The First Draft by Kevin Broom
The first draft of everything is ****. — Hemingway
I FINALLY made time to write something. This piece is about how the Wizards have been better without John Wall, and how he could help them get better yet by making some simple adjustments to how he plays.
Specifically:
Some of the comments are a real treat.
With an average starting unit and the NBA’s worst bench, the Wizards are lurching toward an inevitable appointment with the 2017 draft lottery — assuming team president Ernie Grunfeld doesn’t trade the pick for the next Markieff Morris in an all-out dash for 9th or 10th.
The disastrous bench was in the works at least a couple years, as the franchise’s top strategists laid plans to have loads of cap space for an offseason in which almost half the league would be able to sign a maximum salary free agent. Their subsequent moves to restock the roster seem to reflect one of the defining characteristics of the Grunfeld era: an elite ability to misdiagnose the source of the team’s problems.
Missing the playoffs in 2015-16, according to public statements by Grunfeld and team owner Ted Leonsis, was due to injuries, a bad bench and poor chemistry caused by having so many players in the final year of their contracts. And they shoveled some blame on the coaching as well.
In reality, the Wizards were affected less by injuries last season than most teams in the league, and their bench was about average. I’ll defer to those closer to the team on the cause of whatever chemistry problems existed, although it’s worth noting that multi-year contracts haven’t seemed to fix the issue.
What’s happening this year? Their starters are (like last year) about average, but their bench is a worst in the league catastrophe. They’re the Secretariat of bad benches.
So far this season, the Wizards starters — Wall, Beal, Porter, Morris and Gortat — have a minutes weighted Player Production Average (PPA) of 135. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45. That’s slightly better than the league average starting group (PPA: 132 so far), and ranks 12th. Not elite, but not terrible either.
The bench’s minutes weighted PPA: 28. The average bench: 66. The second worst bench belongs to Memphis, and its PPA is 44. These are the only two teams with benches that rate below replacement level. To put this in perspective, Trey Burke’s PPA this season is 28. Kevin Seraphin, who ended his Wizards career with PPA scores of 35 and 38 would be an upgrade. Kwame Brown was never this bad in Washington. Even Ike Austin (remember him?) managed a 35 with the Bullets.
The gap between Washington’s starters and bench is the third largest, behind the Clippers who have the second best starting unit and fourth worst bench, and Golden State, which has the best starters and the sixth best bench. How good are the Warriors? They’re starting five has a PPA of 211 — 32 points better than Washington’s best player.
This is the team built by Grunfeld and Leonsis, and their cherished Plan. It’s a disaster — not because of injuries or bad luck, but because of a series of poor decisions.
Player Production Average
There is some good news. Wall is having the best season of his career, Porter is producing at an All-Star level, and Beal is healthy and productive.
Marcin Gortat’s production is down, but I don’t think it’s related to aging (I’ll write about this next time). Morris has been worse than expected. To the numbers…
| PLAYER | GMS | MPG | 11/8 | 11/21 | PPA |
| Otto Porter | 20 | 34.4 | 173 | 177 | 179 |
| John Wall | 18 | 35.9 | 168 | 167 | 171 |
| Bradley Beal | 17 | 34.7 | 66 | 92 | 131 |
| Marcin Gortat | 20 | 35.4 | 135 | 146 | 130 |
| Danuel House | 1 | 1.0 | 119 | 116 | |
| Sheldon McClellan | 7 | 11.1 | 478 | 88 | 81 |
| Markieff Morris | 20 | 31.7 | 67 | 78 | 59 |
| Marcus Thornton | 19 | 19.5 | 31 | 41 | 50 |
| Kelly Oubre | 19 | 15.5 | 18 | 17 | 41 |
| Tomas Satoransky | 18 | 16.6 | 18 | 43 | 29 |
| Trey Burke | 16 | 11.6 | -48 | 28 | 28 |
| Andrew Nicholson | 14 | 10.1 | 33 | 35 | 9 |
| Jason Smith | 19 | 11.6 | -93 | -42 | -23 |
| Ian Mahinmi | 1 | 14.0 | -98 | ||
| Daniel Ochefu | 3 | 2.7 | -181 | -119 | -117 |
No time for major analysis the next couple weeks, but…here’s the Player Production Average update. It’s not pretty.
