Those Disappointing Wizards

wittman confused

The surest way to get disappointed is to start with unrealistically high expectations. For exhibit gazillion, I present the 2015-16 Washington Wizards.

During the preseason, there was a fascinating disconnect between fans, media observers, and my statistical analysis. Many, including some of my stat pals at APBRmetrics thought the Wizards would be pretty good. The team seemed to fit a familiar narrative — they’d been bad, they’d gotten a taste of the playoffs (and even won a first round series) in 2013-14, and then had been better yet in 2014-15 (complete with a first round sweep of the Toronto Raptors). Fueled by All-Star John Wall and his young backcourt buddy Bradley Beal, the Wizards would take the next step and become Eastern Conference Contenders.

Over on the message board at RealGM, 76 members predicted the team’s final record. The average prediction: 48.0 wins. (Strictly speaking, 77 members made a prediction. I’m removing my own because it fits into a different category). A helpful soul compiled nine media predictions (strictly speaking, it was eight plus a betting service’s over/under line; also there are ten predictions listed, but 538’s belongs in a different category), which were only slightly less optimistic: 46.6 wins.

Roll all of those up, and it’s 85 predictions ranging from a high of 56 to a low of 37. The group pick: 47.9 wins.

The APBRmetrics crowd was less optimistic — average prediction: 44.8 wins.

My stat-based model predicted 41.4 wins, but I rounded up to 42 in my preseason analysis at Vice. The guys at 538.com predicted 41 wins.

What’s gone wrong? Nothing unexpected, really. Wall’s been maybe a little less productive than anticipated, but he’s quite close to my preseason prediction. Beal hasn’t been as good as I’d predicted — and he got hurt more than I’d expected — but that’s counterbalanced by Marcin Gortat and Otto Porter being healthier and more productive than projected.

So, was it injuries that doomed the Wizards? No. While the Wizards are near the league lead in games missed due to injury, most of the games were missed by bottom of the rotation guys — Alan Anderson, Drew Gooden, Gary Neal. Yes, Nenê and Beal missed their usual allotment. But among players who were on the roster since preseason, they’re fourth and sixth in per possession production. Washington’s three most productive players per possession (Wall, Gortat and Porter) have missed a total of 13 games.

There’s another whopping problem with the “injuries done ’em in” narrative: it’s hopelessly one-sided. For example, when I ran an estimate during the All-Star break on how many additional games the Wizards might have won at full health, I looked only at the Wizards. To do this analysis properly, however, it’s nonsensical to ignore injuries suffered by other teams.

Not having time today for a complete analysis of my own, I turn to ManGamesLost.com. That site lists the Wizards as having the third most games missed due to injury this season. They have two measures of the effect those injuries have had on the team. The Wizards rank 21st in one, and 19th in the other. In other words, injuries have cost Washington LESS in the win column than the average NBA team.

To put it more simply: the injury excuse is bullshit.

So what went wrong? Again, nothing surprising. Most of the players performed to reasonable preseason expectations. The team had been very average in preceding seasons, and several teams in the East improved while the Wizards tried to maintain their averageness.

The reason the Wizards are so disappointing is that fans and media (and apparently the players) set about constructing a narrative of a surging franchise. Unfortunately, the foundation for that narrative consisted of inflated win totals in a historically weak conference, and a massive overestimation of the importance of first round playoff wins.

Keep in mind that the playoffs represent tiny sample sizes. Last season’s postseason lasted 10 games. Washington’s record: 6-4. The previous season, it was 11 games. Their record: 6-5. At any other time in a season, such a performance would be expected for an average team. When it happens in the playoffs, it becomes a portent, an omen. And there’s a dose of that curious one-sidedness when it comes to injuries.

Many said (repeatedly) something to the effect of: “The Wizards might have beat the Hawks if only Wall hadn’t hurt his hand.” Acknowledged far less often is the reality that Washington’s first-round sweep of Toronto was helped by a serious back injury that hobbled Raptors star Kyle Lowry. If we’re going to imagine “what if” scenarios for a full-health Wizards against Atlanta, we also ought to recognize they might not have gotten out of the first round against a full-health Raptors squad.

