Gortat Trade Is Culmination of Series of Bad Moves for Wizards

Late Friday afternoon, news emerged that the Washington Wizards had traded injured center Emeka Okafor and a first round pick to the Phoenix Suns for center Marcin Gortat and salary cap ballast. While Gortat is a good player who will help the Wizards more games than they would have with Okafor sidelined, it’s a terrible move for a rebuilding franchise.

Unfortunately for fans who had hoped to see Ted Leonsis and Ernie Grunfeld construct a team that could contend for championships in the near future, it’s merely another example of the team squandering opportunities and mismanaging its assets. In the summer of 2012, for example, the Wizards could have amnestied Andray Blatche and released Rashard Lewis — moves that would have carved out enough cap space to acquire a quality front court player, sign good young players to mid-priced contracts, AND preserved future cap space for possible future free agents.

Instead, they traded for Okafor and Trevor Ariza — both of whom figured to be two-year rentals, at best. While the rebuilding Wizards added a 30-year old Okafor to pair up front with the 31-year old Nene, rebuilding New Orleans used the cap space they’d obtained from the Wizards to acquire Ryan Anderson — a productive 24-year old power forward.

This offseason was even worse. After last season, the team’s biggest need was obvious: front court depth. Okafor and Nene were reasonably effective, but both were 30-plus years old — an age at which NBA players typically see declines in productivity and increases in time missed due to injury.

So, they went into the offseason stocked with these assets:

  • Promising starters in the backcourt (John Wall and Bradley Beal)
  • A solid SF in the final year of his contract (Ariza)
  • The third overall pick in the draft
  • Two second round picks
  • The Bi-Annual Exception (BAE)
  • The Mid-Level Exception (MLE)

They used that draft pick on SF Otto Porter, who should be a good professional player once he’s healthy. In my pre-draft analysis, I had Porter rated in a tie for fourth overall, so picking him third wasn’t much of a stretch. And, the difference between Porter and at least two of the guys I had ahead of him (Cody Zeller and Nerlens Noel) was small enough that reasonable minds could differ on which of the three projected to be the best pro.

They swapped their 2nd round picks to move up a spot and take Glen Rice Jr., which might work out as a decent move. My analysis of his D-League performance suggests Rice may have been worth a mid-first round selection — he could turn out to be a terrific value as a 2nd rounder.

But here’s where things got puzzling. On the first day of free agency, they spent their BAE to sign reserve PG Eric Maynor — a consistently crummy NBA player. Guys who performed like Maynor are ones teams invite to training camp on non-guaranteed minimum salary contracts. The Wizards acted like they were getting a steal.

Weirder yet, they never made an offer to their incumbent backup PG, A.J. Price, who was a) better last season than Maynor has ever been as a pro, and b) would have been happy to get the minimum salary for another year.

Then, with Ariza coming back for another year, having drafted Porter third overall, and having dealt to get Rice (a SG/SF type), Grunfeld gave the full MLE to bring back Webster — yet another SF. Now, Webster did play well last season, and his three-point shooting and heady play was certainly valuable to the team. But, having spent their draft picks on swing men and their BAE on a scrub PG, they still had gaping holes up front, and no way to fill them other than trading or signing minimum salary free agents.

They flirted with San Antonio’s DeJuan Blair, but presented with competing minimum salary offers, Blair chose Dallas. They did manage to sign Al Harrington — one of the more overrated players of the past decade, who was available at a deep discount because he’s 32 years old, coming off the worst season of his career (due to illness), and working his way back into shape after recovering from that illness.

And oh yeah, burning that BAE on Maynor knocked them out of the running for good reserve guards like Nate Robinson and Darren Collison — each of whom signed for the BAE or less.

Taken together, the Wizards spent all of their offseason assets without addressing their single biggest need: depth up front. In effect, they were gambling on the health and productivity of 30-plus year olds, and the insanity of that gamble became evident when Okafor herniated a disk in his neck. With an uncertain timetable for recovery, the Wizards were stuck. The team’s stated goal was to reach the playoffs — something that just wasn’t going to happen if they had to rely on Kevin Seraphin and Jan Vesely, who were two of league’s least productive players last season.

