Wizards Renovated Offense Needs Time

The Washington Wizards have embarked on a major renovation of their offense, and while the results are decidedly mixed through their first six games, the right thing is to stay the course and see if players can grow into new roles.

Last season, the Wizards were 18th in pace and 28th in three-point attempt rate (the percentage of field goal attempts from three-point range). So far in 2015-16, they’re second in pace (a whopping 8.4 possessions per 48 minutes faster) and 12th in three-point attempt rate.

The positives so far: decent shooting and an uptick in trips to the free throw line. The negatives: the league’s worst turnover rate, a drop-off in rebounding effectiveness, and an elevated opponent shooting percentage.

While patience is warranted as the team figures out how to operate in the new system, the emphasis on playing at a fast pace continues to be a concern for me. Why? Because pace of play has nothing to do with what causes teams to win games. Go through the record of games and seasons, and you’ll find good (and bad) teams that played fast, slow and in-between. What makes sense is for a team to play at a pace where it’s comfortable, where the players are under control, and where it can get good shots and maximize efficiency. If that’s fast, then play fast. If it’s slower, then slow down.

At the risk of oversimplifying, basketball is a game where teams take turns with the ball until the clock runs out. The number of possessions are about the same for each team over the course of a game — sometimes there’s a possession or two variance based on end-of-period exchanges. Playing fast doesn’t get a team extra possessions because no matter how quick they shoot the ball, the other team gets it back. What matters is efficiency — generating more points on your possessions than the other guy does on his.

The emphasis on playing fast — at least as it’s been implemented by the Wizards so far — seems misguided to me. Pushing the ball up the floor every possession is a good strategy because it can stress the defense, catch defenders out of position, and give Washington more time to run its half court offense. But if rushing leads to more turnovers, and weakened defensive rebounding, the strategy is missing the point.

What really concerns me about the “play fast” mantra is the question of whether the Wizards truly have a grasp on what’s important for a team to win. There’s a palpable feeling that they’re mimicking Golden State without a true understanding of why that style of play works for the Warriors, and how it fits Washington’s personnel. What wins games in the NBA? Doing these things better than the opponent (in order of importance): shooting from the floor, controlling turnovers, getting to the free throw line, and rebounding. Pace ain’t on the list.

Player Production Average

The ratings below are a metric I developed called Player Production Average (PPA). In PPA, players are credited for things they do that help a team win, and debited for things that don’t, each in proportion to what causes teams to win and lose. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes an adjustment based on the level of competition faced when a player is on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GAMES	MPG	PPA
John Wall	6	34.8	153
Otto Porter	6	34.0	144
Ramon Sessions	6	17.2	131
Bradley Beal	6	34.7	128
Drew Gooden	4	15.0	99
Marcin Gortat	6	28.0	91
Kris Humphries	6	20.5	90
Nene Hilario	6	18.0	58
Garrett Temple	4	3.5	38
Jared Dudley	5	21.6	36
Gary Neal	6	17.7	23
Kelly Oubre	3	5.3	-103
DeJuan Blair	2	6.0	-345

In many ways, I find these numbers (drawn from a small sample size) encouraging. The team’s most productive players so far are its youthful trio of high draft picks: John Wall, Otto Porter, and Bradley Beal.

It’s hard to believe veterans like Marcin Gortat and Jared Dudley will continue playing this poorly. Look for Nenê’s production to improve some as well.

On the other hand, don’t expect big jumps in productivity from DeJuan Blair (who apparently has forgotten how to play basketball), Gary Neal and Garrett Temple.

Also, much as I hate to write it, I think Porter’s PPA is ripe for a drop-off. It’s not likely he’ll continue to shoot 70% from two-point range or have a 60-plus percent efg.

About the Wizards New Offense

As a sorta codicil to my Wizards preview at Vice Sports, here’s some background on why the Wizards new “pace & space” offense may not provide as much of a boost to the record as those of us pushing for it might have hoped. And no, this has nothing to do with the house-building performance in the opener at Orlando.

