto Porter	18	20.1	97	106	101	95	84	81
Drew Gooden	12	15.9	42	40	59	78	64	47
Kevin Seraphin	18	15.3	38	13	17	12	28	34
DeJuan Blair	6	4.6	-41	-40	-40	-74	-56	-47
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117	-117	-114	-113

The Paul Pierce signing looks better and better. The last time Pierce was this productive was the 2011-12 season. His efficiency numbers have surged as the SF has found the Fountain of Youth. One potential warning sign is a slip in his defensive impact since the season’s opening weeks. After rating solidly above average earlier in the year, he’s down to average in my most recent update.

Andre Miller is another of the Wizards ancients who continues to perform well. The team plays dramatically different when he replaces Wall in the lineup (they slow by 10 possessions per 48 minutes), but they’re crazy efficient when he’s out there. It seems like every game is a masterclass for how to get to the rim despite running in slow motion.

Statistical tidbit: so far this season, Wall is averaging 14.8 assists per 100 possessions. Miller is averaging 14.4.

Beal and Nenê increased production after a couple rough weeks. I hope Wittman continues to use Nenê off the bench where he can face opponent reserves when Washington is on offense, and anchor a weak defensive second unit.

Kevin Seraphin was up for a second straight week. His rebounding has improved the past couple weeks, though his offensive efficiency remains poor. Among the team’s regulars, he’s in a virtual tie with Miller as the least effective defender.

Wizards Update: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Over the past week, the Wizards rolled to convincing wins over the hapless Lakers and the not-awful Nuggets, and then lost a shoulda-won game against a middling Celtics squad. And, in the grand tradition of players having good games shortly after I rip them, Kevin Seraphin had probably his best game of the year against Denver.

Meanwhile, John Wall climbed into a tie with Rajon Rondo for having the biggest defensive impact for a point guard in my rating system. Wall shows up in my numbers as having the biggest defensive impact on the Wizards so far this season. Not bad for a guy who I still think has room for improvement on the defensive end.

Other positive defenders: Marcin Gortat, Nenê, Kris Humphries, and Garrett Temple.

The “about average” grouping includes: Otto Porter, Rasual Butler and Paul Pierce. Pierce, had gotten off to an excellent start defensively, but his individual performance seems to have slipped a bit over the past couple weeks.

Bradley Beal and Drew Gooden are in the “bad defensive impact” category so far. Kevin Seraphin and Andre Miller are defensive dumpster fires to this point in the year.

Below is the Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is per-minute, pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	10-Nov	18-Nov	24-Nov	3-Dec	PPA
Marcin Gortat	19	30.5	181	186	170	175	179
John Wall	19	35.3	185	180	180	168	167
Rasual Butler	15	20.3	60	131	116	128	155
Paul Pierce	19	26.6	140	138	165	134	134
Kris Humphries	18	19.7	46	87	90	82	109
Andre Miller	19	12.6	72	69	92	103	102
Garrett Temple	17	20.2	121	112	96	100	98
Otto Porter	18	21.9	97	106	101	95	84
Nene Hilario	13	25.5	108	102	68	67	83
Bradley Beal	10	30.4			122	63	69
Drew Gooden	12	17.3	42	40	59	78	64
Kevin Seraphin	18	15.2	38	13	17	12	28
DeJuan Blair	6	5.7	-41	-40	-40	-74	-56
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117	-117	-114

The first thing I wondered about when perusing the table above was the lack of change in Wall’s PPA. My feeling was that he had a terrific week. But, the game log shows that he shoot poorly (efg of just .395) and that he committed 14 turnovers.

Rasual Butler had another week of outlandishly good shooting. In non-shooting categories, Butler’s numbers are all within established career norms. So far in Washington, he’s shooting .579 from 2pt range (vs. a career average of .435), and .545 from 3pt range (vs. a career average of .364).

I know fans want to attribute this to The Wall Effect, but a) only about half Butler’s minutes have been with Wall; b) he’s shooting with outlandish accuracy (and more often) when Wall’s on the bench; and c) his shooting numbers in Indiana last season were also significantly better than his previous career norms.

Butler	efg	usg
with Wall	.765	13.8%
w/o Wall	.700	20.3%

It may simply be that Butler worked hard and improved his shooting late in his career. And, it may be that he’s ripe for a regression. Sample sizes are still small: just 304 minutes and 112 shot attempts so far this season.

