Category: Wizards

What’s It Worth?

When Jimmy Johnson was running the Dallas Cowboys, he directed a staffer to develop a system that placed values on draft picks. That “draft pick value” sheet became the basis for how the Cowboys evaluated draft-day trade proposals and became the de facto standard for the league.

If such a chart exists for the NBA, I’m not aware of it. So, using Neil Paine’s work at basketball-reference, I created an NBA Draft Value chart setting the top pick to 100 and scaling all other picks below.

Is it “exact”? Of course not. This is based on historical averages — the actual value of a pick is likely to vary year to year depending on who’s in the draft. The number one pick when Lebron was available was a more valuable commodity than the number pick this season.

But, for an approximate value measure to evaluate trades of picks — it could be a useful tool. The idea is that by comparing outgoing and incoming DV points, we can tell how a team is doing with its trade. For example, let’s say the Wizards want to trade for 3rd pick in the draft. That pick has a DV of 74. So, to get that pick, the Wiz would have to come up with 74 DV points (or equivalent NBA veterans) to pry the pick from Utah.

What the chart below suggests is that it would be reasonable for Washington to offer the 6th pick (57 DV) and the 34th pick (16 DV) for the 3rd. The Wiz would be trading 73 DV for a pick worth 74. If the Wiz wanted to offer a “premium” to persuade Utah to move down, the Wiz could offer a future 2nd round pick.

Without further ado, here’s the chart:

Pick DV

1

100

2

83

3

74

4

67

5

62

6

57

7

54

8

51

9

48

10

45

11

43

12

41

13

39

14

37

15

35

16

34

17

33

18

31

19

30

20

29

21

28

22

26

23

25

24

25

25

23

26

23

27

22

28

21

29

20

30

19

31

18

32

18

33

17

34

16

35

15

36

15

37

14

38

14

39

13

40

12

41

12

42

11

43

11

44

10

45

9

46

9

47

8

48

8

49

8

50

7

51

6

52

6

53

6

54

5

55

5

56

4

57

4

58

3

59

3

60

3

I’ll likely be refining this chart a bit in the future, but it seems okay to Ye Olde Eyeball Test.

Let me know your thoughts.

A Look at Blatche’s Shooting

Inspired by Michael Lee’s attempt to explain Andray Blatche’s low shooting percentage this season, my latest at the Washington Post breaks down Blatche’s shooting numbers.

In his recent article about Andray Blatche’s “career-best two-game stretch,” Michael Lee explains Blatche’s poor shooting with this:

“His problems began when he broke a bone in his right foot last June and was unable to do much basketball-related activity. He gained weight, arrived in training camp out of shape, and developed problems with his left knee that affected his burst and his lift. With his shot getting blocked inside, Blatche was forced to take jumpers, resulting in a 43.8 field goal percentage that is his worst since his second season.”Sounds plausible, but is this accurate? Did Blatche shoot more jumpers because his shot was getting blocked inside? Is this what caused Blatche’s sub-par shooting? Let’s test these theories against data extracted from the league’s official play-by-play reports.

Turns out, Lee’s explanation doesn’t hold up. But, there may still be some encouraging signs for Blatche’s future.

Read the rest.

Is Nick Young An Efficient Volume Shooter?

Rook6980 poses the question over at BulletsForever. And, he answers it in the affirmative, pinning the decline in Nick Young’s shooting as the season wore on to a knee injury sustained near the All-Star break.

While Rook’s analysis isn’t bad, he overlooked a more meaningful in-season signpost — the trade of Gilbert Arenas, which led to Young becoming a starter.

Here are some telling numbers about Young’s shooting this season, first using TS% (Rook’s preferred metric).

  • Full season TS% — .538
  • Starter — .532
  • Starter, Pre All-Star break — .538
  • Bench (pre-Arenas trade) — .570

As I’ve noted before, Young’s heavy reliance on long 2pt attempts is worrisome long-term. Much of his decline in overall efficiency is related to the drop in effectiveness shooting that long 2pt shot once he became a starter.

Young’s long 2pt percentages:

  • Bench (pre-Arenas trade) — .574
  • Starter — .412
  • Starter, Pre All-Star break — .414

Shooting percentage on long twos for his first three seasons: .403.

The starter “signpost” is more significant than the All-Star break/injury one because that’s when the decline first began, because it marks a step up in the caliber of competition Young faced, and because it marks the point at which opponents began game-planning Young.

Who Can Say They Got A Triple Double?

My latest at the Washington Post. This one answering Javale McGee’s rhetorical defense of his efforts to get a triple double against the Bulls.

“I got a triple-double,” McGee said. “Who can say they got a triple-double?” So asked JaVale McGee in Mike Lee’s blog post about criticism of McGee’s efforts to get a points-rebounds-blocks triple-double at the end of a desultory loss to the Bulls.

Unlike some, I have no problem with McGee going for the stat in a blowout loss. Just like it didn’t bother me when he tried that in-game free throw line dunk at the end of a blowout loss. When else is he going to get a chance to try it in game action? When the team is up two with 30 seconds to play? I sure hope not.

The problem was not the attempt to get the points, but rather McGee’s embarrassing offensive repertoire and his preening, perspectiveless, immature celebration. Getting a triple-double is something to be proud of, but at the end of yet another brutal loss, it was worth a grin and a high-five, not a swing-on-the-rim tech.

Read the rest.