And so, staring into the maw of yet another 30-win season, Grunfeld and Leonsis blinked. They swapped Okafor (who may not play this season) and a first round pick for Gortat, who played at borderline All-NBA caliber a couple years ago. Make no mistake: Gortat is a good player. But here’s the problem — the Wizards spent a future asset on a guy they’re hoping will be on the team for just one year. See, during the summer, Leonsis talked openly about signing a “brand name” free agent. That’s something they’ll need cap room to accomplish, and the only way they’ll have cap space is if they let Gortat depart.

Perhaps the most prevalent counterargument in favor of this trade is that the pick is top 12 protected in 2014 and that good players aren’t usually picked that late in the draft. This is unpersuasive to me because it ignores the reality that in every NBA draft, quality players are selected 13th or lower. Sure, a GM like Grunfeld has a lower probability of finding a good player later in the draft, but that’s a point in favor of keeping picks and acquiring extras, if possible. More picks increase the odds of getting a quality player. Now that’s not even an option.

Another line of argument is that the Wizards could re-sign Gortat, which would make the trade look better for the team. The problem with this thinking is that it would mean the team struck out in free agency (or decided not to even take a swing). Gortat is good, but he’s most certainly not a “brand name” free agent. Plus, Gortat turns 30 next spring, which means he’s more likely to be in the expensive decline portion of his career than he is to remain productive.

It seems like such a classically Wizards transaction. Presented with opportunities to build a potential title contender, the owner and the GM opted to pursue short-term goals that don’t mean much. I find it cynical and disappointing. Makes we wonder why I’m still following this team. But that’s a topic for another day.

Advertisements

8 comments

  1. While I agree that it is a typical EG move and likely wastes another asset, isn’t there a better possible scenario that you didn’t mention? Gortat plays well enough that we want to keep him around. We agree to a contract behind the scenes, but tell him we’ll officially sign him after we spend our cap space on a “brand name” free agent. Therefore, we get a top FA and have a solid C.

    Now does EG have the brains to actually do this? Unlikely

    Like

    1. The league closed that loophole in the cap a couple CBAs ago. The cap hold for Gortat will be about $11.6 million. That’s held against the cap until the Wizards either re-sign him (at which point his actual salary counts against the cap) or they renounce him, which means they’d lose Bird rights and would have to use either cap room or a salary cap exception to re-sign him.

      In short, the Wizards won’t have the ability to both sign a top free agent AND re-sign Gortat. They’re going to have to choose.

      Like

      1. Yea, I read about that last night after I posted my response. That’s too bad. Would’ve been nice.

        While it was typical EG and a short sighted move, at least we should be watching a better team this year than we have in a while. Relying on Nene and Okafor was flawed to begin with. With Okafor out, it could’ve been ugly fast.

        I’ll just turn on my homer googles and hope for the best.

        Like

  2. Kevin,

    I’ve had it with the team. I love them, but the owner has proven himself either incompetent or a snake, depending how cynical you are. The fact that Ernie is still employed proves to me the franchise has no intention of competing on any real level. As you said, it’s short-term move after short-turn move. I’m forcing myself to take a step back this season. If I catch their games, great. If I decide to watch real teams play instead, fine. I just can’t take caring more than the people in charge any more.

    Like

  3. At some point they have to FIRE Grunfeld. 11 years of futility and excuses. We saw Denver and Memphis let go of winning HCs. Fire Grunfeld. How many things do you overlook and explain to keep him in town?

    – paying Arenas with him recovering for a knee injury

    – drafting Jarvis Hayes

    – paying Blatche

    – trading the 5th pick for Miller, Thornton, & Foye

    – Vesely, Sheldon Mack, Chris Singleton, Seraphin,

    Like

    1. I agree it’s long past time for Grunfeld to go. Minor points, but Jarvis Hayes was a Wes Unseld selection. Grunfeld drafted for Milwaukee, selecting TJ Ford with the 7th pick.

      I still think the Arenas contract is defensible. Yes, Arenas was recovering from knee surgery, but it was an injury from which lots of athletes make full recoveries.

      Paying Blatche was baffling. He still had a couple years remaining on his existing contract, and had only about a month where he played well. That was so predictably bad, the Wizards amnestied Blatche BEFORE his extension had even kicked in.

      Trading the 5th pick for Miller and Foye (Thornton came in a different deal) fits right in with Grunfeld not valuing draft picks.

      And here’s the really weird thing about that 2011 draft. The most productive player from the Vesely, Singleton, Mack trio was Mack. The Wizards cut him three times.

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s