Last season, the Wizards took lots of what Randy Wittman called “good shots.” Wittman’s “good” shots were what us analysts called “the worst shots in the game.” In other words: two-point jumpers. As chronicled in many places around the Internets, the best shots are at-rim, threes, and free throws.

How much better could Washington’s offense have been last season? As economist (and creator of the Wins Produced metric) David Berri might write, with a bit of math I estimated they could have added as much as 1.5 points per 100 possessions merely by having league average shot selection. That may not sound like much, but it translates to 3-4 wins, assuming their defense was the same. In other words, 49-50 wins instead of 46.

So, why am I projecting 42 wins this year instead of 45 or 46? The issue is RELATIVE advantage. Many teams around the league are going to variations of the pace and space. Many teams want to play faster and change their shot mix to emphasize at-rim and three-point attempts.

Improvement from the Wizards offense may be counter-balanced by efficiency improvements in the offenses of other teams, and by the emergence of better defensive strategies as more teams adopt similar offensive playing styles. While the Wizards may be more efficient, other team are likely to be more efficient too — at least until defenses start figuring things out. At which point games will come down to overall talent, execution and as yet undetermined strategic innovations.

Your mileage may vary, but I don’t have much faith in Randy Wittman and his coaching staff to lead the next innovation. That means we’re back to base talent, and the Wizards are about middle of the pack in that area. At least until they sign Kevin Durant next summer.

NBA Playoffs: PPA Update

Just numbers because…no time. This is through games played on May 10, 2015.

Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

Player	POS	Tm	G	MPG	PPA
DeMarre Carroll	SF	ATL	9	35.2	212
Al Horford	C	ATL	9	32.2	182
Paul Millsap	PF	ATL	9	35.7	174
Kyle Korver	SG	ATL	9	38.2	147
Jeff Teague	PG	ATL	9	32.1	108
Shelvin Mack	PG	ATL	7	4.9	96
Mike Scott	PF	ATL	8	11.1	83
Mike Muscala	PF	ATL	3	8.0	66
Dennis Schroder	PG	ATL	9	17.9	63
Pero Antic	PF	ATL	9	16.7	34
Kent Bazemore	SG	ATL	9	17.7	32
John Jenkins	SG	ATL	2	2.5	-85
Elton Brand	PF	ATL	2	2.0	-212
Jae Crowder	SF	BOS	4	25.0	126
Jared Sullinger	PF	BOS	4	20.0	110
Tyler Zeller	C	BOS	4	22.5	85
Isaiah Thomas	PG	BOS	4	29.8	67
Marcus Smart	PG	BOS	4	22.5	57
Evan Turner	SG	BOS	4	29.5	50
Brandon Bass	PF	BOS	4	21.5	49
Avery Bradley	SG	BOS	4	33.3	23
Kelly Olynyk	C	BOS	4	13.3	20
Jonas Jerebko	PF	BOS	4	17.0	-13
Gerald Wallace	SF	BOS	1	4.0	-68
Luigi Datome	SF	BOS	3	4.7	-87
Phil Pressey	PG	BOS	2	2.5	-158
Brook Lopez	C	BRK	6	39.0	166
Alan Anderson	SG	BRK	6	23.7	122
Joe Johnson	SG	BRK	6	41.5	103
Jarrett Jack	PG	BRK	6	25.5	94
Deron Williams	PG	BRK	6	32.0	87
Markel Brown	SG	BRK	2	5.0	68
Thaddeus Young	PF	BRK	6	31.7	55
Bojan Bogdanovic	SF	BRK	6	34.3	48
Mason Plumlee	C	BRK	6	8.2	30
Earl Clark	PF	BRK	2	6.5	-47
Darius Morris	PG	BRK	1	5.0	-84
Mirza Teletovic	PF	BRK	3	5.3	-115
Jerome Jordan	C	BRK	1	5.0	-168
Jimmy Butler	SG	CHI	10	42.2	195
Pau Gasol	PF	CHI	9	32.6	191
Nazr Mohammed	C	CHI	2	5.5	155
Mike Dunleavy	SF	CHI	10	32.1	137
Derrick Rose	PG	CHI	10	37.6	123
Joakim Noah	C	CHI	10	31.9	120
Doug McDermott	SF	CHI	2	3.5	119
Taj Gibson	PF	CHI	10	23.5	117
Kirk Hinrich	SG	CHI	8	10.4	89
Nikola Mirotic	PF	CHI	9	14.7	10
Tony Snell	SF	CHI	9	14.4	7
E’Twaun Moore	SG	CHI	2	3.0	-5
Aaron Brooks	PG	CHI	10	11.5	-14
Kevin Love	PF	CLE	4	26.8	165
Timofey Mozgov	C	CLE	8	25.5	152
Kyrie Irving	PG	CLE	8	40.0	143
Tristan Thompson	PF	CLE	8	30.6	141
LeBron James	SF	CLE	8	41.9	120
Iman Shumpert	SG	CLE	8	31.9	113
J.R. Smith	SG	CLE	6	26.7	107
Mike Miller	SF	CLE	2	14.5	84
Shawn Marion	SF	CLE	3	4.0	48
James Jones	SF	CLE	8	12.6	28
Matthew Dellavedova	SG	CLE	8	16.3	20
Kendrick Perkins	C	CLE	4	5.0	-4
Joe Harris	SG	CLE	1	2.0	-217
Al-Farouq Aminu	SF	DAL	5	30.0	177
Tyson Chandler	C	DAL	5	32.0	161
Charlie Villanueva	PF	DAL	5	8.6	135
Monta Ellis	SG	DAL	5	39.4	111
Dirk Nowitzki	PF	DAL	5	36.2	109
Jose Barea	PG	DAL	5	30.8	68
Raymond Felton	PG	DAL	3	12.0	18
Rajon Rondo	PG	DAL	2	18.5	15
Bernard James	C	DAL	1	2.0	0
Greg Smith	PF	DAL	1	1.0	0
Amar’e Stoudemire	PF	DAL	5	15.0	-3
Devin Harris	PG	DAL	4	18.5	-14
Richard Jefferson	SF	DAL	4	12.8	-30
Chandler Parsons	SF	DAL	1	37.0	-33
Dwight Powell	PF	DAL	2	1.5	-81
Stephen Curry	PG	GSW	7	39.6	179
Andrew Bogut	C	GSW	7	25.9	159
Harrison Barnes	SF	GSW	7	32.3	151
Draymond Green	SF	GSW	7	38.7	149
Klay Thompson	SG	GSW	7	37.1	130
Festus Ezeli	C	GSW	7	6.3	55
Andre Iguodala	SG	GSW	7	28.0	53
Shaun Livingston	PG	GSW	7	14.4	49
Leandro Barbosa	SG	GSW	7	12.6	35
Marreese Speights	PF	GSW	7	7.3	21
Justin Holiday	SG	GSW	1	1.0	0
David Lee	PF	GSW	2	4.5	-106
James Michael McAdoo	PF	GSW	1	1.0	-285
James Harden	SG	HOU	9	35.7	190
Dwight Howard	C	HOU	9	32.7	167
Jason Terry	SG	HOU	9	26.8	95
Clint Capela	C	HOU	9	7.8	82
Terrence Jones	PF	HOU	9	24.4	78
Trevor Ariza	SF	HOU	9	37.4	64
Josh Smith	PF	HOU	9	22.2	61
Pablo Prigioni	PG	HOU	9	20.7	34
Corey Brewer	SF	HOU	9	26.0	15