With five games to go, the Wizards have a slim (about 2%) chance of reaching the postseason. All they need do is win out while Detroit loses three of their remaining four. But, as they limp toward the lottery (with the pick likely going to Phoenix), the team still embodies what I wrote in the preseason: it’s a mediocre roster that lacks an elite producer.

Player Production Average

The ratings below are from a metric I developed called Player Production Average (PPA). In PPA, players are credited for things they do that help a team win, and debited for things that don’t, each in proportion to what causes teams to win and lose. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes an adjustment based on the level of competition faced when a player is on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

League-wide PPA scores through games played 04/05/16 are here.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	11/10	11/22	12/3	12/13	12/21	12/30	1/6	1/13	1/27	2/11	3/1	3/14	4/5
Marcin Gortat	71	30.3	91	112	128	133	132	138	147	145	148	151	172	169	171
John Wall	77	36.2	153	129	136	168	157	157	149	144	142	146	153	148	145
Otto Porter	70	30.8	144	158	104	116	107	115	122	127	130	130	134	126	131
J.J. Hickson	11	7.4	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	-14	96	108
Markieff Morris	24	26.2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	41	58	95
Bradley Beal	52	31.3	128	108	96	87	87	86	85	86	98	108	94	94	95
Jared Dudley	76	26.1	36	92	90	85	98	103	100	105	99	104	106	98	89
Nene Hilario	53	19.1	58	90	80	74	79	78	79	88	92	84	86	90	82
Ramon Sessions	77	19.6	131	119	84	90	87	89	88	91	90	89	88	85	76
Alan Anderson	9	14.4	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97	90	68
Marcus Thornton	11	12.3	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	-6	65
Garrett Temple	75	24.6	38	106	57	54	70	63	68	79	79	69	59	56	57
Jarell Eddie	22	4.5	–	–	–	–	–	153	119	113	110	86	68	51	55
Kelly Oubre	59	9.8	-103	-4	-40	-44	9	37	43	39	36	29	22	25	27
Drew Gooden	28	10.6	99	51	57	56	56	56	38	47	34	31	26	22	22
DeJuan Blair	29	7.5	-345	-129	-112	-45	-34	-38	-38	-28	-6	-15	–	–	–
Gary Neal	40	20.2	23	49	64	75	78	74	75	78	71	70	69	–	–
Kris Humphries	28	16.6	90	121	95	80	78	76	79	79	78	76	–	–	–
Ryan Hollins	5	9.6	–	–	-40	60	59	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Good news: Gortat and Porter continue to play well. Leaving aside the issue of the crummy trade that acquired him, Markieff Morris has been solid after his first four games with the team.

Bad news: Wall remains significantly below the game’s elite performers, Beal continues to rate a bit below average, and key role players (Jared Dudley, Ramon Sessions and Nenê) have all seen production slip over the past few weeks.

In the “puzzling” category goes Randy Wittman’s playing time decisions. The team’s top lineup with more than 100 minutes this season has been Wall-Beal-Porter-Morris-Gortat. Their second best lineup is exactly the same except with Dudley instead of Morris. The second lineup has been together for precisely zero minutes over the past month.

Also puzzling has been the benching of Dudley, who has been a solid player for them throughout the season. Dudley seems ideal as a league average caliber player who gets around 24 minutes per game divided between SF and PF. The Wizards started him at PF much of the season, and have now slashed his minutes from 27.0 minutes per game through the first 72 games to just 14.0 over the last five — 4.5 minutes per game fewer than Garrett Temple.

The Surprising Problem for the Wizards

wall frustrated

One of The Official Narratives of the 2015-16 Washington Wizards season is that point guard John Wall is terrific, but is getting sideswiped by a substandard supporting cast. Last month, The Washington Post’s Dan Steinberg lamented that, “The saddest thing here is that the Wizards might be in the process of sacrificing a year of John Wall’s prime.”

In Michael Lee’s excellent article at Yahoo!, Wall echoed Steinberg, saying: “I ain’t trying to waste a season.”

Adam McGinnis and I touched on the subject during our podcast last week.

Alas, as is the case with many Official Narratives, there are problems.