I’d like to see the Wizards continue to start Humprhies and bring Nenê off the bench. The starting lineup doesn’t appear to have suffered with the change, which isn’t surprising considering how little Nenê was producing. I suspect Nenê’s production will improve going against bench bigs. And, bringing him off the bench, gives the coaching staff options at PF and C, which means they can drop Seraphin from the rotation.

Despite the loss to Boston, the week was a positive one for the Wizards. Good teams win games convincingly. They don’t necessarily have the best record in close games, because they often avoid close games in the first place. That Washington won three in a row (including the win against Miami) by double digits may be a marker of the team getting stronger.

Wizards Update: Rolling in the East

It’s good to be a Wizards fan right now. The team is 9-3, and reasonable forecasts suggest they’re probably the second best team in their conference. That the conference is historically weak isn’t their fault. The front office put together a solid, veteran squad, and the rest of the conference backed up.

So far this season, the NBA’s collective record vs. Eastern Conference teams is 111-85. That’s a .566 winning percentage, which works out to about 46 wins over an 82-game schedule.

Against the Western Conference, the NBA’s collective record is 86-112, which is a .434 winning percentage. That means about 36 wins over an 82-game schedule.

In other words, we would expect an average team facing the East to win about 46 games…which is what Basketball-Reference forecasts for the Wizards. To highlight the relative power differential between conferences, Basketball Reference predicts the Wizards will finish the season as the second best team in the East, but with an SRS (a robust and “simple” rating system that combines a team’s scoring differential with that of its opponents) that would land it 11th in the West.

But, this is a “moment in time” snapshot. The picture changes a bit with every game played. And there are still a ton of games on the schedule.

Before I get to this week’s stat update, I wanted to address a recurring sentiment I’ve been hearing from an array of Wizards fans. Basically, it’s some variation on the theme that Kevin Seraphin is having a good season or a breakout game or a coming out party or developing into a valuable reserve.

He’s not. At least not so far.

In fact, he’s playing poorly, even compared to his previous performances, which ranked him as the league’s least productive center (per minute) two seasons ago, and the second least productive center last season.

On offense, he’s shooting a good percentage this season, but continues to be a poor passer and a turnover machine. He rates as having very little defensive impact,because of his anemic defensive rebounding and rampant fouling.

The measuring stick on Seraphin is so off that one fan (who later suggested it was the beer talking) tweeted a rave about Seraphin being a revelation on a night the big fella shot 2-7 from the floor.

Here’s Seraphin’s game-by-game PPA scores for this season:

GMS	MIN	PPA
1	7.7	-202
2	1.9	-1003
3	22.1	184
4	13.9	-84
5	18.1	64
6	19.5	139
7	16.7	-70
8	16.1	-36
9	10.6	-36
10	23.4	83
11	13.1	-29

In PPA, 100 = average and higher is better. In 11 games, Seraphin has managed an above-average production rate twice. He’s been a net negative seven times — six, if you prefer to throw out the two-minute stint in the second game of the season.

I like Seraphin, the person. But, he’s not a good NBA player. He hasn’t become one. He’s showing very few signs of developing into one. The Wizards need to find another option as their backup center.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	10-Nov	18-Nov	PPA
John Wall	12	35.7	185	180	180
Marcin Gortat	12	30.9	181	186	170
Paul Pierce	12	27.5	140	138	165
Bradley Beal	3	30.7			122
Rasual Butler	8	16.4	60	131	116
Otto Porter	11	24.4	97	106	101
Garrett Temple	12	26.8	121	112	96
Andre Miller	12	12.6	72	69	92
Kris Humphries	11	15.6	46	87	90
Nene Hilario	11	27.1	108	102	68
Drew Gooden	7	18.0	42	40	59
Kevin Seraphin	11	14.8	38	13	17
DeJuan Blair	3	3.7	-41	-40	-40
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117

This week, I’ve added a column to show each of the previous PPA updates. I’ll keep doing that as long as there’s space.

Wall seems to be settling in at a very high performance level. It’s scary to think there’s still lots of room for improvement too. Seth Partnow at BBall Breakdown did a nice job of summarizing the problem with Wall’s shot selection. Improved decision-making would likely improve the PG’s individual efficiency, and give his team a much-needed boost.

I don’t see how the Wizards could have hoped for more from Pierce, who is performing at a high level in the early going this season.

Nenê suffered a plantar fascia injury to his right foot in the win over Milwaukee. While it’s not good to lose a starter, Nenê has been playing nothing like a starter. His defense shows up as a slight net positive, but doesn’t come close to offsetting his awful offensive efficiency.