Nick Johnson	SG	HOU	5	5.6	-7
Joey Dorsey	PF	HOU	5	2.4	-36
Kostas Papanikolaou	SF	HOU	5	3.0	-199
Chris Paul	PG	LAC	9	36.0	230
DeAndre Jordan	C	LAC	11	34.3	193
Blake Griffin	PF	LAC	11	39.4	193
Spencer Hawes	PF	LAC	5	6.2	102
Austin Rivers	PG	LAC	11	18.3	90
Matt Barnes	SF	LAC	11	30.3	90
Dahntay Jones	SF	LAC	9	1.7	87
J.J. Redick	SG	LAC	11	38.7	81
Jamal Crawford	SG	LAC	11	27.5	41
Lester Hudson	SG	LAC	5	6.8	31
Glen Davis	PF	LAC	11	11.5	1
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	LAC	10	5.1	-23
Ekpe Udoh	PF	LAC	4	3.0	-57
Jordan Adams	SG	MEM	2	1.0	853
Russ Smith	PG	MEM	1	1.0	284
Mike Conley	PG	MEM	5	27.8	192
Marc Gasol	C	MEM	8	37.1	172
Courtney Lee	SG	MEM	8	33.5	161
Tony Allen	SG	MEM	8	32.1	151
Kosta Koufos	C	MEM	8	11.8	141
Beno Udrih	PG	MEM	7	19.6	92
Vince Carter	SG	MEM	8	15.8	73
JaMychal Green	PF	MEM	2	1.0	69
Zach Randolph	PF	MEM	8	35.5	66
Nick Calathes	SG	MEM	6	17.3	18
Jeff Green	SF	MEM	8	25.6	7
Jon Leuer	PF	MEM	2	2.0	-37
Zaza Pachulia	C	MIL	6	21.5	140
Jared Dudley	SG	MIL	6	18.3	122
John Henson	C	MIL	6	25.5	118
Khris Middleton	PF	MIL	6	38.7	88
Jerryd Bayless	PG	MIL	6	20.0	53
Tyler Ennis	PG	MIL	1	16.0	47
Giannis Antetokounmpo	SG	MIL	6	33.5	47
Michael Carter-Williams	PG	MIL	6	31.8	43
O.J. Mayo	SG	MIL	6	26.0	41
Jorge Gutierrez	PG	MIL	1	12.0	24
Ersan Ilyasova	PF	MIL	6	23.7	21
Johnny O’Bryant	PF	MIL	1	12.0	-3
Miles Plumlee	C	MIL	1	16.0	-66
Alexis Ajinca	C	NOP	3	3.3	244
Anthony Davis	PF	NOP	4	43.0	198
Dante Cunningham	PF	NOP	4	18.8	143
Quincy Pondexter	SF	NOP	4	31.0	95
Omer Asik	C	NOP	4	19.8	91
Eric Gordon	SG	NOP	4	35.8	85
Ryan Anderson	PF	NOP	4	23.8	81
Jrue Holiday	PG	NOP	3	18.3	58
Tyreke Evans	SF	NOP	4	31.3	49
Norris Cole	PG	NOP	4	26.5	-39
Allen Crabbe	SG	POR	2	19.5	150
Meyers Leonard	C	POR	5	21.2	144
Alonzo Gee	SF	POR	1	3.0	133
Joel Freeland	C	POR	2	3.5	96
C.J. McCollum	SG	POR	5	33.2	93
Robin Lopez	C	POR	5	23.4	89
LaMarcus Aldridge	PF	POR	5	41.6	79
Nicolas Batum	SF	POR	5	41.8	66
Chris Kaman	C	POR	3	12.3	56
Damian Lillard	PG	POR	5	40.2	54
Steve Blake	PG	POR	5	8.6	-26
Arron Afflalo	SG	POR	3	20.0	-130
Tim Frazier	PG	POR	2	1.5	-312
Tim Duncan	PF	SAS	7	35.7	213
Kawhi Leonard	SF	SAS	7	35.7	154
Patrick Mills	PG	SAS	7	16.0	154
Marco Belinelli	SG	SAS	7	16.6	136
Boris Diaw	PF	SAS	7	28.3	96
Danny Green	SG	SAS	7	29.1	86
Manu Ginobili	SG	SAS	7	18.7	80
Cory Joseph	PG	SAS	4	5.5	77
Jeff Ayres	PF	SAS	3	4.0	43
Tiago Splitter	C	SAS	7	17.6	23
Tony Parker	PG	SAS	7	30.0	-18
Aron Baynes	C	SAS	4	10.0	-52
Matt Bonner	PF	SAS	7	5.1	-70
Greg Stiemsma	C	TOR	1	2.0	530
Jonas Valanciunas	C	TOR	4	26.5	141
Patrick Patterson	PF	TOR	4	26.5	121
Amir Johnson	PF	TOR	4	28.0	90
DeMar DeRozan	SG	TOR	4	39.8	74
Terrence Ross	SF	TOR	4	26.8	38
Lou Williams	SG	TOR	4	25.5	26
Greivis Vasquez	PG	TOR	4	25.3	14
Kyle Lowry	PG	TOR	4	32.8	-6
Tyler Hansbrough	PF	TOR	4	12.0	-13
James Johnson	PF	TOR	2	6.0	-117
Marcin Gortat	C	WAS	7	32.6	227
John Wall	PG	WAS	5	38.2	175
Paul Pierce	SF	WAS	7	29.4	160
Otto Porter	SF	WAS	7	33.3	153
Kris Humphries	PF	WAS	1	5.0	140
Bradley Beal	SG	WAS	7	41.3	109
Drew Gooden	PF	WAS	7	18.3	101
Ramon Sessions	PG	WAS	7	22.6	62
Nene Hilario	PF	WAS	7	24.6	54
Will Bynum	SG	WAS	2	8.5	35
Martell Webster	SF	WAS	1	4.0	34
Kevin Seraphin	C	WAS	5	8.8	-19
Garrett Temple	SG	WAS	2	11.0	-46
Rasual Butler	SF	WAS	2	3.5	-82

