Wizards Lack of Depth Continues to Hurt

Get used to repeats of that old Wizards pattern — keeping the score tight (even holding a lead in the fourth quarter) only to lose in the end. The problem isn’t that Washington lacks a mystical “ability to close,” it’s that their bench can’t hold the leads its starters provide, and its starters wear down at the end of competitive games.

This is not the fault of Randy Wittman and the coaching staff. Most of the failing bench players are producing at levels consistent with career norms. Eric Maynor, a fan whipping boy so far this season, is playing worse than usual, but not abnormally so. He’s been unproductive throughout his career — that’s he’s even less productive should surprise no one. The same is true of Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton and Garrett Temple. They’ve established themselves as unproductive. There’s little reason beyond hope to imagine them becoming productive.

With the “make the playoffs or else” mandate, Wittman has little option but to play his key players heavy minutes and pray they don’t get hurt. And that’s exactly what’s happening. John Wall and Bradley Beal lead the league in minutes per game at PG and SG. Among SFs, Trevor Ariza ranks eighth and Martell Webster sits 15th. Marcin Gortat is second in minutes per game among centers. The fragile Nene plays the 12th most minutes per game for a PF.

If this was the playoffs, there’d be little reason for concern. But there are 62 games remaining in the regular season, and they’ve already sustained injuries to Ariza, Webster, Nene and Beal. Another injury could put the playoffs out of reach. That would be a shame (as would limping into the playoffs) because at full strength, it’s core rotation players could at least put a scare in a post-season opponent. They’ll need to get (and stay) healthy to do that, however.

For a further demonstration of Wittman’s lack of options, peruse the table below, which shows the (approximately) weekly update of Player Production Average (PPA). PPA is a player rating stat I developed. It credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	15	36.1	146	172
John Wall	20	37.8	169	168
Marcin Gortat	20	34.6	152	150
Martell Webster	19	32.5	156	148
Nene Hilario	16	32.6	133	134
Trevor Booker	12	16.5	96	114
Bradley Beal	13	40.2	81	81
Jan Vesely	14	18.1	75	54
Chris Singleton	6	17.5	51	29
Eric Maynor	19	10.3	35	16
Al Harrington	7	18.6	6	7
Glen Rice	9	8.0	-10	4
Garrett Temple	18	10.1	-14	-23
Kevin Seraphin	15	7.9	-27	-32
Otto Porter	2	10.5		-70

Ariza is playing a lot like he’s in a contract year, which is to say — superbly. His production is All-Star level, though it would astonish me if he actually received the honor. But, with Lebron more a PF these days, it’s arguable that Ariza has been the East’s second best SF so far this season (behind Paul George).

Recovered from injuries last season, Gortat is producing at a good level again. Like Ariza, his timing is superb — he’s in a contract year as well.

Wall seems to have settled in at All-Star level production. PPA currently has him rated as the top PG in the East, and fifth most productive overall behind Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson and Mike Conley.

This week’s update shows Vesely’s production dropping off. Hopefully he can turn things around. Whether or not he does, the coaching staff would be wise to give more minutes to Booker, who continues to be an “about average” producer. That’s nothing to get excited about, but it makes him a solid reserve.

Finally, note that the Wizards have seven players who rate below replacement level so far this season. Collectively, they’ve played 823 minutes — nearly 17% of the team’s total. This is a direct result of the front office’s persistent failure to properly assess players, and their inability to address the team’s glaring need for depth. This misjudgment is costing the team wins now, and could cost them even more as the season wears on.

Wizards Must Try Not To Let Success Go To Their Heads

Seen on Twitter the past few days is the heady news that the Washington Wizards went .500 in November — tied for the franchise’s third best winning percentage for month in the past 30 years. Forgive me if I don’t join the parade. For a team like the San Antonio Spurs — a good team that competes for championships — the same record would be their ninth worst in the same time span.

A .500 record for a month is not cause for celebration. The Wizards have a good starting group, but an awful bench. The net result: precisely average. The team is improved, but that’s not the same thing as being good. In a weak East where several teams are tanking, even a meh team can make the playoffs.