| Player | GMS | MPG | LW | PPA |
| Otto Porter | 12 | 35.3 | 173 | 177 |
| John Wall | 10 | 33.1 | 168 | 167 |
| Marcin Gortat | 12 | 34.8 | 135 | 146 |
| Danuel House | 1 | 1.0 | 119 | |
| Bradley Beal | 9 | 32.1 | 66 | 92 |
| Sheldon McClellan | 6 | 12.7 | 478 | 88 |
| Markieff Morris | 12 | 31.0 | 67 | 78 |
| Tomas Satoransky | 12 | 19.3 | 18 | 43 |
| Marcus Thornton | 12 | 21.4 | 31 | 41 |
| Andrew Nicholson | 9 | 11.1 | 33 | 35 |
| Trey Burke | 10 | 13.0 | -48 | 28 |
| Kelly Oubre | 11 | 13.5 | 18 | 17 |
| Jason Smith | 11 | 10.9 | -93 | -42 |
| Daniel Ochefu | 3 | 2.7 | -181 | -119 |
The NBA is still mostly in Small Sample Size Theater, but they’re closing in on the “it’s real” portion of the early season.
Good news: Otto Porter and John Wall have been outstanding, though I remain concerned with Wall’s stratospheric turnover rate. Marcin Gortat has been good despite a radical drop in his usage rate vs. his career norms. The other starters (Bradley Beal and Markieff Morris) both rate below average, but at least improved since the first update.
The bad news: every other player in the rotation rates at or below replacement level.
The team actually has played a difficult schedule (about 1.09 points per game tougher than average). Unfortunately, they’ve been outscored by 3.42 points per game, suggesting the Wizards have been 2.33 points per game worse than average. Overall, they’ve played at about the level of a 32-win team over an 82-game season — just a little behind the 34.5* wins per season they’ve averaged under the leadership of Ernie Grunfeld.
* This includes pro-rating 2011-12, the lockout-shortened 66-game season, to an 82-game schedule.
The Wizards fired Randy Wittman for this? Six games into the tenure of Scott Brooks, the team sits 14th in the East with a 1-5 record. Washington’s futility is comprehensive — they rank 23rd in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
There are four key team stats that determine who wins and loses in the NBA. Here’s where the Wizards rank so far on offense:
On defense:
Don’t get too encouraged by their top ranking in defensive turnovers. Forcing turnovers isn’t necessarily an indicator of defensive effectiveness. In the NBA, defense is overwhelmingly about shot defense. And the Wizards are dead last in that category so far.
Remember the old days when Wizards fans wanted Wittman fired because the team took two-point jumpers instead of threes? Welcome to the new Wizards, same as the old. So far this season, they’re 28th in three-point attempt rate, but have attempted the fourth most two-point jumpers.
On defense, they’re still keeping opponents out of the paint (they have the fourth lowest defensive at-rim attempt rate), but they’re allowing the second highest opponent three-point attempt rate, and the worst opponent 3FG%.
Back to those four key stats for a moment: while there are four, they’re not created equal. Dean Oliver, who first wrote about these factors in a comprehensive manner, determined these approximate historic weights: shooting 40%, turnovers 25%, rebounding 20%, free throws 15%.
In recent years, those values have shifted, according to my analysis. Last season, shooting was worth about 55%, rebounding 18%, turnovers 15%, and free throws 12%.
This is a long and tortured way of saying the Wizards are bad where it matters most. Being worst in shooting differential and 25th in turnover differential overwhelms their decent rebounding and break-even free throw rate.
Player Production Average
Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.
PPA is pace neutral, and weighs a player’s performance per possession against the performance of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of linear weight metrics, the actual values for each statistical category floats a bit from season to season based on league performance.
PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45. Read more here.
Want some good news, look at Otto Porter, John Wall, and (to a lesser extent) Marcin Gortat. The first two have been highly productive so far. Gortat is the team’s only other above-average performer through six games — although his production has been markedly lower than it was last season.