The Inside Story of How the Wizards Beat the Raptors

The Washington Wizards vanquished the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the NBA playoffs thanks to an innovative approach conceived by team president Ernie Grunfeld, funded by owner Ted Leonsis, and implemented by head coach Randy Wittman. Drawing upon unique abilities possessed by point guard John Wall, Wittman and Grunfeld developed a plan that in the days before the playoffs sent Wall and center Marcin Gortat on a (until now) top secret mission to prehistoric times.

“It was just a little time travel,” Wall said, stifling a yawn. “Just doing whatever I can to help my teammates out.”

” ‘Time travel?’ He said that?” Wittman snapped when told of Wall’s comment. “Okay, first of all, it’s not time travel. It’s just a way of using John’s ability to alter the space-time continuum to bridge the interdimensional gap between this reality and another in which conditions very much like our prehistoric era continue to exist.”

According to sources, Wall was essential to executing the project, but Gortat volunteered.

“We were going to play Raptor,” the Polish center said. “This way I could study real raptor, see how it move, see how it fight, see how it love. I fight six velociraptor at same time — hand-to-hand. After that, Toronto Raptor not so tough.”

While Gortat engaged in mortal battle with ferocious dinosaurs from the later Cretaceous Period, Wall did no fighting and did not engage with the ferocious reptiles.

“I’m competitive, but I’m not a fighter,” Wall said. “i just mostly slept.”

While Wall’s account of an extended nap — made necessary, he said, by the rigors of time travel — had its charm, it did not stand up to investigation. In reality, Wall executed the second part of the Grunfeldian Plan, and tracked down a pubescent Paul Pierce.

“Paul’s one of the oldest players in the league, and we were concerned about his physical condition,” said Wizards vice president Tommy Sheppard, speaking on condition of anonymity. “By sending John and March back seventy-one million years, we felt we could get March first-hand experience with some velociraptors and we could do something to help Paul get back to top form. This was definitely a two birds, one stone kind of thing.”

Wall’s mission was to locate the young Pierce and persuade him to provide biological samples, including blood, spinal fluid and stem cells. The samples would then be combined in Wittman’s laboratory, located deep beneath the Verizon Center, into a genetic cocktail that would rejuvenate the aging Pierce.

“Gotta say it didn’t take much convincing,” Wall said when he learned that details of his trip were known. “Once I told him about his later self being on a team in the playoffs, his competitive nature kicked in and he wanted to help. ‘Course I first had to beat him in a game of Micropachycephalosaurus before he’d do it, but basketball hadn’t even been invented back then so I had a little bit of an advantage. It was tough, but…well…you saw what happened in round one. Look man, Pierce ain’t changed a bit.”

Successful execution of the Grunfeldian Plan had several positive effects fans could see. Gortat and Pierce performed spectacularly in round one. And, freed from the rigors of researching and theorizing about interdimensional temporal travel, Wittman was able to refocus his attention on coaching the team.