On a per-possession basis, Wall isn’t Washington’s most productive player. That honor goes to center Marcin Gortat. Because Wall plays five more minutes per game than Gortat, Wall leads the team in total production.
Wall is not an elite player.
The overall production difference between Wall (Washington’s top producer) and Gortat (second in total production) has been vastly overstated.
The quality of Wall’s “supporting cast” isn’t bad.

Wall’s PPA (see below) is 148 this year. Among players with at least 500 minutes this season, he ranks 54th. Among point guards, he ranks 11th. Wall has had stretches of dominant play, but his performance continues to be plagued by the same bugaboos he’s had throughout his career: turnovers, poor shot selection and poor shooting. Gortat, by the way, ranks 29th in PPA.

Wall isn’t an elite player. For the past few seasons seasons (including this one, most of the year), he’s rated as a top 8-10 point guard and a top 40-50 player overall. That’s very good, but well short of the impact from elite point guards and elite players. He could be great — he was in December, for example. But his performance game-to-game is a mix of fantastic and horrible. Which averages out to very good, not elite.

The average PPA of top total producers for each team is 179 — 31 points better than Wall. Among those top 30 producers, Wall ranks 24th in per possession production — ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Rajon Rondo, Nerlens Noel, Gordon Hayward, Tyson Chandler and Jordan Clarkson.

The average top producer has provided 22.0% of his team’s production. Wall is about average at 21.8%.

The average gap between a top producer and his team’s “number two” is about 4.5%. For Wall and Gortat, it’s 2.7%. Want a player who actually fits The Official Narrative? Try New Orleans where Anthony Davis has a PPA of 189, provides 26.3% of his team’s production, and (at 13.2%) sports the biggest drop to his team’s second most productive.

Since you’re wondering, the top five in total production shares:

Stephen Curry, GSW — 29.6%
Russell Westbrook, OKC — 26.7%
James Harden, HOU — 26.4%
Lebron James, CLE — 26.3%
Anthony Davis, NOP — 26.3%

And, here’s the top five in drop-off to “number two”:

Anthony Davis, NOP — 13.2%
Stephen Curry, GSW — 12.7%
James Harden, HOU — 8.5%
Kawhi Leonard, SAS — 8.3%
Kyle Lowry, TOR — 8.2%

Wall and the Wizards are 20th.

That’s all fine, you might be saying, but The Official Narrative isn’t necessarily that Wall’s “Robin” sucks, it’s that the roster lacks depth. That lack of depth means Wall has to carry a heavier load than other franchise leaders. Unfortunately, this is also wrong.

For this question, I calculated minutes-weighted PPA (mwPPA) for each team — after deducting the production of its top player. mwPPA provides a handy way of measuring the relative quality of each team’s roster.

The league average “supporting cast” posted an mwPPA of 92. The Wizards rank 14th so far this season with a 93. Since you were wondering, here’s the top five in supporting cast mwPPA:

SAS — 124
GSW — 121
ATL — 107
OKC — 105
BOS — 104

So, to recap:

Wall isn’t elite.
The gap between Wall’s total production and Gortat’s is smaller than average for a number one to a number two.
The Wizards “supporting cast” is mediocre, not terrible.

The real problem for the Wizards is in that first bullet. Their problem: they don’t have an elite player.

Player Production Average

League-wide PPA scores through games played 3/14/16 are here.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	11/10	11/22	12/3	12/13	12/21	12/30	1/6	1/13	1/27	2/11	3/1	3/14
Marcin Gortat	60	30.2	91	112	128	133	132	138	147	145	148	151	172	169
John Wall	66	35.9	153	129	136	168	157	157	149	144	142	146	153	148
Otto Porter	59	30.1	144	158	104	116	107	115	122	127	130	130	134	126
Jared Dudley	65	27.7	36	92	90	85	98	103	100	105	99	104	106	98
J.J. Hickson	6	7.5	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	-14	96
Bradley Beal	42	30.6	128	108	96	87	87	86	85	86	98	108	94	94
Nene Hilario	42	18.8	58	90	80	74	79	78	79	88	92	84	86	90
Alan Anderson	8	14.0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97	90
Ramon Sessions	66	20.3	131	119	84	90	87	89	88	91	90	89	88	85
Markieff Morris	14	26.0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	41	58
Garrett Temple	64	25.4	38	106	57	54	70	63	68	79	79	69	59	56
Jarell Eddie	21	4.7	–	–	–	–	–	153	119	113	110	86	68	51
Kelly Oubre	53	10.7	-103	-4	-40	-44	9	37	43	39	36	29	22	25
Drew Gooden	28	10.6	99	51	57	56	56	56	38	47	34	31	26	22
Marcus Thornton	3	15.0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	-6
Ryan Hollins	5	9.6	–	–	-40	60	59	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Kris Humphries	28	16.6	90	121	95	80	78	76	79	79	78	76	–	–
Gary Neal	40	20.2	23	49	64	75	78	74	75	78	71	70	69	69
DeJuan Blair	29	7.5	-345	-129	-112	-45	-34	-38	-38	-28	-6	-15	–	–