Wizards Update: Still Cause for Concern

The Wizards are 7-2 to start the season, which ought to be cause for celebration. And, judging by media reports and fan reaction, that’s mostly what’s happening. So what’s wrong with me?

I’m unconvinced that the good record is particularly meaningful. This is not to suggest the Wizards need to apologize for the competition they’ve faced. They don’t make the schedule, and it’s not their fault that the East is possibly weaker than it was last season — when it was aggressively bad. All Washington can do is keep beating whoever’s on the calendar, which is what they’ve been doing so far.

But…I’m still concerned because of the way they’ve been winning. In sports, the best teams typically have the highest scoring differentials. The Wizards this season stand 11th in scoring differential at +2.22, which doesn’t sound bad except that their opponents have a collective scoring differential of -2.52. In other words, the Wizards are winning by less than the rest of the league against their opponents. At least so far.

There’s a strong sentiment that’s something like: Hey, the Wizards are winning games they should win, which is real progress for this franchise. To an extent, I agree. But, what often happens to an average team (and the numbers are suggesting the Wizards are pretty average) is that over time, they’ll lose games they “shouldn’t.” And there are a TON of games left on the schedule.

Some have pointed out that Washington has played so far without Bradley Beal, which is true but perhaps not as meaningful as some think. Beal was pretty average last season, and didn’t project to make a huge leap this year (at least not in my preseason analysis). Much of what I anticipated he’d provide has been produced by Garrett Temple and Rasual Butler thus far.

Perhaps the best reason to think Washington might be able to win 48-50 games this season is the good fortune of playing in a historically weak conference. Just six Eastern Conference teams have a positive scoring differential so far, and the sixth (Brooklyn) is us by one point total so far this season. All that said, in Basketball-Reference’s simple rating system (which combines scoring margin with strength of schedule), the Wizards currently sit 16th overall and 6th in the East. If they want to make some noise this season, they need to play better.

Below is the Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Marcin Gortat	9	31.3	181	186
John Wall	9	35.6	185	180
Paul Pierce	9	27.4	140	138
Rasual Butler	5	19.2	60	131
Garrett Temple	9	31.1	121	112
Otto Porter	9	24.2	97	106
Nene Hilario	8	28.6	108	102
Kris Humphries	8	13.9	46	87
Andre Miller	9	12.9	72	69
Drew Gooden	6	19.5	42	40
Kevin Seraphin	8	14.5	38	13
DeJuan Blair	3	3.7	-41	-40
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-118

The numbers show Gortat and Wall playing outstanding basketball. Both are performing at an All-Star level. Wall could push his way into All-NBA consideration, if he continues. Gortat’s PPA is currently sixth among centers behind Tyson Chandler, Omer Asik, DeAndre Jordan, DeMarcus Cousins and Robin Lopez.

Biggest improvers this week were Butler and Humprhies. Largest drop was from Seraphin, whose field goal percentage dropped while his rebounding, turnovers and fouling remained poor.

Wizards Update: The Worries

The Washington Wizards are off to a 5-2 start, tied with Miami for first place in the NBA’s Southeast Division, and sitting on pretty good odds of getting to 7-2 before they face Dallas at Verizon Center. And yet…in classic Wizards’ follower fashion, I’m actually a little worried.

Yep, it’s good they’re winning. But, they should be winning given the quality of the opponents they’ve faced so far. No, this isn’t one of those “they would be X record if they’d faced teams A, B and C” critiques. I don’t believe a team (or its fans) should ever have to apologize for the schedule, which is something they don’t control.

What has me a little worried is how pedestrian the Wizards have looked so far this season. They’ve outscored their opponents by 1.57 points per game so far this season; the league has outscored their opponents by 1.99 points per game.

I’d be more willing to buy the injury excuse if they weren’t getting career-best play from Garrett Temple standing in for Bradley Beal and Martell Webster.

But, this is this “little worry” because we’re still in the annual performance of Small Sample Size Theater. A study by Kevin Pelton, then-writing for Basketball Prospectus, showed that team-level stats tend to stabilize around the 25th of the season. Other research has shown that per minute stats for individual players begin to have validity as quick as 150 minutes. More is better, though.

Still, the early indications are that, despite the good record early on, the Wizards are an average team again this season. They’ve been good defensively, but a bit below average on offense. The hope is that getting Beal and Webster will help bolster the team offensively when they can return from injury.