“I looked at the numbers and said to the guys ‘What the hell is this?’ ” Wittman said. “Why are we taking so many two-point jumpers? What’s wrong with you people? Do I have to think of everything? Attack the hoop and shoot threes.”

The plan nearly backfired, however, when Wall, exhausted from interdimensional travel, searching for the younger version of Pierce, and the epic game of Micropachycephalosaurus, played horribly in game one. Sources with knowledge of the situation said Wall recovered thanks to some remaining bottles of Caron Butler’s “Tuff Juice.”

While details remain scarce, preparation for the team’s second round matchup with the Atlanta Hawks involved a journey to Middle Earth where Gortat taught teammates the art of riding the Great Eagles of Manwë. Sources could not corroborate the story with cell phone photos or video by publication time. I was able to obtain this image of a young Marcin Gortat riding one of the Great Eagles in Middle Earth, which Gortat claims is located not far from where he was born in Lodz, Poland.

A young Marcin Gortat riding a Great Eagle of Manwë.

Player Production Average: First Round

WASHINGTON WIZARDS	POS	GMS	MPG	PPA
Marcin Gortat	C	4	31.3	294
Paul Pierce	SF	4	28.5	209
Will Bynum	SG	1	4.0	183
John Wall	PG	4	38.0	165
Otto Porter	SF	4	32.0	147
Kris Humphries	PF	1	5.0	146
Bradley Beal	SG	4	41.8	116
Drew Gooden	PF	4	20.5	107
Nene Hilario	PF	4	24.3	82
Ramon Sessions	PG	4	16.5	67
Kevin Seraphin	C	3	11.0	50
Martell Webster	SF	1	4.0	36
Rasual Butler	SF	2	3.5	-85

TORONTO RAPTORS	POS	GMS	MPG	PPA
Greg Stiemsma	C	1	2.0	535
Jonas Valanciunas	C	4	26.5	142
Patrick Patterson	PF	4	26.5	122
Amir Johnson	PF	4	28.0	91
DeMar DeRozan	SG	4	39.8	75
Terrence Ross	SF	4	26.8	38
Lou Williams	SG	4	25.5	26
Greivis Vasquez	PG	4	25.3	14
Kyle Lowry	PG	4	32.8	-6
Tyler Hansbrough	PF	4	12.0	-13
James Johnson	PF	2	6.0	-118

While the playoffs are the most important part of the NBA season, fans and analysts tend to go overboard in using postseason results to reach new conclusions. The Wizards were impressive in round one, but it’s worth keeping in mind that any given round of the post-season (especially a four-game sweep) is the very definition of Small Sample Size Theater. Bradley Beal led the Wizards with 167 minutes in the first round.

I’d caution against overreaching in using the win over Toronto to make a significant reassessment of the Wizards. They’ll get a tougher test against the Hawks.

That said, the good news from round one was getting good production from the team’s youthful triumvirate. Washington was led by Gortat and Pierce, both of whom were outlandishly efficient, and got outstanding play from Wall and Otto Porter, and solid production from Bradley Beal.

Unsurprisingly (considering Washington’s resounding series win), five Wizards were more productive than the most productive Toronto player. The Raptors were hampered by an extreme lack of production from its backcourt, including a net negative performance from All-Star Kyle Lowry.

Meanwhile, Gortat was the league’s most productive player in the first round, and Pierce’s production ranked eighth.

NBA Playoffs: What Are The Odds?

Okay, I’ve tried several different ways to talk myself into predicting that the Wizards will somehow beat the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the playoffs and meet their doom in a second round matchup with the Atlanta Hawks. Hasn’t worked, though.

I know Toronto struggled over the last couple months of the season. So did the Wizards. I know the Raptors have a not-so-good coach. So do the Wizards. In a way, the two teams are opposing images of the other. Washington has a good defense and a crummy offense; Toronto has a terrific offense and a bad defense. The key difference: Toronto is better.

The gap between the teams isn’t oceanic. Washington’s odds in any one particular contest in the upcoming series aren’t awful. They have basically a 41% chance of winning at Toronto and a slightly better than coin flip odds of winning at home. In terms of probability, it would be something like winning three straight coin flips, and then winning a “loaded” toss where the odds have been lowered from 50-50 to 60-40. It’s possible, but not likely.