 

Andray Blatche Injury Symptoms

Mike Lee at the Washington Post reports that Andray Blatche will need more time for his injured shoulder to heal before he returns to action. Blatche’s quote in the story is quintessential Blatche.

From Lee’s story:

Andray Blatche had another MRI on Wednesday in Chicago to see how his sprained right shoulder is progressing. He is still listed as day-to-day but that day could still be some time away since he continues to have limited mobility in the arm. Blatche can lift his arm forward, but he cannot put it above his head from the side.

“It’s not good. I can lift it, but I can’t shoot at all. I can barely bounce a ball,” said Blatche, who has missed the past three games. “They haven’t given me [a timetable] yet. It all depends on how it heals. We haven’t been able to get it to heal.”

This made me laugh. Can’t shoot, can’t dribble. Note that he he didn’t say, “…I can’t rebound…” or “…I can’t hold anyone off in the post…” or “…I can’t set effective screens…”

Can’t shoot, can’t bounce the ball. What else is there in basketball? Not much — at least in Blatche’s mind.

Still Looking Like Tree Rollins

This is not Javale McGee. Just a guy he statistically resembles.

Over the summer, I took a look at some Javale McGee career comps in my WashPost blog.  With ~20 games left in the season, I thought it worth taking a quick look to see who shows up now for McGee.

Search parameters were centers with the following:

  • ortg of at least 109 (McGee is at 110 this season)
  • usage rate of 16 or lower (McGee = 15.4)
  • rebound % 16 or greater (McGee = 16.4)
  • block % 5 or greater (McGee = 6.2)

When I limited the search to just the third season, I came up with one name: Tree Rollins. Again.

Expand to allow any such season from a player 25 or younger, and this is the full list sorted by PER:

  • Tree Rollins
  • Javale McGee
  • Samuel Dalembert
  • Sam Bowie
  • Joel Przybilla
  • Greg Ostertag
  • Hasheem Thabeet

Remove the age restriction, and it brings in the following players and their ages when they reached the statistical criteria mentioned above:

  • Rollins — 24, 26
  • Mutombo — 28, 29, 32, 33, 38, 41
  • Ervin Johnson — 30
  • Brendan Haywood — 30
  • Adonal Foyle — 33
  • Desagna Diop — 26
  • Dalembert — 22, 26
  • Wayne Cooper — 32
  • Camby — 32, 34

Dunno about you, but I’m not exactly overwhelmed by this list.

Career Comps for Andray Blatche

Just did a quick search at Basketball Reference looking for players with a similar career profile to Andray Blatche.

The parameters — 6-10 or taller, through 6 seasons has an offensive rating of 101 or lower (Blatche is at 100); a usage rate of 22 or higher (Blatche: 22.7); at least 2,000 career minutes.

Here’s the list:

  • Ralph Sampson
  • Jermaine O’Neal
  • Herb Williams
  • Andray Blatche
  • Isaac Austin
  • Chris Anstey
  • Alaa Abdelnaby
  • Sharone Wright
  • Predrag Drobnjak
  • Doug Smith
  • Acie Earl
  • William Bedford
  • John Amaechi

The only guy to get excited about is O’Neal, but Jermaine was a good rebounder (Blatche isn’t) and a terrific defender who actually made the All-NBA team in his 6th, 7th and 8th seasons.

Unfortunately, Blatche is a lot more like the other schlubs on the list.

Minute by Minute — A Look At Javale McGee

My latest at the Washington Post.

In cyberspace the past couple days, a season-long conversation about JaVale McGee has flared up. On one side are those who argue that McGee makes the Wizards better (looking at +/- data) and that when he plays more, the team has a better record.

On the other side are those who argue that McGee is capable of dominating individual games because of his overwhelming athleticism, but that he fails to do so regularly for several reasons, including that:

  • he’s unskilled
  • he doesn’t know how to play
  • he continues to suffer from lapses in concentration.

The “McGee is a good player being hampered by bad coaching adherents” point to the team’s 5-2 record when McGee plays 36 minutes or more. Sounds impressive. Especially when you look at McGee’s per minute numbers when he plays that much.

But, this argument is yanked short by Ye Olde “Chicken or Egg?” question. Is McGee playing well (and the team winning) because he’s getting more minutes, or is the team winning and McGee getting more minutes because he’s being productive? And, is this analysis an example of the hazards of arbitrary endpoints?

Read the rest.

Minute by Minute — the McGee Numbers

Click on the chart to make it bigger.

GmSc = Game Score — a summary measure of a player’s single-game statistical contributions. It was created by John Hollinger.  Sort of a PER for individual games.

sortg = Simple offensive rating. Used by Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus, it’s a useful tool (in part because it’s easy to calculate).  The formula is 100 x (pts / (fga + .44 x fta + tov).

Now Do More

Wizards latest acquisition about to dunk on Lebron in a pickup game. Really.

My latest at the Washington Post, this one analyzing the Hinrich to the Hawks deal.  I also suggest that the Wizards should attempt to accomplish three objectives before the trade deadline — trade Blatche (addition by subtraction), get value for Young, and get value for the newly acquired Bibby.

The lede:

Yesterday’s deal sending Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong to Atlanta for Mike Bibby, Jordan Crawford, Maurice Evans and a 2011 first-round pick was a smart trade for the Wizards. Now is no time to rest however — GM Ernie Grunfeld should push to make additional trades before today’s 3 p.m. deadline.

Read the rest.