All that said, let me reiterate — the Wizards are improved. John Wall is the best PG in the East, and currently ranks 7th overall at his position. The team is getting well-above average play from Martell Webster, Trevor Ariza, Marcin Gortat and Nene. The team’s depth makes any success feel tenuous, but they have a core of good players for this season.

One common thread of Wizards discussion I’d like to address before posting the weekly PPA update is this notion that PG Eric Maynor was at some point “good” and that he’s abruptly and inexplicably gotten worse in Washington.

The facts are that Maynor has been a sub-par player throughout his career. That people believed otherwise is testament to attributing to Maynor that which should have been attributed to his teammates. In other words, folks believed Maynor was causing (or contributing) teammates to be better when, in fact, those other players were producing on their own.

The reason I’m addressing this topic is that asserting that Maynor was at some point “good” or “serviceable” is to let the Wizards’ front office off the hook. In reality, signing Maynor was a terrible waste of resources, and evidence that Ernie Grunfeld and his team still haven’t figured out how to evaluate players. They thought they were getting a steal. Instead, they were getting a lemon. And what’s head-bangingly frustrating is that fairly rudimentary look at the numbers would have told them so.

With that out of the way, here’s the weekly Player Production Average update. PPA is a player rating stat I developed. It credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.

PLAYER	GAMES	MPG	LW	PPA
John Wall	17	37.6	158	169
Martell Webster	17	33.6	144	156
Marcin Gortat	17	34.4	139	152
Trevor Ariza	12	35.6	123	146
Nene	14	33.3	127	133
Trevor Booker	9	14.0	102	96
Bradley Beal	13	40.2	82	81
Jan Vesely	11	17.9	81	75
Chris Singleton	3	8.7	—	51
Eric Maynor	16	10.5	50	35
Al Harrington	7	18.6	7	6
Glen Rice Jr.	6	6.3	-5	-10
Garrett Temple	15	11.5	-18	-14
Kevin Seraphin	13	8.5	-39	-27

What jumps out? On the plus side, the team has a good group of starters. Wall appears to be doing what I predicted at the start of the season — making The Leap to becoming a top-shelf PG. Webster, Gortat, Ariza and Nene round out a quality lineup.

On the down side, there’s the rest of the team. Booker has dipped below average for the first time this season on scant playing time. So far this season, the team falls apart on defense when Booker is on the floor.

Vesely appears to be the beneficiary of lowered expectations from fans. He was so inept last season that anything positive gets exaggerated. He is better than last season in that his play hasn’t been a total train wreck. But, he remains well below average.

Some fans (and perhaps the Wizards as well) hoped that Singleton would provide some kind of significant contribution when he returned from a foot injury. Thus far…not so much. Very small sample size, however.

Maynor’s production has slipped below replacement level. Seriously, the Wizards would do better (or at least do no worse) giving his minutes to someone from the D-League. What’s scary: as bad as he’s been, Harrington, Rice, Temple and Seraphin have been worse.

The Wizards will need to either a) get some level of production from The Bench That Grunfeld Built, or b) bolster the bench with a trade or from the D-League. Without radical improvement from its reserves, this team seems perfectly constructed for a first-round playoff ouster — regardless of the opponent.

Inside Wall’s Three-Game Binge

It’s hard to overstate how much fun it’s been watching John Wall erupt these past three games. Wall, whose shooting woes have been well documented, abruptly became a gunner — knocking down an array of shots from everywhere on the floor. The shooting display, paired with skilled passing and overwhelming athleticism left opponents flummoxed, teammates impressed, and fans buzzing with what might be…if he can keep it up.

How abrupt was the change in Wall’s performance level? Regular readers are familiar with my overall rating stat, Player Production Average (PPA). It’s a summary measure I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion, of course. PPA is pace-adjusted, accounts for defense, and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, average = 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

Through the first 11 games this season, Wall’s PPA was a pedestrian 106. His non-scoring numbers were good, but his shooting was terrible. Here are his PPA scores for each of the past three games:

at Toronto — 280
New York — 178
LA Lakers — 293

Over the past three games combined, his PPA was 249. To put this in perspective, last season Lebron James was the league’s most productive player with a PPA of 284. Second place was Chris Paul with a 244. In other words, if Wall maintains this level of play, he’ll be producing like an MVP.