Wall and Porter offer an interesting contrast. Wall’s high PPA is built on volume — he makes LOTS of plays, both good and bad. He uses more than a third of the team’s possessions when he’s in the game, and he’s racking up rebounds, assists, steals and blocks at a prolific rate. He also sports an astronomical turnover rate (7.8 per 100 team possessions).
Porter is all efficiency. He makes the few shots he attempts. He grabs rebounds at a decent rate, plays solid defense, and avoids turnovers and fouls.
The bad news: everyone else. Markieff Morris and Bradley Beal have been terrible, the bench just about useless.
Ernie Grunfeld’s Plan B offseason acquisitions are off to a rough start. Ian Mahinmi is sidelined with injury, Trey Burke has been the next Eric Maynor (but worse), and Jason Smith has been…well…Jason Smith. Tomas Satoransky needs more time to figure out the NBA game.
The numbers:
| PLAYER | GMS | MPG | PPA |
| Sheldon McClellan | 2 | 3.0 | 478 |
| Otto Porter | 6 | 34.3 | 173 |
| John Wall | 5 | 34.4 | 168 |
| Marcin Gortat | 6 | 36.2 | 135 |
| Markieff Morris | 6 | 34.0 | 67 |
| Bradley Beal | 6 | 34.8 | 66 |
| Andrew Nicholson | 5 | 14.0 | 33 |
| Marcus Thornton | 6 | 17.0 | 31 |
| Tomas Satoransky | 6 | 13.8 | 18 |
| Kelly Oubre | 5 | 15.0 | 18 |
| Trey Burke | 6 | 11.5 | -48 |
| Jason Smith | 5 | 10.0 | -93 |
| Daniel Ochefu | 1 | 4.0 | -181 |
Yeah, I know the season is underway. Many teams have three games in the books; the Spurs already have four. This still serves as my Wizards preview, because while I’ve watched their first two contests (both losses), I’ve used nothing from those games in the projection.
The approach this year is similar to the one I used for previous seasons: every player gets run through my statistical doppelganger machine, which spits out similar players from my historical database (similar production at similar age). There’s a process to weed out players with dissimilar career patterns — it makes no sense to compare a guy who stunk four years and suddenly had a terrific season to a guy like John Wall (for example) who’s been consistently quite good.
Once the list of “similars” is assembled, the system looks at the future of those players as a guide to the potential performance of the players being projected for the upcoming season. When the predicted performance (expressed in terms of Player Production Average — PPA for short) for each individual player has been completed, I estimate minutes (using an approach that must be similar to Kevin Pelton’s since the results were so similar). That gets translated into individual wins, which are totaled to team wins. Wins league-wide are capped at the number of wins available in a season (1230).
What’s new this year? Volume. For the first time, I projected the top 10-12 rotation players of every team. In previous seasons, I ran numbers for only the Wizards. This year — in a never-ending quest to make wrong predictions — I looked at everyone.
The Wizards
The Wizards spent two years hording cap space for an offseason in which nearly half the league would have sufficient room under the cap to pursue free agents with a maximum salary offer. The big prize was hometown hero Kevin Durant, who declined to even meet with the team. The team’s braintrust went after Al Horford (who signed in Boston) before managing to get Ian Mahinmi — a guy who is generously called a “backup” coming off a career year who’s about to turn 30.
Their other roster moves were less inspiring: free agent deals for Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith, and a trade for Trey Burke. They did manage to sign international guard Tomas Satoransky to a reasonable contract.
Here’s a quick look at what my projection system had to say about this year’s roster:
A potential wildcard: new head coach Scott Brooks. Previous coach Randy Wittman had his strengths, but would have ranked in the bottom third in the NBA. Brooks figures to be better, but the relevant research suggests the differences between professional coaches is pretty small. The exceptions are the very best and very worst coaches, but there’s a broad middle ground where coaches help a little or hurt a little, but don’t fundamentally alter their teams’ trajectories. While I think Brooks is an upgrade from Wittman, I also think they both occupy that middle ground.
Options
As I projected the entire league, I found that my process tended to push each team back towards the middle. The gap between the strongest team (Golden State) and the weakest (Phoenix) was about 26.7 wins. In recent years, the difference has been almost double that amount. So, I came up with an alternate method that ranked every team by their projected production, and then applied the average win total for that rank over the past five seasons.