Here’s the first Player Production Average (PPA) update of 2014-15. PPA is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	PPA
John Wall	7	35.7	185
Marcin Gortat	7	32.7	181
Paul Pierce	7	28.0	140
Garrett Temple	7	33.7	121
Nene Hilario	6	29.2	108
Otto Porter	7	24.7	97
Andre Miller	7	12.9	72
Rasual Butler	3	14.3	60
Kris Humphries	6	9.8	46
Drew Gooden	6	19.5	42
Kevin Seraphin	6	13.8	38
DeJuan Blair	3	3.7	-41
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120

Wall and Gortat should jump out immediately (they are at the top of the chart). Both guys have produced at an All-NBA level in the first seven games. This could be The Leap from Wall that fans have been waiting for. If he keeps it up. Gortat has actually performed at a 180ish PPA for a full season (2011-12).

Pierce has been everything Washington could have hoped he’d be. Over the summer, I went hunting through the stats to find players who’d be most likely to replace what Trevor Ariza had provided. The top name on the list: Paul Pierce. His offense could be more efficient, but he’s producing at about the level Ariza did last season — and his defense has been outstanding.

Nenê appears to have picked up more or less where he did last season, and that’s not such a great thing for the Wizards. He’s still a good defender, but his offensive efficiency seems to be departed.

It’s good to see Porter hovering around average. He’s been an asset off the bench, and seems to be figuring out the NBA game. Porter hasn’t been helped much by his oldster bench mates Miller and Gooden, who have been awful defensively since arriving in Washington.

And check out Porter look-alike Garrett Temple, who has so far played at the level of an almost-average NBA starter. Major kudos to Temple for all the work he’s done on his jumper. It shows in his form — especially in the way he sets his feet for takeoff, freezes the follow-through, and plants the landing.

I know folks are going to wonder about Kevin Seraphin, who rates below replacement level yet again. Seraphin is shooting 63% from the floor, and has had a couple nice games. His offensive efficiency is above average. And yet…he continues to be plagued by the same problems he’s had since his rookie year. Specifically, his rebounding is sub-par, he’s turnover prone, and he fouls too much.

Also worth noting are Kris Humprhies and DeJuan Blair, who were acquired in the offseason to provide frontcourt depth. So far, they’ve been behind Seraphin on the depth chart, which is astonishing. Humphries at least has some excuse — he missed three weeks of preseason with a hand injury. Blair has apparently been healthy, but can’t get on the floor despite dreadful play from Seraphin.

At some point, I gotta believe they’ll end the Seraphin experiment and give playing time to Humphries and/or Blair. Based on what they’ve done on the court so far this season, it’s fair to say that neither has made a case for playing ahead of Seraphin. At least not yet.

Projection: Wizards Will Win 45 and Return to the Playoffs

Improvement from the Washington Wizards youngsters, and an infusion of frontcourt depth will be offset by missed time due to injuries and declines from the team’s older players to keep the team in the middle of the NBA pack for another year. However, the team could be a dangerous playoffs matchup if they’re able to enter the postseason healthy.

Below, I’m offering up projections done a couple different ways. The first is built on the similarity scores I’ve posted after the past week. This approach finds players in NBA history with similar production at a similar age, and then looks at what they did in subsequent seasons. Those findings are then applied to the Wizards roster and combined with a playing time estimate for each player.

For this estimate (and the other one, which I’ll get to later in this post), I’ve used my overall metric Player Production Average (PPA), which is calibrated to explain individual player contributions to winning and losing. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the court. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and 45 = replacement level.

Statistical Doppelganger Projection

POS	PLAYER	MIN	LAST SEASON PPA	PROJECTED PPA	PROJECTED kWins
PG	John Wall	2812	139	156	9.0
C	Marcin Gortat	2464	154	132	6.7
SG	Bradley Beal	2325	96	112	6.1
SF	Paul Pierce	1800	139	108	4.0
SF	Otto Porter	1800	15	85	3.2
PF	Kris Humprhies	1608	132	133	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	1450	97	97	2.9
PF	Nenê	1430	102	90	2.7
PG	Andre Miller	1165	86	65	1.6
G/F	Glen Rice Jr.	1029	20	78	1.2
F/C	Drew Gooden	1002	106	100	2.1
G/F	Martell Webster	1000	77	74	1.5
POS	TEAM	19885	107	110	45.4

MIN = projected TOTAL minutes for the upcoming season

Projected kWins = how many wins that player will contribute based on his projected PPA and projected total minutes.

Over the past few seasons, the Wizards’ front office has converted the team from being one of the league’s youngest to being one of the league’s oldest. Gortat, Nenê, Pierce, Gooden and Miller all figure to play prominent roles this season, and all are past 30. Well past 30 for Pierce and Miller.