His onslaught this past week earned him the league’s Player of the Week honor, and evoked his sensational March from last season. For that month, Wall had a PPA of 201 — a score that would rank him in the top five players in the league most seasons.

The most important question is whether he can maintain this level of performance, and it’s at this point that enthusiasm should be tempered. A little. Wall’s numbers are up across the board, but the surge in his overall impact is because of his stellar shooting.

Consider his shot selection (data courtesy nbawowy.com):

SPLIT	At-Rim	Mid-Range	Long 2pt	3pt
1st 11 gms	28%	16%	32%	24%
Last 3	32%	16%	42%	11%
March	28%	28%	36%	8%

This table shows where Wall’s field goal attempts have been coming from. He’s been getting to the rim a little more often the past three games than he did early in the season (and last March), but the bulk of his shots are still jumpers. For my taste, he’s still shooting too many low-yield shots from mid-range and long two-point range. Indeed, 58% of his FGA are from what stat goobers not-so-affectionately call “sh*t” shots.

SPLIT	TOTAL FGA	At-RIM FGM	AT-RIM FGA	AT-RIM FG%	MID-RANGE FGM	MID-RANGE FGA	MID-RANGE FG%	LONG 2pt FGM	LONG 2pt FGA	LONG 2pt%	3FGM	3FGA	3pt%
1st 11 gms	170	27	47	0.574	6	28	0.214	16	55	0.291	12	40	0.300
Last 3	57	16	18	0.889	5	9	0.556	11	24	0.458	3	6	0.500
March	275	45	78	0.577	34	76	0.447	44	99	0.444	10	22	0.455

A few things jump out at me. First, his incredible percentage (.889) on at-rim attempts. Wall’s been finishing well at the hoop, and he’s been drawing a ton of fouls. He’s obviously not going to keep shooting near 90% on at-rim attempts, but they’re still his most efficient shot (when he can get it), and his forays to the basket have other excellent results such as drawing fouls (Wall’s a superb free throw shooter) and opening up teammates for shots.

The mid-range shooting percentage isn’t sustainable, but he doesn’t shoot much from there so it doesn’t matter much. His long two-point attempts are a bigger issue because he’s shot from that range frequently throughout his career. His percentage from that range the past week has been acceptable (.458), although it’s still not a very productive shot for him.

Pts Per Shot	At-Rim	Mid-Range	Long 2pt	3pt
1st 11 gms	1.15	0.43	0.58	0.90
Last 3	1.78	1.11	0.92	1.50
March	1.15	0.89	0.89	1.36

Like the rest of the league, Wall is most productive when he gets to the rim or he shoot three-pointers. Obviously it’s not realistic to expect all of his shots to come from those two areas — sometimes he has to take what’s available. But, the principle doesn’t change.

In some ways, the numbers should be downright scary to the rest of the league. Even with 42% of his shots being low-efficiency long twos over the past three games, Wall scored 99 points on just 57 field goal attempts. If opponents start overreacting to Wall’s decent shooting on jumpers, it should pave the way for attacking the hoop. Which will make Wall even more efficient and even more dangerous.

Wizards Reward For Best Week: Brutal Schedule

The Wizards just had their best week of the season, going 3-1 and seeing PG John Wall receive the NBA’s Player of the Week award. Their reward? Four games in five nights with travel between each of the games. Yikes!

The uptick in Wall’s production was as welcome as it was abrupt. His shooting had been atrocious, but became deadly, and he continued doing a first-rate job of finding teammates for open shots at the basket. His play was similar in quality to his transcendent March — when he performed like one of the game’s top five players.

In other good news for the team, Wall wasn’t the only player who improved. Martell Webster enjoyed his return to the starting lineup, and Marcin Gortat and Nene also seemed to settle into their roles. Bradley Beal boosted his production a bit as well, though the youngster still has a ways to go.

The upcoming week will be a challenge for the depth-starved Wizards. They have the makings for a solid top seven, but everything after that remains a major question mark.