The Wizards project to be ninth team in the East, and 19th in the NBA. Don’t go betting the mortgage, because my approach produced some results that are at odds with my gut and with predictions made by others I respect, such as:
For the Wizards, the win total from my projection system: 41.0. From the average record by league rank approach: 37.5. Take your pick.
My prediction: 41 wins and 9th place in the East.
After spending two years carefully clearing cap space for an offseason in which nearly half the league would be able to have room to add a maximum salary free agency, the Washington Wizards top free agent target (Kevin Durant) declined to meet with them, forcing the team to turn to plan B.
Plan B could take a variety of forms as the front office tries to make the best of a disappointing situation. The primary options:
There are perils with each approach. The first seems to be the one they’re going to pursue, and it’s the least realistic way to build a contending team. Their problem this season wasn’t a bad bench or depth, it was a lack of elite talent. They could get some good luck and see significant development from Bradley Beal, Kelly Oubre, Otto Porter or John Wall, but more likely they’ll end up “contending” for the playoffs.
The other two are somewhat compatible. They could pursue an upper-level free agent, and then fall back to a Plan C of “Wait ’til Next year” if they whiff.
In my analysis, the Wizards could use upgrades in the starting lineup at shooting guard and power forward. They’ve publicly committed themselves to re-signing Beal, and have spent some time congratulating themselves on using their draft pick to acquire Markieff Morris, but those are the actual needs. Wall is a very good point guard, Marcin Gortat is a solid center, and Otto Porter is a criminally underrated small forward.
Here’s how I’d prioritize the team needs:
So, who are some potential free agent targets? I identified some who are worth the money, likely bargains, and likely cap albatrosses over at Vice. But, here are some free agents who intrigue me for the Wizards.
Predicting deep-discount bargains is a big challenge because there’s so much free agent money available. For example, it’d be fun to take a flyer on Spurs big man Boban Marjanovic. He was wildly productive last season, but in 504 minutes of mostly garbage time. Could he be effective with more playing time? It’s an intriguing question, but it could be an expensive experiment given the ocean of free agent money and the thin free agent talent.
Some possible bargains, according to my Diamond Rating (a metric that attempts to identify players who were productive in limited playing time that might perform well in an expanded role)…
You may have noticed those are all big men. The backcourt free agent group looks pretty thin in my analysis. The best “bargain” candidate is Seth Curry, who performed well in just 725 minutes for the Kings. Another intriguing name is Indiana’s Solomon Hill, who might be a tweener without a position, but might also be a small-ball PF.
All this written, I can’t say I’m optimistic about the Wizards and free agency. The Ernie Grunfeld-led front office has shown a propensity for suboptimal moves. My guess is they’ll land Ryan Anderson, and then seek to fill out the bench with veterans. I don’t expect them to pursue the lather-rinse-repeat strategy and try to roll cap space into next offseason. There’s internal pressure to make the playoffs, and I anticipate low-risk moves designed to achieve that modest goal.
The surest way to get disappointed is to start with unrealistically high expectations. For exhibit gazillion, I present the 2015-16 Washington Wizards.
During the preseason, there was a fascinating disconnect between fans, media observers, and my statistical analysis. Many, including some of my stat pals at APBRmetrics thought the Wizards would be pretty good. The team seemed to fit a familiar narrative — they’d been bad, they’d gotten a taste of the playoffs (and even won a first round series) in 2013-14, and then had been better yet in 2014-15 (complete with a first round sweep of the Toronto Raptors). Fueled by All-Star John Wall and his young backcourt buddy Bradley Beal, the Wizards would take the next step and become Eastern Conference Contenders.
Over on the message board at RealGM, 76 members predicted the team’s final record. The average prediction: 48.0 wins. (Strictly speaking, 77 members made a prediction. I’m removing my own because it fits into a different category). A helpful soul compiled nine media predictions (strictly speaking, it was eight plus a betting service’s over/under line; also there are ten predictions listed, but 538’s belongs in a different category), which were only slightly less optimistic: 46.6 wins.
Roll all of those up, and it’s 85 predictions ranging from a high of 56 to a low of 37. The group pick: 47.9 wins.
