Tag: PPA

Washington Wizards: Total Mediocrity

beal shoots

Ask a Wizards fan to describe the team, and odds are he’d say the starters are pretty good, but the bench is awful. And he’d probably take a shot at Randy Wittman’s coaching — something Wittman would deserve for no other reason than the passion he’s instilling for two-point jump shots (aka The Worst Shots in the Game; or The Shots the Defense Wants You to Take).

However, an analysis of starting lineups and benches around the league suggests that these assumptions may not be accurate. The analysis used my overall player rating metric, called Player Production Average (PPA), weighted by minutes played. I ran an overall minutes-weighted PPA for each team’s most commonly used starting five, and then for each team’s bench.

PPA credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.

The league’s average starting lineup produced a PPA of 129. Washington’s starters ranks 14th overall with a 127. The average bench produced a PPA of 67. Washington’s bench ranks 15th with a 69.

I’m as surprised as you are.

I suspect that a big reason the Wizards bench rates in the middle is because of Wittman’s short seven-and-a-half man rotation. Most nights, Wittman uses what amounts to a two-man bench of Martell Webster and either Nenê or Booker (whichever didn’t start). Nenê was counted as a starter, by the way. Garrett Temple plays only long enough for John Wall to catch his breath. The rest of the squad gets spot minutes when they can.

What does this show? This is a thoroughly mediocre team — starters AND bench.

Here’s a table showing minutes-weighted PPA scores for the starters and bench of each NBA team, sorted by Starter PPA:

TEAM STARTER PPA BENCH PPA Starter Rank Bench Rank
MIA 173 74 1 11
LAC 166 70 2 14
SAS 165 101 3 1
MIN 158 51 4 26
OKC 156 76 5 8
POR 156 52 6 25
GSW 153 40 7 30
ATL 148 76 8 9
IND 145 56 9 23
HOU 145 67 10 17
DAL 140 83 11 5
NOP 132 77 12 7
DEN 128 72 13 12
WAS 127 69 14 15
CLE 126 42 15 29
PHO 126 85 16 3
TOR 121 65 17 19
DET 120 51 18 27
NYK 119 71 19 13
SAC 118 63 20 20
MEM 118 85 21 4
CHI 116 75 22 10
CHA 116 55 23 24
LAL 114 69 24 16
UTA 109 58 25 22
PHI 107 43 26 28
ORL 106 59 27 21
BRK 100 88 28 2
BOS 93 67 29 18
MIL 70 79 30 6
         
AVG. 129 67    

A few observations:

  • Only Boston and Milwaukee have starting lineups that rate below the league average PPA (100). Incredibly, the Bucks bench rates as slightly more productive than the starters.
  • San Antonio has the league’s third best starting lineup AND the most productive bench.
  • Oklahoma City has the fifth best starting lineup, which is downright incredible because it includes 876 minutes of Kendrick Perkins (PPA: 24).
  • Minnesota is continuing its decades-long practice of not putting an adequate roster around a high-quality PF named Kevin. In years past, the “Kevin” was Garnett. The past few years, it’s been Love. The Timberwolves roll with the 4th best starters and the 5th worst bench.
  • Brooklyn is kind of a reverse image of Minnesota. The Nets’ starting lineup has been bad (minutes-weighted PPA of 100 — good for third worst), but they have the league’s 2nd most productive bench.

Moving on to the Wizards’ PPA update…no real surprises.

PLAYER GMS MPG LW PPA
Trevor Ariza 38 34.8 144 151
John Wall 43 37.0 147 143
Trevor Booker 34 21.2 137 136
Marcin Gortat 43 32.6 135 136
Nenê Hilario 36 29.6 102 104
Martell Webster 41 30.4 105 100
Bradley Beal 34 32.9 84 89
Jan Vesely 28 16.0 72 72
Chris Singleton 14 10.6 60 60
Glen Rice 11 9.9 18 21
Kevin Seraphin 31 9.9 20 17
Eric Maynor 22 9.5 13 13
Al Harrington 7 18.6 7 6
Otto Porter 21 9.8 3 4
Garrett Temple 41 11.5 6 3

Trevor Ariza had a good week while the rest of the team performed “about the same.” Webster’s production slipped for a fourth consecutive update — he’s now right at league average. If Washington is to break out of this rut of mediocrity, they need someone to significantly boost his production. The prime candidate would seem to be Bradley Beal, who had a terrific second half last season.