Reality vs. the Wizards

The Wizards are not going to make the playoffs this year. They’re not quite as good as they’ve been the past couple years, which is to say they’re a bit worse than mediocre.

Wizards fans — and perhaps the Wizards themselves — are hanging their dreams of postseason participation on some fragile hooks:

the schedule gets easier, and
key Wizards players have returned from injury.

Neither factor holds as much promise for the Wizards as adherents might imagine. The schedule does get easier, but the Wizards are five games below .500 because they’ve played below average basketball through their first 51 games, not because the schedule was difficult.

Before the All-Star break, Washington’s opponents were 0.67 points per game better than average. That’s the approximate quality of a 43-win team over an 82-game schedule. Against this very slightly better than average level of competition, the Wizards got outscored by 2.7 points per game. Which means Washington performed about two points per game worse than average.

The schedule does get easier. Opponents the rest of the way have been a point per game worse than average the rest of the way — about the quality of a 38-win team over an 82-game schedule. In other words, the Wizards are going from playing the approximate quality of an eighth or ninth place team to playing opponents the approximate quality of a ninth or tenth place team.

There are a couple problems, though. First, the Wizards have been worse by a point per game than the aggregate of their remaining opponents. And second, 17 of their remaining games are on the road, and the post All-Star break sprint starts with three games in three nights.

Run the numbers on their remaining schedule, and at this point they’d be the favorite in 11 of their remaining 31 games. If you believe (as I do) the real quality of the team is about average, they’ll probably win between 14 and 17 games the rest of the way – meaning they’d finish with 37 to 40 wins, and would miss the playoffs.

So what about the injuries? The Wizards have indeed lost the NBA’s highest number of player games to injury so far this season. Unfortunately, the players who missed games weren’t the team’s major producers of wins, and their replacements did a reasonable job filling in.

Prior to the All-Star break, I used PPA to quantify how much injuries cost the team. That involved reapportioning minutes (taking playing time from Garrett Temple, Gary Neal and others, and assigning it to players who missed time like Bradley Beal, Nenê, and others). Based on the performance levels of the players involved, I estimate the team would have won two additional games with perfect health.

Two wins is a significant number, but it wouldn’t change the overall trajectory of the season. Washington would be 25-26 – closer to eighth in the East, but still in ninth or tenth place. Even with an easier schedule the rest of the way, the numbers in this “ideal health” scenario would project the Wizards to finish with 41 to 42 wins, and a likely ninth place finish.

Washington still has a theoretical chance to finish eighth. Chicago and Charlotte have suffered injuries — Jimmy Butler’s being far more damaging to the Bulls than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s to the Hornets. But, the eighth seed in the East is going to need a minimum of 42 wins, and to do even that well, the Wizards would need to transmogrify from playing like a 37-win team to playing like a 50-win team.

Here’s a simple table showing the task the Wizards have created for themselves. It’s not impossible for them to make the playoffs, but it is highly improbable. The W82 column shows the quality level the Wizards would need to reach the target wins. So, to reach 44 wins this season, they’d need to finish 21-10, which is the approximate level of a 56-win team over an 82-game schedule.