The APBRmetrics crowd was less optimistic — average prediction: 44.8 wins.
My stat-based model predicted 41.4 wins, but I rounded up to 42 in my preseason analysis at Vice. The guys at 538.com predicted 41 wins.
What’s gone wrong? Nothing unexpected, really. Wall’s been maybe a little less productive than anticipated, but he’s quite close to my preseason prediction. Beal hasn’t been as good as I’d predicted — and he got hurt more than I’d expected — but that’s counterbalanced by Marcin Gortat and Otto Porter being healthier and more productive than projected.
So, was it injuries that doomed the Wizards? No. While the Wizards are near the league lead in games missed due to injury, most of the games were missed by bottom of the rotation guys — Alan Anderson, Drew Gooden, Gary Neal. Yes, Nenê and Beal missed their usual allotment. But among players who were on the roster since preseason, they’re fourth and sixth in per possession production. Washington’s three most productive players per possession (Wall, Gortat and Porter) have missed a total of 13 games.
There’s another whopping problem with the “injuries done ’em in” narrative: it’s hopelessly one-sided. For example, when I ran an estimate during the All-Star break on how many additional games the Wizards might have won at full health, I looked only at the Wizards. To do this analysis properly, however, it’s nonsensical to ignore injuries suffered by other teams.
Not having time today for a complete analysis of my own, I turn to ManGamesLost.com. That site lists the Wizards as having the third most games missed due to injury this season. They have two measures of the effect those injuries have had on the team. The Wizards rank 21st in one, and 19th in the other. In other words, injuries have cost Washington LESS in the win column than the average NBA team.
To put it more simply: the injury excuse is bullshit.
So what went wrong? Again, nothing surprising. Most of the players performed to reasonable preseason expectations. The team had been very average in preceding seasons, and several teams in the East improved while the Wizards tried to maintain their averageness.
The reason the Wizards are so disappointing is that fans and media (and apparently the players) set about constructing a narrative of a surging franchise. Unfortunately, the foundation for that narrative consisted of inflated win totals in a historically weak conference, and a massive overestimation of the importance of first round playoff wins.
Keep in mind that the playoffs represent tiny sample sizes. Last season’s postseason lasted 10 games. Washington’s record: 6-4. The previous season, it was 11 games. Their record: 6-5. At any other time in a season, such a performance would be expected for an average team. When it happens in the playoffs, it becomes a portent, an omen. And there’s a dose of that curious one-sidedness when it comes to injuries.
Many said (repeatedly) something to the effect of: “The Wizards might have beat the Hawks if only Wall hadn’t hurt his hand.” Acknowledged far less often is the reality that Washington’s first-round sweep of Toronto was helped by a serious back injury that hobbled Raptors star Kyle Lowry. If we’re going to imagine “what if” scenarios for a full-health Wizards against Atlanta, we also ought to recognize they might not have gotten out of the first round against a full-health Raptors squad.
With five games to go, the Wizards have a slim (about 2%) chance of reaching the postseason. All they need do is win out while Detroit loses three of their remaining four. But, as they limp toward the lottery (with the pick likely going to Phoenix), the team still embodies what I wrote in the preseason: it’s a mediocre roster that lacks an elite producer.
Player Production Average
The ratings below are from a metric I developed called Player Production Average (PPA). In PPA, players are credited for things they do that help a team win, and debited for things that don’t, each in proportion to what causes teams to win and lose. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes an adjustment based on the level of competition faced when a player is on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
League-wide PPA scores through games played 04/05/16 are here.