Here’s the weekly Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a player rating stat I put together that credits players for things they do that contribute to winning and debits them for things that hurt the cause (each in regression-analyzed proper proportion). PPA includes defense, is pace-adjusted, and incorporates a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the strength of the opposing lineup. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GAMES	MPG	LW	PPA
John Wall	13	37.8	111	158
Martell Webster	13	31.4	110	144
Marcin Gortat	13	33.5	116	139
Nene Hilario	11	32.5	118	127
Trevor Ariza	8	35.1	123	123
Trevor Booker	8	12.6	110	102
Bradley Beal	13	40.2	71	82
Jan Vesely	7	17.3	95	81
Eric Maynor	12	10.4	66	50
Al Harrington	7	18.6	6	7
Glen Rice	5	6.8	-5	-5
Garrett Temple	11	9.2	-36	-18
Kevin Seraphin	10	8.7	-33	-39

As Captain Obvious said, “The bench remains a major weakness.” Jan Vesely’s effectiveness declined as his playing time increased. Trevor Booker’s individual numbers are good, but the defense is a catastrophic failure thus far when he’s on the floor. Al Harrington was awful before he sat with knee trouble. Kevin Seraphin has been even worse than last season — and last season he was the league’s least productive center.

Guard depth is scary as well. Eric Maynor is drawing ire for his crummy play, but what he’s doing is exactly what fans should have expected from him. His PPA this season: 50. His career PPA before this season: 49. His peak PPA for a season was 57. This is his normal level of play. What’s scary: Temple has been worse.

For now, I don’t envy the options head coach Randy Wittman has. The team desperately needs at least two someones from the bench to step up production — one big and one guard. Unfortunately, the roster assembled by Ernie Grunfeld isn’t jammed with “good bets” on a guy or two who might suddenly start playing better.

I’ve been suggesting since offseason that the team’s best option for depth may be to use SF Trevor Ariza at PF (as a stretch four), especially if injured rookie Otto Porter can give them productive minutes at SF. Ariza is likely to be more productive as an S4 than Harrington has been, and he may provide the opposition with challenging match-ups at that spot.

No matter how I look at the various lineup permutations, the team’s rotation is skimpy — at best. With reasonable health for its rotation, the Wizards should be a playoff team. Lose anyone from the top seven or eight, and the playoffs are dicier, even in the East. And, I don’t think can sustain an extended absence from Wall, Nene or Gortat, however.

The Wizards With Jan Vesely

Like many fans, I’ve been encouraged by watching the performance of Jan Vesely since he’s entered the team’s rotation. He’s long and agile, and it’s felt like his offensive game hasn’t hurt much because only one of his 14 shot attempts this season has come from outside of eight feet.

But, the scoreboard is actually telling a different story — at least so far. In the four games where Vesely has had significant playing time, the Wizards have been outscored in each during his minutes on the floor (the team was +3 in his one minute against Dallas). For the season, Vesely is averaging 17.4 minutes per game, and during those minutes the Wizards have been outscored by 42 points. That’s 23.2 points per 48 minutes.

OPP	MIN	+/-
@CLE	22	-19
MIN	19	-2
CLE	23	-3
@SAS	22	-21
DAL	1	3

When he’s been on the floor, they’ve had an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of 79. For the full season, the Wizards’ ortg is 102.6. When he’s been on the floor, their defensive rating is 103.1. For the season, the Wizards are at 105.3.

When Vesely has been in the game, the Wizards basically held their own in two of the games (against Minnesota and the first Cleveland matchup), and they’ve been stomped twice. The San Antonio game we can maybe dismiss because it’s the Spurs, and because the game was played in San Antonio, and because it was Vesely’s first game back in the rotation. And there’s no way I’d take any plus/minus stat as definitive after just five games and 87 total minutes.

But, this is something that bears monitoring. Given Vesely’s profoundly limited offensive repertoire, his contributions must be of the rebounding, defense, intangibles variety. If these contributions result in the team getting stomped while he’s in the game, there’s no value to them and the Wizards must find another solution to their frontcourt depth woes.

Hopefully, the scarily bad on/off numbers are the result of a couple small sample flukes. It would be much better for the Wizards (and for Vesely’s hopes of remaining in the NBA beyond this season) if he can be the backup PF/C they desperately need.