Wizards Lack of Depth Continues to Hurt

Get used to repeats of that old Wizards pattern — keeping the score tight (even holding a lead in the fourth quarter) only to lose in the end. The problem isn’t that Washington lacks a mystical “ability to close,” it’s that their bench can’t hold the leads its starters provide, and its starters wear down at the end of competitive games.

This is not the fault of Randy Wittman and the coaching staff. Most of the failing bench players are producing at levels consistent with career norms. Eric Maynor, a fan whipping boy so far this season, is playing worse than usual, but not abnormally so. He’s been unproductive throughout his career — that’s he’s even less productive should surprise no one. The same is true of Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton and Garrett Temple. They’ve established themselves as unproductive. There’s little reason beyond hope to imagine them becoming productive.

With the “make the playoffs or else” mandate, Wittman has little option but to play his key players heavy minutes and pray they don’t get hurt. And that’s exactly what’s happening. John Wall and Bradley Beal lead the league in minutes per game at PG and SG. Among SFs, Trevor Ariza ranks eighth and Martell Webster sits 15th. Marcin Gortat is second in minutes per game among centers. The fragile Nene plays the 12th most minutes per game for a PF.

If this was the playoffs, there’d be little reason for concern. But there are 62 games remaining in the regular season, and they’ve already sustained injuries to Ariza, Webster, Nene and Beal. Another injury could put the playoffs out of reach. That would be a shame (as would limping into the playoffs) because at full strength, it’s core rotation players could at least put a scare in a post-season opponent. They’ll need to get (and stay) healthy to do that, however.

For a further demonstration of Wittman’s lack of options, peruse the table below, which shows the (approximately) weekly update of Player Production Average (PPA). PPA is a player rating stat I developed. It credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.

PLAYER GMS MPG LW PPA
Trevor Ariza 15 36.1 146 172
John Wall 20 37.8 169 168
Marcin Gortat 20 34.6 152 150
Martell Webster 19 32.5 156 148
Nene Hilario 16 32.6 133 134
Trevor Booker 12 16.5 96 114
Bradley Beal 13 40.2 81 81
Jan Vesely 14 18.1 75 54
Chris Singleton 6 17.5 51 29
Eric Maynor 19 10.3 35 16
Al Harrington 7 18.6 6 7
Glen Rice 9 8.0 -10 4
Garrett Temple 18 10.1 -14 -23
Kevin Seraphin 15 7.9 -27 -32
Otto Porter 2 10.5 -70

Ariza is playing a lot like he’s in a contract year, which is to say — superbly. His production is All-Star level, though it would astonish me if he actually received the honor. But, with Lebron more a PF these days, it’s arguable that Ariza has been the East’s second best SF so far this season (behind Paul George).

Recovered from injuries last season, Gortat is producing at a good level again. Like Ariza, his timing is superb — he’s in a contract year as well.

Wall seems to have settled in at All-Star level production. PPA currently has him rated as the top PG in the East, and fifth most productive overall behind Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson and Mike Conley.

This week’s update shows Vesely’s production dropping off. Hopefully he can turn things around. Whether or not he does, the coaching staff would be wise to give more minutes to Booker, who continues to be an “about average” producer. That’s nothing to get excited about, but it makes him a solid reserve.

Finally, note that the Wizards have seven players who rate below replacement level so far this season. Collectively, they’ve played 823 minutes — nearly 17% of the team’s total. This is a direct result of the front office’s persistent failure to properly assess players, and their inability to address the team’s glaring need for depth. This misjudgment is costing the team wins now, and could cost them even more as the season wears on.