| PLAYER | GMS | MPG | 11/10 | 11/22 | 12/3 | 12/13 | 12/21 | 12/30 | 1/6 | 1/13 | 1/27 | 2/11 | 3/1 | 3/14 | 4/5 |
| Marcin Gortat | 71 | 30.3 | 91 | 112 | 128 | 133 | 132 | 138 | 147 | 145 | 148 | 151 | 172 | 169 | 171 |
| John Wall | 77 | 36.2 | 153 | 129 | 136 | 168 | 157 | 157 | 149 | 144 | 142 | 146 | 153 | 148 | 145 |
| Otto Porter | 70 | 30.8 | 144 | 158 | 104 | 116 | 107 | 115 | 122 | 127 | 130 | 130 | 134 | 126 | 131 |
| J.J. Hickson | 11 | 7.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 96 | 108 |
| Markieff Morris | 24 | 26.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 41 | 58 | 95 |
| Bradley Beal | 52 | 31.3 | 128 | 108 | 96 | 87 | 87 | 86 | 85 | 86 | 98 | 108 | 94 | 94 | 95 |
| Jared Dudley | 76 | 26.1 | 36 | 92 | 90 | 85 | 98 | 103 | 100 | 105 | 99 | 104 | 106 | 98 | 89 |
| Nene Hilario | 53 | 19.1 | 58 | 90 | 80 | 74 | 79 | 78 | 79 | 88 | 92 | 84 | 86 | 90 | 82 |
| Ramon Sessions | 77 | 19.6 | 131 | 119 | 84 | 90 | 87 | 89 | 88 | 91 | 90 | 89 | 88 | 85 | 76 |
| Alan Anderson | 9 | 14.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97 | 90 | 68 |
| Marcus Thornton | 11 | 12.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 65 |
| Garrett Temple | 75 | 24.6 | 38 | 106 | 57 | 54 | 70 | 63 | 68 | 79 | 79 | 69 | 59 | 56 | 57 |
| Jarell Eddie | 22 | 4.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 153 | 119 | 113 | 110 | 86 | 68 | 51 | 55 |
| Kelly Oubre | 59 | 9.8 | -103 | -4 | -40 | -44 | 9 | 37 | 43 | 39 | 36 | 29 | 22 | 25 | 27 |
| Drew Gooden | 28 | 10.6 | 99 | 51 | 57 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 38 | 47 | 34 | 31 | 26 | 22 | 22 |
| DeJuan Blair | 29 | 7.5 | -345 | -129 | -112 | -45 | -34 | -38 | -38 | -28 | -6 | -15 | – | – | – |
| Gary Neal | 40 | 20.2 | 23 | 49 | 64 | 75 | 78 | 74 | 75 | 78 | 71 | 70 | 69 | – | – |
| Kris Humphries | 28 | 16.6 | 90 | 121 | 95 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 76 | – | – | – |
| Ryan Hollins | 5 | 9.6 | – | – | -40 | 60 | 59 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Good news: Gortat and Porter continue to play well. Leaving aside the issue of the crummy trade that acquired him, Markieff Morris has been solid after his first four games with the team.
Bad news: Wall remains significantly below the game’s elite performers, Beal continues to rate a bit below average, and key role players (Jared Dudley, Ramon Sessions and Nenê) have all seen production slip over the past few weeks.
In the “puzzling” category goes Randy Wittman’s playing time decisions. The team’s top lineup with more than 100 minutes this season has been Wall-Beal-Porter-Morris-Gortat. Their second best lineup is exactly the same except with Dudley instead of Morris. The second lineup has been together for precisely zero minutes over the past month.
Also puzzling has been the benching of Dudley, who has been a solid player for them throughout the season. Dudley seems ideal as a league average caliber player who gets around 24 minutes per game divided between SF and PF. The Wizards started him at PF much of the season, and have now slashed his minutes from 27.0 minutes per game through the first 72 games to just 14.0 over the last five — 4.5 minutes per game fewer than Garrett Temple.
In talking with fans, I’ve pulled up all kinds of information about Markieff Morris. Here are a few observations that came mostly from examining the claims made by folks who support the acquisition:
Player Production Average (PPA) is a metric I developed in which players are credited for things they do that help a team win, and debited for things that don’t, each in proportion to what causes teams to win and lose. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes an adjustment based on the level of competition faced when a player is on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
In a trade deadline deal, the Washington Wizards acquired power forward Markieff Morris from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for power forward Kris Humphries, forward/center DeJuan Blair, and a first round pick (protected through the top nine picks).
It’s a surprisingly high price to pay for a player who combines Morris’ lack of production with personality issues. It’s also a signal of the front office’s desperation to make the playoffs.
The issue, of course, is that first round pick. Humphries has been injured and below average this season; Blair apparently forgot how to play basketball when he arrived in DC.