The Wizards Under Grunfeld: Month by Month

This is Ernie Grunfeld’s 11th season running the Washington Wizards. During those years, the team has compiled the league’s third worst winning percentage. Wizards fans have long joked about the team’s penchant for getting off to bad starts before winning a string of meaningless games in April. That trend is so entrenched that we dubbed the quintessential Wizard, Andray Blatche, April Fool’s Dray.

But, as with so many things NBA, a comment on the RealGM message board got me wondering… Do the Wizards actually play better late in the season? If so, how much better? So, I looked up the team’s record month by month under Grunfeld’s leadership.

MONTH	W	L	W%	W82
Oct/Nov	47	93	0.336	27.5
December	50	85	0.370	30.4
January	71	88	0.447	36.6
February	46	76	0.377	30.9
March	60	101	0.373	30.6
April	41	55	0.427	35.0

Overall	315	498	0.387	31.8

So, the team’s best month under Grunfeld is January — a time when the Wizards look almost like a playoff team. They’re pretty close in April too, though resembling a 35-win team is even a little less playoff-like.

Here’s what jumps out at me, though: Just how low are the standards of Wizards fans? The April hey, the young guys are playing well and the Wizards are winning some games thing has become an annual ritual. Call it The Coronation of the Scrubs. But even in that “good” month, the Wizards have been a failure. Even if they played a full season at the lofty level of April or January, they’d still be a lottery team.

As Thom Loverro might tweet, a Monumental record.

Wizards Consistent In Futility

In an era characterized by rapid change, it’s good to be able to count on things. When it comes to losing, when it comes to ineptitude, when it comes to futility — Wizards fans have been able to count on the team and its management. Since Ernie Grunfeld took control of the team’s direction in 2003-04, the Wizards have the league’s third worst winning percentage. This season — Grunfeld’s 11th with the team — they’re tied for the league’s fourth worst winning percentage through nine games. Maybe owner Ted Leonsis deems that progress.

How typical is the bad start? Over the past 11 seasons, the Wizards’ record in their first nine games is 30-69. The average start by Washington teams built by Grunfeld 2.7-6.3. That’s a .303 winning percentage. Which is bad. As in, about a 25-win team over the course of an 82-game season.

It’s still early in the season, and I expect the team to improve and make a run at the playoffs, but as the numbers below demonstrate — the team is being hurt by lack of depth and by lack of production from the players who are supposed to be its stars. I’ll get to the “stars” in a moment, but the team’s lack of quality players on its bench was both foreseeable and fixable during the offseason.

Re-litigating the bungled offseason isn’t useful at this point except as a reminder — the roster is the product of front office decisions. Eric Maynor and Al Harrington (the team’s free agent acquisitions) are Wizards instead of DeJuan Blair. The team holds the rights to Tomas Satoransky instead of the production of Jae Crowder, Kyle O’Quinn or Orlando Johnson. They have Glen Rice rather than Nate Wolters.

And this isn’t even going back to 2011, which included gems like picking Jan Vesely AND Chris Singleton ahead of Kenneth Faried.

Trying to look at the bright side, the numbers suggest that the team is getting a bit better than average production from its starters. Bradley Beal is the lone exception — he’s had some good games sprinkled into some real clunkers (about what should be expected from a youngster in his second season).

The problem? The production from John Wall, Nene and Marcin Gortat is perilously close to average. The Wizards need significant production from all three, especially Wall, if they’re going to be a decent team this year. Last March, Wall played like a potential MVP candidate. So far this season, he’s playing like a run-of-the-mill starter.

So, to the first Player Production Average (PPA) update of the season. PPA is a player rating stat I put together that credits players for things they do that contribute to winning and debits them for things that hurt the cause (each in regression-analyzed proper proportion). PPA includes defense, is pace-adjusted, and incorporates a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the strength of the opposing lineup. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	PPA
Trevor Ariza	8	35.1	123
Nene Hilario	7	30.6	118
Marcin Gortat	9	33.8	116
John Wall	9	36.9	111
Trevor Booker	5	16.4	110
Martell Webster	9	27.6	110
Jan Vesely	3	15.3	95
Bradley Beal	9	40.1	71
Eric Maynor	8	11.9	66
Al Harrington	7	18.6	6
Glen Rice	3	10.0	-5
Kevin Seraphin	9	8.8	-33
Garrett Temple	7	4.7	-36

Back to bright side stuff for a moment — Trevor Ariza, Jan Vesely and Eric Maynor are each out-performing their pre-season projections and their level of play last season.