Inside Wall’s Three-Game Binge

It’s hard to overstate how much fun it’s been watching John Wall erupt these past three games. Wall, whose shooting woes have been well documented, abruptly became a gunner — knocking down an array of shots from everywhere on the floor. The shooting display, paired with skilled passing and overwhelming athleticism left opponents flummoxed, teammates impressed, and fans buzzing with what might be…if he can keep it up.

How abrupt was the change in Wall’s performance level? Regular readers are familiar with my overall rating stat, Player Production Average (PPA). It’s a summary measure I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion, of course. PPA is pace-adjusted, accounts for defense, and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, average = 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

Through the first 11 games this season, Wall’s PPA was a pedestrian 106. His non-scoring numbers were good, but his shooting was terrible. Here are his PPA scores for each of the past three games:

  • at Toronto — 280
  • New York — 178
  • LA Lakers — 293

Over the past three games combined, his PPA was 249. To put this in perspective, last season Lebron James was the league’s most productive player with a PPA of 284. Second place was Chris Paul with a 244. In other words, if Wall maintains this level of play, he’ll be producing like an MVP.

His onslaught this past week earned him the league’s Player of the Week honor, and evoked his sensational March from last season. For that month, Wall had a PPA of 201 — a score that would rank him in the top five players in the league most seasons.

The most important question is whether he can maintain this level of performance, and it’s at this point that enthusiasm should be tempered. A little. Wall’s numbers are up across the board, but the surge in his overall impact is because of his stellar shooting.

Consider his shot selection (data courtesy nbawowy.com):

SPLIT At-Rim Mid-Range Long 2pt 3pt
1st 11 gms 28% 16% 32% 24%
Last 3 32% 16% 42% 11%
March 28% 28% 36% 8%

This table shows where Wall’s field goal attempts have been coming from. He’s been getting to the rim a little more often the past three games than he did early in the season (and last March), but the bulk of his shots are still jumpers. For my taste, he’s still shooting too many low-yield shots from mid-range and long two-point range. Indeed, 58% of his FGA are from what stat goobers not-so-affectionately call “sh*t” shots.

SPLIT TOTAL FGA At-RIM FGM AT-RIM FGA AT-RIM FG% MID-RANGE FGM MID-RANGE FGA MID-RANGE FG% LONG 2pt FGM LONG 2pt FGA LONG 2pt% 3FGM 3FGA 3pt%
1st 11 gms 170 27 47 0.574 6 28 0.214 16 55 0.291 12 40 0.300
Last 3 57 16 18 0.889 5 9 0.556 11 24 0.458 3 6 0.500
March 275 45 78 0.577 34 76 0.447 44 99 0.444 10 22 0.455

A few things jump out at me. First, his incredible percentage (.889) on at-rim attempts. Wall’s been finishing well at the hoop, and he’s been drawing a ton of fouls. He’s obviously not going to keep shooting near 90% on at-rim attempts, but they’re still his most efficient shot (when he can get it), and his forays to the basket have other excellent results such as drawing fouls (Wall’s a superb free throw shooter) and opening up teammates for shots.

The mid-range shooting percentage isn’t sustainable, but he doesn’t shoot much from there so it doesn’t matter much. His long two-point attempts are a bigger issue because he’s shot from that range frequently throughout his career. His percentage from that range the past week has been acceptable (.458), although it’s still not a very productive shot for him.

Pts Per Shot At-Rim Mid-Range Long 2pt 3pt
1st 11 gms 1.15 0.43 0.58 0.90
Last 3 1.78 1.11 0.92 1.50
March 1.15 0.89 0.89 1.36

Like the rest of the league, Wall is most productive when he gets to the rim or he shoot three-pointers. Obviously it’s not realistic to expect all of his shots to come from those two areas — sometimes he has to take what’s available. But, the principle doesn’t change.

In some ways, the numbers should be downright scary to the rest of the league. Even with 42% of his shots being low-efficiency long twos over the past three games, Wall scored 99 points on just 57 field goal attempts. If opponents start overreacting to Wall’s decent shooting on jumpers, it should pave the way for attacking the hoop. Which will make Wall even more efficient and even more dangerous.