What’s that pick going to be worth? Three or four years ago, I used PER to evaluate the expected value of draft picks. Picks 10-14 (where Washington’s pick is likely to fall when they miss the playoffs) have an average four-year PER of 14.5. Morris’ career PER: 14.8. In PER, average is 15.
According to PER, Morris’ peak (so far) was an 18.4 coming off the bench in 2013-14. He followed that up with a 15.8 last season, and an 11.1 this year. So hey, crummy players and a pick who might turn out to be average for a guy who’s been average and had some personal problems this year. Not bad, right?
Well, in my analysis Morris hasn’t been that good. According to Player Production Average (PPA), the metric I developed, Morris has a well-below average 79 (in PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45). Here’s his year-by-year PPA scores:
What’s behind the difference between PPA and PER? Three key items:
What to like about the trade? Morris isn’t old — at 26, he should be entering his prime years. And he’s signed at a flat $8 million per year for the next three seasons after this one. With the cap expected to rise $40 million over the next two seasons, that salary could end up being a relative bargain even with meh production.
What kind of player are the Wizards getting? I ran Morris’ best year (2014-15) through my statistical doppelganger machine — just waving away his crummy play this year. The machine kicked out names like Lamond Murray, Keith Van Horn, Tim Thomas, Morris Peterson, Al Harrington, and Thaddeus Young, with repeat seasons from Thomas and Harrington.
Bucks fans probably remember Grunfeld trading for Thomas, and then awarding him a massive contract — despite thoroughly pedestrian play from Thomas.
Best case scenario, the Wizards get the Morris of 2014-15. He was inefficient on offense and was basically average in the non-scoring part of his game, but he’ll at least be as good as Jared Dudley overall.
Quick addendum: I used PPA to project the Wizards record over their final 31 games assuming they’d get the Morris from 2014-15. That’s a PPA of 102, and represents the best he’s played over a sustained stretch.
For the projection, I assumed perfect health (no one misses any games for any reason), and the following nine-man rotation:
After a bit of math, my PPA Wins Projection Machine says Washington will go 16-15 over its final 31 games. That would leave the team with a 39-43 record, and a likely ninth or tenth place finish. Odds are: Phoenix would get the pick in this year’s draft.
The Wizards are not going to make the playoffs this year. They’re not quite as good as they’ve been the past couple years, which is to say they’re a bit worse than mediocre.
Wizards fans — and perhaps the Wizards themselves — are hanging their dreams of postseason participation on some fragile hooks:
Neither factor holds as much promise for the Wizards as adherents might imagine. The schedule does get easier, but the Wizards are five games below .500 because they’ve played below average basketball through their first 51 games, not because the schedule was difficult.
Before the All-Star break, Washington’s opponents were 0.67 points per game better than average. That’s the approximate quality of a 43-win team over an 82-game schedule. Against this very slightly better than average level of competition, the Wizards got outscored by 2.7 points per game. Which means Washington performed about two points per game worse than average.
The schedule does get easier. Opponents the rest of the way have been a point per game worse than average the rest of the way — about the quality of a 38-win team over an 82-game schedule. In other words, the Wizards are going from playing the approximate quality of an eighth or ninth place team to playing opponents the approximate quality of a ninth or tenth place team.
There are a couple problems, though. First, the Wizards have been worse by a point per game than the aggregate of their remaining opponents. And second, 17 of their remaining games are on the road, and the post All-Star break sprint starts with three games in three nights.
Run the numbers on their remaining schedule, and at this point they’d be the favorite in 11 of their remaining 31 games. If you believe (as I do) the real quality of the team is about average, they’ll probably win between 14 and 17 games the rest of the way – meaning they’d finish with 37 to 40 wins, and would miss the playoffs.
So what about the injuries? The Wizards have indeed lost the NBA’s highest number of player games to injury so far this season. Unfortunately, the players who missed games weren’t the team’s major producers of wins, and their replacements did a reasonable job filling in.
Prior to the All-Star break, I used PPA to quantify how much injuries cost the team. That involved reapportioning minutes (taking playing time from Garrett Temple, Gary Neal and others, and assigning it to players who missed time like Bradley Beal, Nenê, and others). Based on the performance levels of the players involved, I estimate the team would have won two additional games with perfect health.