It’s tempting to brand Ariza’s play as the standard contract-year surge, except that it’s largely in line with his career norms except for a slight uptick in field goal attempts.

In scant playing time, Vesely has done just about everything the team could hope he’d provide. His offense is abysmal, but he does contribute offensive rebounds, which help. He’s also helping on the defensive glass. I anticipate his PPA to decline as he gets more playing time.

Maynor’s PPA is deceptively high. He had an outstanding 14 minutes against Miami — about 15% of his total minutes to date. The rest of his minutes have been bad. Keep in mind that back in September, Grunfeld had this to say about Maynor (h/t to Matt Kremnitzer’s superior Google search skills for the link):

We wanted to upgrade our backup point guard position and Eric [Maynor] has been with us now, three weeks in a row. He’s very solid, very steady. He brings a little poise to the game. He knows how to play. So we feel we’ve upgraded that position.

Basically, that the PPA table is saying is that when the Wizards top players are on the floor, they’re slightly better than average — something borne out by the on/off data. But there’s a big drop-off when they go to the bench. Big drop-offs to the bench aren’t atypical — lots of teams see major production drops when they use reserves. There are often very good reasons why guys are reserves. But, good teams have their starters outplay the opposing starters.

The Wizards starters hold their own, but the team falls apart when they use the bench. That’s not a recipe to reach the playoffs. It’s the recipe for 2-7. It’s the right mix for consistent futility.

And here’s a truly terrifying question for Wizards fans: How bad would this team be if they weren’t in “win now” mode?

Wizards Off To Even Worse Start Than Last Season

If you thought last season’s horrific start by the Washington Wizards couldn’t be duplicated, think again. Through their first three games of the years, the Wizards have been even worse than they were last year.

Season	Ortg	Drtg	Diff	PytW82
2013-14	102.7	112.4	-9.7	18.1
2012-13	92.3	99.0	-6.7	22.5

Change	-10.4	13.4	-3.0	-4.4

Ortg = points scored per 100 possessions

Drtg = points allowed per 100 possessions

Diff = ortg – drtg (scoring/efficiency differential is a better measure of team strength than a team’s record)

PytW82 = “Diff” translated into projected wins if that differential was maintained over an 82-game schedule

As you can see from the table above, the Wizards have been 10.4 points per 100 possessions better offensively this season than last, BUT they’ve been 13.0 points per 100 possessions worse on defense. The net result: through three games, they’re -3.0 in efficiency differential — a change of 4.4 wins over the course of a full season.

Last season, the team was missing PG John Wall. This year, they’re missing both Nene and Emeka Okafor — two of the team’s more important defenders last season. Marcin Gortat, an adequate defender at best, has been slow to grasp the team’s defensive scheme.

Unfortunately, there probably aren’t any quick fixes to the defense. The team emphasized that end of the court during training camp, but it’s challenging to overcome the loss of quality defensive big men — they’re the linchpin of every good defense in the NBA.

Which, of course, leads to the obvious question: Why did the Wizards go through an offseason without addressing the critical need for depth behind its 30+ year old front line?

Which, of course, leads to another obvious question: Why does Ted Leonsis continue to let Ernie Grunfeld run his basketball team?

Projection: Wizards Will Win 43 and Make Playoffs This Season

Will John Wall make The Leap to All-Star status this season?

NBA preseason doesn’t mean an awful lot. It’s perhaps a bit more important for a team like the Wizards — a bad team trying to get into the playoffs for the first time in awhile. But even then the information it provides isn’t all that…informative.

The regular season Wizards will get a significant boost from the preseason Wizards because of their move last Friday to acquire center Marcin Gortat. The veteran takes the spot vacated by the injured Emeka Okafor, who was sent to Phoenix (along with a first round pick).