TARGET		NEED		W82
W	L	W	L
44	38	21	10	56
43	39	20	11	53
42	40	19	12	50

Player Production Average

League-wide PPA scores through games played 2/11/16 are here.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	11/10	11/22	12/3	12/13	12/21	12/30	1/6	1/13	1/27	2/11
Marcin Gortat	45	31.2	91	112	128	133	132	138	147	145	148	151
John Wall	51	36.1	153	129	136	168	157	157	149	144	142	146
Otto Porter	44	31.0	144	158	104	116	107	115	122	127	130	130
Bradley Beal	30	31.8	128	108	96	87	87	86	85	86	98	108
Jared Dudley	50	28.9	36	92	90	85	98	103	100	105	99	104
Ramon Sessions	51	20.4	131	119	84	90	87	89	88	91	90	89
Jarell Eddie	14	5.6	–	–	–	–	–	153	119	113	110	86
Nene Hilario	28	18.8	58	90	80	74	79	78	79	88	92	84
Kris Humphries	28	16.6	90	121	95	80	78	76	79	79	78	76
Gary Neal	40	20.2	23	49	64	75	78	74	75	78	71	70
Garrett Temple	49	25.6	38	106	57	54	70	63	68	79	79	69
Drew Gooden	22	12.4	99	51	57	56	56	56	38	47	34	31
Kelly Oubre	43	11.9	-103	-4	-40	-44	9	37	43	39	36	29
DeJuan Blair	29	7.5	-345	-129	-112	-45	-34	-38	-38	-28	-6	-15
Ryan Hollins	5	9.6	–	–	-40	60	59	–	–	–	–	–

Beal has returned from injury playing well. Wall, Gortat and Porter continue to lead the team in production. The numbers indicate the Wizards actually have some decent professional players. What they lack is an elite producer. More on that coming tomorrow.

Wizards Update: All-Star Edition

All-Star rosters will be released tonight, and while Wizards point guard John Wall will likely be selected, he’s borderline at best, and wouldn’t make the team if I was making the picks. I’ve looked at the numbers several different ways — total production, per game production, per minute production — and Wall remains just on the fringes of the All-Star roster.

This is in no small part because of the fan vote, which picked the starters in each conference. In the East, at least according to my analysis, Dwyane Wade, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are undeserving of All-Star status — even as reserves. This pushes all guards down one spot, and all front-court players down two. In my analysis, the next guard up for the East: John Wall. The next front-court guys: Greg Monroe and Al Horford.

In the West, the only poor choice was Kobe Bryant, who received a career achievement honorific. The next deserving front-court player was Blake Griffin, whose injury would have pushed to next man up Dwight Howard.

Here’s the way Player Production Average (my metric, see below) would divvy up the teams:

POS	EAST	WEST
G	Kyle Lowry	Stephen Curry
G	Dwyane Wade	Russell Westbrook
F	Lebron James	Kobe Bryant
F	Paul George	Kevin Durant
F	Carmelo Anthony	Kawhi Leonard
G	Jimmy Butler	Chris Paul
G	Kemba Walker	James Harden
F	Paul Millsap	Draymond Green
F	Hassan Whiteside	Anthony Davis
F	Andre Drummond	DeAndre Jordan
G	Isaiah Thomas	Damian Lillard
F	Chris Bosh	Derrick Favors

My guess is that Wall will probably be chosen over Walker and that Horford will make it over Whiteside. In the West, I’d anticipate Thompson over Lillard and Howard or Demarcus Cousins over Favors.

Those Mediocre Wizards

Talk about the Wizards potentially becoming trade deadline “sellers” inspired me to apply my “Real Trade Value” toy in an all-new way to measure the team’s pervasive mediocrity.

I haven’t written much about Real Trade Value, which is still a work-in-progress. RTV attempts to determine the trade value of each player in relation to the league’s MVP. In RTV, there’s accounting for age (younger players get a bonus; older players get a deduction), and total production and per minute production are given equal weight. So, RTV “likes” players who are young, productive and durable.

There’s no accounting (yet) for contract or position.