Two wins is a significant number, but it wouldn’t change the overall trajectory of the season. Washington would be 25-26 – closer to eighth in the East, but still in ninth or tenth place. Even with an easier schedule the rest of the way, the numbers in this “ideal health” scenario would project the Wizards to finish with 41 to 42 wins, and a likely ninth place finish.
Washington still has a theoretical chance to finish eighth. Chicago and Charlotte have suffered injuries — Jimmy Butler’s being far more damaging to the Bulls than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s to the Hornets. But, the eighth seed in the East is going to need a minimum of 42 wins, and to do even that well, the Wizards would need to transmogrify from playing like a 37-win team to playing like a 50-win team.
Here’s a simple table showing the task the Wizards have created for themselves. It’s not impossible for them to make the playoffs, but it is highly improbable. The W82 column shows the quality level the Wizards would need to reach the target wins. So, to reach 44 wins this season, they’d need to finish 21-10, which is the approximate level of a 56-win team over an 82-game schedule.
| TARGET | NEED | W82 | ||
| W | L | W | L | |
| 44 | 38 | 21 | 10 | 56 |
| 43 | 39 | 20 | 11 | 53 |
| 42 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 50 |
Player Production Average
The ratings below are from a metric I developed called Player Production Average (PPA). In PPA, players are credited for things they do that help a team win, and debited for things that don’t, each in proportion to what causes teams to win and lose. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes an adjustment based on the level of competition faced when a player is on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
League-wide PPA scores through games played 2/11/16 are here.
| PLAYER | GMS | MPG | 11/10 | 11/22 | 12/3 | 12/13 | 12/21 | 12/30 | 1/6 | 1/13 | 1/27 | 2/11 |
| Marcin Gortat | 45 | 31.2 | 91 | 112 | 128 | 133 | 132 | 138 | 147 | 145 | 148 | 151 |
| John Wall | 51 | 36.1 | 153 | 129 | 136 | 168 | 157 | 157 | 149 | 144 | 142 | 146 |
| Otto Porter | 44 | 31.0 | 144 | 158 | 104 | 116 | 107 | 115 | 122 | 127 | 130 | 130 |
| Bradley Beal | 30 | 31.8 | 128 | 108 | 96 | 87 | 87 | 86 | 85 | 86 | 98 | 108 |
| Jared Dudley | 50 | 28.9 | 36 | 92 | 90 | 85 | 98 | 103 | 100 | 105 | 99 | 104 |
| Ramon Sessions | 51 | 20.4 | 131 | 119 | 84 | 90 | 87 | 89 | 88 | 91 | 90 | 89 |
| Jarell Eddie | 14 | 5.6 | – | – | – | – | – | 153 | 119 | 113 | 110 | 86 |
| Nene Hilario | 28 | 18.8 | 58 | 90 | 80 | 74 | 79 | 78 | 79 | 88 | 92 | 84 |
| Kris Humphries | 28 | 16.6 | 90 | 121 | 95 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 76 |
| Gary Neal | 40 | 20.2 | 23 | 49 | 64 | 75 | 78 | 74 | 75 | 78 | 71 | 70 |
| Garrett Temple | 49 | 25.6 | 38 | 106 | 57 | 54 | 70 | 63 | 68 | 79 | 79 | 69 |
| Drew Gooden | 22 | 12.4 | 99 | 51 | 57 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 38 | 47 | 34 | 31 |
| Kelly Oubre | 43 | 11.9 | -103 | -4 | -40 | -44 | 9 | 37 | 43 | 39 | 36 | 29 |
| DeJuan Blair | 29 | 7.5 | -345 | -129 | -112 | -45 | -34 | -38 | -38 | -28 | -6 | -15 |
| Ryan Hollins | 5 | 9.6 | – | – | -40 | 60 | 59 | – | – | – | – | – |
Beal has returned from injury playing well. Wall, Gortat and Porter continue to lead the team in production. The numbers indicate the Wizards actually have some decent professional players. What they lack is an elite producer. More on that coming tomorrow.
The First Draft by Kevin Broom 