I’ll get to my projection/prediction for the season in a moment, but first, a look at the preseason numbers. I’m not wasting time with the team-level stuff. The Wizards were terrible on offense and excellent on defense during the exhibition games. That’s theoretically a way to win games — a 68-65 win counts as much in the standings as one that’s 114-111. Still, being good on both ends would be preferable. If there’s any takeaway from the team-level preseason numbers it’s that the team was similar to the one they had last year (not surprising considering their few personnel changes), which was characterized by terrible offense and excellent defense.

Looking at the individuals, I’d conclude that most of the roster underwhelmed. Bradley Beal and Trevor Booker played well; Nene was okay, but not performing at the level he’s maintained throughout his career; and the rest…pretty bad. John Wall, the guy they’re building around, was awful. He shot badly from everywhere (.415 from two-point range; .118 from three-point range; just .727 from the free throw line), and committing 4.4 turnovers per 36 minutes.

Below is a table showing an “estimated” Player Production Average (PPA) for each player. I say “estimated” because PPA is based on league average season by season. That average is fairly consistent year to year, but there are fluctuations. Since it’s preseason, there isn’t enough data to calculate a true league “average” so I use an approximation of league average. Also, full PPA adjusts for pace, accounts for individual defense and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor — none of which I’m including in looking at the preseason numbers. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

Player	G	MPG	ePPA	PPA
Bradley Beal	7	30.3	146	92
Trevor Booker	6	20.5	144	96
Nene	5	22.2	118	119
Glen Rice	6	14.0	70
Jan Vesely	7	20.3	67	19
Trevor Ariza	7	23.4	52	108
Martell Webster	6	23.5	49	114
Al Harrington	5	16.6	43	81
Eric Maynor	6	21.0	38	32
Kevin Seraphin	7	25.9	27	22
Garrett Temple	5	15.6	25	60
John Wall	7	28.1	12	139

That last column is the player’s PPA in 2012-13. Except for Al Harrington, who missed most of last season with a staph infection.

Again, don’t read too much into the preseason numbers. The play of Beal and Booker are hopeful signs. Also good to see Jan Vesely doing something positive on the floor — he actually led the team in rebounding in preseason.

I’m not overly worried about Wall’s poor play, although it would have been nice to see him pick up where he left off at the end of last season.

If you’re thinking you’ll see better play from Eric Maynor once the season begins, stop it. At best the Wizards are likely get replacement level production from him.

Other potential cautions: Martell Webster and Kevin Seraphin were bad. Webster’s play is potentially worrisome because he hasn’t established himself to the point where his production level is a given. Last year, he had a terrific preseason, and it translated into a solid regular season. This year? Hard to say.

Seraphin’s preseason performance, is unfortunately matches up with most of the data on him. He was inefficient, turnover prone and rebounded like a SF.

Ariza’s preseason stats don’t mean a whole lot. He’s well-established and fairly consistent. He’ll provide the team with another season of stellar defense and meh offense, which will grade out to about average.

2013-14 Projection

Given the team’s offseason moves, it was clear that the team’s fortunes this season rested on the health of three players: Wall, Nene and Okafor. Now that they’ve traded for Gortat, their fortunes rest on the health of three players: Wall, Nene and Gortat. They don’t have quality depth behind any of these three.

While my projection relies on statistical data, there’s a fair amount of guesswork in divvying up minutes. The table below shows my estimates of games played, minutes played, and PPA. The estimates for games and minutes are a combination of player history, analysis of similar players in the NBA record, and logic. PPA estimates incorporate each player’s individual performance history, analysis of historical similars, and aging effects.

POS	Player	G	MPG	LS	2013-14
PG	John Wall	66	35.8	139	160
PG	Eric Maynor	75	13.0	32	34
G	Garrett Temple	60	10.9	60	45
SG	Glen Rice	42	11.4		75
SG	Bradley Beal	68	34.0	92	108
SF	Otto Porter	41	20.0		75
SF	Trevor Ariza	61	29.6	108	105
SF	Martell Webster	60	24.6	114	97
PF	Nene	62	29.1	119	146
PF	Chris Singleton	34	10.0	24	43
PF	Jan Veseley	60	10.0	19	51
PF	Al Harrington	66	18.0	81	78
PF	Trevor Booker	58	19.7	96	106
C	Marcin Gortat	74	29.0	125	146
C	Kevin Seraphin	69	18.2	22	46

LS = last season, except for Harrington.