In RTV, the top value (this year it’s Stephen Curry) is set at 1,000. Other players are scaled beneath. The idea is similar to the NFL draft pick value sheet. A theoretical trade for Curry would cost 1,000 RTV points. Here are the players closest to each 100-point mark:

1,000 — Stephen Curry
900 — Kawhi Leonard
800 — no one (here’s how outlandish Curry and Leonard have been: Curry’s RTV is 1,000; Leonard’s is 878; next closest is Westbrook at 721)
700 — Russell Westbrook, Andre Drummond, Kevin Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis
600 — Greg Monroe, Hassan Whiteside
500 — Al Horford, Kevin Love, Derrick Favors, Paul George, Clint Capela, Chris Bosh
400 — Zaza Pachulia, Mike Conley, C.J. McCollum, LaMarcus Aldridge, Enes Kanter
300 — Ryan Anderson, Bismack Biyombo, T.J. McConnell, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague
200 — Trevor Booker, Kyle Anderson, Frank Kaminsky, Jeremy Lin, Ramon Sessions
100 — Mike Muscala, Jamal Crawford, E’Twaun Moore, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin
0 — Vince Carter, Sasah Vujacic, Emmanuel Mudiay, Markieff Morris

Got all that? There’ll be a quiz later.

In terms of actual trade value, contracts and position almost certainly need to be included. But, for looking at franchise health — weighing productivity and health vs. age — it works reasonably well.

Here’s a table with the results, sorted by conference.

TEAM	CONF	NBA RANK	CONF RANK	FRANCHISE HEALTH INDEX
BOS	E	5	1	77
ORL	E	6	2	75
ATL	E	7	3	74
TOR	E	8	4	74
CLE	E	10	5	71
MIL	E	12	6	70
IND	E	13	7	69
CHO	E	14	8	69
WAS	E	19	9	65
NYK	E	20	10	65
DET	E	21	11	64
MIA	E	24	12	62
CHI	E	25	13	62
PHI	E	27	14	59
BRK	E	28	15	59
GSW	W	1	1	100
OKC	W	2	2	89
SAS	W	3	3	84
UTA	W	4	4	78
NOP	W	9	5	72
DEN	W	11	6	70
HOU	W	15	7	69
LAC	W	16	8	69
POR	W	17	9	68
MIN	W	18	10	67
SAC	W	22	11	63
PHO	W	23	12	63
DAL	W	26	13	61
MEM	W	29	14	52
LAL	W	30	15	52

The last column is a “franchise health” index where the top team (Golden State) is set at 100 and other teams are scaled below. The Wizards rank 19th overall and 9th in the East. League average “index” score is 69, indicating they rate a little below average.

IF this measure has any predictive value at the team level (and that’s a HUGE “if” because I’ve done precisely zero research on that question), the Wizards have significant work ahead of them to upgrade the roster.

Player Production Average

The ratings below are a from a metric I developed called Player Production Average (PPA). In PPA, players are credited for things they do that help a team win, and debited for things that don’t, each in proportion to what causes teams to win and lose. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes an adjustment based on the level of competition faced when a player is on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

League-wide PPA scores through games played 01/27/16 are here.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	11/10	11/22	12/3	12/13	12/21	12/30	1/6	1/13	1/27
Marcin Gortat	37	31.7	91	112	128	133	132	138	147	145	148
John Wall	43	35.7	153	129	136	168	157	157	149	144	142
Otto Porter	36	32.1	144	158	104	116	107	115	122	127	130
Jarell Eddie	11	6.9	–	–	–	–	–	153	119	113	110
Jared Dudley	42	28.7	36	92	90	85	98	103	100	105	99
Bradley Beal	22	32.9	128	108	96	87	87	86	85	86	98
Nene Hilario	22	18.4	58	90	80	74	79	78	79	88	92
Ramon Sessions	43	21.2	131	119	84	90	87	89	88	91	90
Garrett Temple	41	24.7	38	106	57	54	70	63	68	79	79
Kris Humphries	27	17.1	90	121	95	80	78	76	79	79	78
Gary Neal	35	21.1	23	49	64	75	78	74	75	78	71
Kelly Oubre	36	13.4	-103	-4	-40	-44	9	37	43	39	36
Drew Gooden	14	13.8	99	51	57	56	56	56	38	47	34
DeJuan Blair	26	7.9	-345	-129	-112	-45	-34	-38	-38	-28	-6
Ryan Hollins	5	9.6	–	–	-40	60	59	–	–	–	–

The numbers aren’t too encouraging. Wall has followed up his Player of the Month December with a thoroughly meh January. If the Wizards are going to get back in contention for a spot in the playoffs, they need something closer to the December Wall than they’ve been getting.

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