Projections for Porter and Rice were difficult because they played so little last season. For both, I elected to throw out their rookie numbers and rely instead on projections based on the rookie seasons of the players they were most like from college. Using the rookie numbers would lower Porter’s projected PPA to 66 and Rice’s to 30. That would drop Washington’s projected win total 43.8.

Note that I didn’t include Kevin Seraphin, Garrett Temple or Rasual Butler in the above table. They’ll get some minutes along the way, but — barring several catastrophic injuries — none should see enough court time to have a major effect on the team’s fortunes. For those interested, this is what I project for the end-of-the-bench trio:

Garrett Temple: 33
Kevin Seraphin: 49
Rasual Butler: 55

I can hear the cockeyed optimists already: “Why do you just assume the old guys will get worse? What if they maintain for a year?” Quick answer (and one I’ve given before): athletes past 30 tend to two things — get hurt and get worse.

But, let’s say the “Ancients” are able to do this season what they did last year. In that event, Washington’s projected win total would climb to 48.5. Which would be hella fun.

On the other hand, there are scenarios where there are more injuries than expected, younger players don’t make anticipated improvements and/or older players decline more steeply. That gives a potential “bottom” of 40.7 wins.

Simple Rating System Projection

POS	PLAYER	MIN	LAST SEASON PPA	SRS PROJECTED PPA	PROJECTED kWins
PG	John Wall	2812	139	143	8.3
C	Marcin Gortat	2464	154	144	7.3
SG	Bradley Beal	2325	96	111	5.3
SF	Paul Pierce	1800	139	117	4.3
SF	Otto Porter	1800	15	63	2.3
PF	Kris Humphries	1608	132	133	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	1450	97	135	4.0
PF	Nene Hilario	1430	102	102	3.0
PG	Andre Miller	1165	86	108	2.6
G/F	Glen Rice	1029	20	82	1.7
F/C	Drew Gooden	1002	106	118	2.4
G/F	Martell Webster	1000	77	102	2.1
G/F	Rasual Butler	0	63	81	0.0
C	Kevin Seraphin	0	35	53	0.0
G	Garrett Temple	0	24	54	0.0
POS	TEAM	19885	107	117	47.9

The guys over at Basketball-Reference have up Simple Rating System projected stats for everyone who played in the NBA last season. Go here for an explanation. They don’t estimate minutes, which I can understand because it’s frigging hard to do.

The SRS approach is more optimistic than the one I used — at least at the bottom line. SRS generally predicts less of a decline for older players, but also not as much improvement from the younger ones. The SRS approach would suggest the Wizards will win 48 games this season — with a low end prediction of 43 and a high of 52.

Here’s a table comparing results from the two approaches:

POS	PLAYER	DOPP PPA	SRS PPA	DOPP kWINS	SRS kWINS
PG	John Wall	156	143	9.0	8.3
C	Marcin Gortat	132	144	6.7	7.3
SG	Bradley Beal	112	111	6.1	5.3
SF	Paul Pierce	108	117	4.0	4.3
SF	Otto Porter	85	63	3.2	2.3
PF	Kris Humprhies	133	133	4.4	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	97	135	2.9	4.0
PF	Nenê	90	102	2.7	3.0
PG	Andre Miller	65	108	1.6	2.6
G/F	Glen Rice Jr.	78	82	1.2	1.7
F/C	Drew Gooden	100	118	2.1	2.4
G/F	Martell Webster	74	102	1.5	2.1
G/F	Rasual Butler	55	81	0.0	0.0
C	Kevin Seraphin	49	53	0.0	0.0
G	Garrett Temple	33	54	0.0	0.0

DOPP PPA = projected PPA using the Statistical Doppelganger approach

SRS PPA = projected PPA using the Simple Rating System numbers published by Basketball-Reference

DOPP kWINS = projected individual wins contributed using the Statistical Doppelganger approach

SRS kWINS = projected individual wins contributed using the Simple Rating System numbers published by Basketball-Reference

Final Word

In the end, I’m using my own projection system. Last year, I projected the Wizards would win 43 — they won 44, albeit not exactly in ways that I expected. I’ve refined my projection system (I hope), although I’m hoping the team outperforms my prediction by a wide margin.

While still lacking an elite producer, the Wizards could be a tough out in the playoffs when rotations shorten and there’s more rest between games (especially in the first round). If they can get there healthy, of course.

I’m projecting the Wizards will win between 41 and 48 games this season. Final projection: 45 wins and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

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