My approach projects Wall making The Leap to All-Star level production, whether he makes the team or not. It also projects significant improvement from Beal, although it suggests he’s another year from making The Leap himself. I’m also expecting bounce-back years in per minute production from Nene and Gortat.

I’m expecting regression from Webster both in terms of overall production and in health.

I crunched the numbers on several different scenarios. In a best-case situation that assumes near perfect health, the Wizards could win 48 games. My worst case projection has them at 34 wins.

Final prediction: 43-39, and the Wizards get the 7th seed in the playoffs.

For those who are curious, here’s how the projections looked with the various possibilities between Okafor, Gortat and neither.

Current roster (with Gortat): 43-39
With healthy Okafor: 42-40
Without Gortat or Okafor (no trade): 38-44

That First Round Pick Won’t Be Worth Much Anyway

One of those low value picks outside the top 10.

One of the refrains of the Okafor and a first round pick for Gortat trades is that the pick really won’t be worth all that much anyway because it doesn’t convey to the Suns unless it falls outside the top 10. I spent a few minutes tweeting a list of productive players selected outside the top 10 over the past few years.

Out of curiosity, I decided to see what kind of team I could construct using only players currently in the league who were drafted outside the top 10. The biggest problem: too many good players.

Point Guards

Tony Parker
Rajon Rondo
Ty Lawson
Jameer Nelson
Mo Williams
Jarrett Jack
Kyle Lowry
George Hill
Lou Williams
Nate Robinson
Isaiah Thomas

Gilbert Arenas got picked in the second round too, but I’m trying to assemble a “current” team. I’ll take three PGs — Parker, Rondo and Lawson.

Shooting Guard

Manu Ginobili
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Martin
Kyle Korver
Thabo Sefalosha
Jimmy Butler
Gordon Hayward
Tony Allen

I’ll take two — Ginobili and Kobe. Hmm, might be to old. Could replace either with Butler to have a developmental guy. Still, I’ll stick with the old guys.

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard
Andrei Kirilenko
Danny Green
Danny Granger
Chandler Parsons
Nicolas Batum
Jared Dudley
Trevor Ariza
Dorell Wright
DeMarre Carroll
Matt Barnes
Metta World Peace
Tayshaun Prince

These are just the guys I considered in an off-the-top-of-my-head kinda way. Lots of options, but I’ll pick two: Leonard and Green. Yeah, they’re both Spurs, but they both do the kinds of things that help teams win. Hmm, I wonder if there’s some coincidence between them being productive and the Spurs winning.

Power Forward

Thaddeus Young
Carl Landry
Ryan Anderson
Serge Ibaka
Kenneth Faried
David West
Paul Millsap
Ersan Ilyasova
Carlos Boozer
DeJuan Blair
Luis Scola
Nick Collison

Almost an embarrassment of riches. I’ll take three: Anderson, Faried and Ibaka. Yep, good arguments could be made for Young, West, Millsap and Ilysova, but I like the combination of high production and differing styles these three offer.

Center

Anderson Varejao
J.J. Hickson
Nikola Pekovic
Marc Gasol
Larry Sanders
Kosta Koufos
Al Jefferson
Robin Lopez
DeAndre Jordan
Nikola Vucevic
Marcin Gortat
Omer Asik
Javale McGee

Hmm…Gasol is an obvious pick. There’s room for one more center on the roster. Pekovic? Vucevic? Jordan? Gortat? Sanders? Asik? Geez, any of these guys would be pretty solid in the middle. I’ll take Pekovic as Gasol’s backup.

So, here’s the 12-man roster of players drafted outside the top 10:

Starters

PG — Tony Parker
SG — Kobe Bryant
SF — Kawhi Leonard
PF — Serge Ibaka
C — Marc Gasol

Reserves

PG — Rajon Rondo
PG — Ty Lawson
SG — Manu Ginobili
SF — Danny Green
PF — Ryan Anderson
PF — Kenneth Faried
C — Nikola Vucevic

Kinda interesting to see the number of Spurs on these lists, no?

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