The Wizards could be helped a bit by Kyle Lowry’s iffy back, but the numbers accumulated over a six-month season say they’ll be lucky to pull off the upset. On the bright side for fans hoping to at least be entertained, there’s only about a 9% chance the Raptors sweep.

As you can see from the table below, the Wizards are significant underdogs against the Raptors. The only teams with worse odds of winning their first round series are the eight seeds (Brooklyn and New Orleans), and the East’s seven seed (Boston). The best chances for first-round upsets come in the more balanced West. Houston vs. Dallas and the Clippers vs. the Spurs look to tight.

The best chance for a seeding upset is likely to happen in the second round where the Clippers would be favored against either Houston or Dallas.

The numbers suggest that Golden State — the league’s best team all season — has the best chance of winning the championship this season. I actually estimate them with a better than 50% chance of being champions. Despite coasting through the last few weeks of the season, Atlanta finished the regular season as the East’s best team by a significant margin. They’ll be tested in the Eastern Conference Finals against Cleveland and Lebron James.

EAST
1st RND	HOME	ROAD	WINNER	ODDS
1 vs 8	ATL	BRK	ATL	91%
2 vs 7	CLE	BOS	CLE	79%
3 vs 6	CHI	MIL	CHI	70%
4 vs 5	TOR	WAS	TOR	70%

2nd RND	HOME	ROAD	WINNER	ODDS
1 vs 4	ATL	TOR	ATL	69%
2 vs 3	CLE	CHI	CLE	64%

ECF	HOME	ROAD	WINNER	ODDS
1 vs 2	ATL	CLE	ATL	61%

WEST
1st RND	HOME	ROAD	WINNER	ODDS
1 vs 8	GSW	NOP	GSW	92%
2 vs 7	HOU	DAL	HOU	58%
3 vs 6	LAC	SAS	LAC	57%
4 vs 5	POR	MEM	POR	61%

2nd RND	HOME	ROAD	WINNER	ODDS
1 vs 4	GSW	POR	GSW	83%
2 vs 3	HOU	LAC	LAC	65%

WCF	HOME	ROAD	WINNER	ODDS
1 vs 3	GSW	LAC	GSW	73%

FINALS	HOME	ROAD	WINNER	ODDS
1 vs 1	GSW	ATL	GSW	98%

Wizards Update: A Season of Discontent

The Wizards concluded the regular season portion of a #SoWizards season losing back-to-back overtime games. The first of those losses — a double overtime snoozer against Indiana — was perhaps the most #SoWizards moment of the season: on the eve of the playoffs, Randy Wittman played John Wall, Marcin Gortat, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Drew Gooden more than 38 minutes each in a desperate effort to win a game that meant literally nothing to the Wizards.

Washington concluded the season 46-35, two wins better than last year’s record (and one game better than my pre-season projection). And yet, there’s a pervasive discontent with the team and its management. Some of the disappointment is a reaction to expectations that were pushed beyond the bonds of reality when the team was rolling through the junior varsity portion of their early-season schedule.

The dissatisfaction may run deeper than simply feeling let down that Washington didn’t get to 50-plus wins for the first time since the 1978-79 season. I think part of the reaction is the collective realization that what’s been sold to Wizards fans the past couple seasons has been kind of a fraud.

Getting above .500 and making the playoffs was supposed to be a sign of growth. It was supposed to be a progression. First, have a chance to win most nights. Second, make the playoffs and gain valuable experience. Third, build on that trip to the playoffs and ride the improvement of the team’s young core to deeper and deeper postseason runs until they can compete for a title.

But, making the playoffs has been built largely on NBA senior citizens who had something left in the tank, but not much of a future. In the span of a few short years, the Wizards paid a steep price in player acquisition resources to construct and old team. Sure, the old guys can be replaced, but the man leading the rebuild is likely to be the same one who steered the franchise into a ditch and then perpetrated the “fraud.” There is little reason to have confidence in Ernie Grunfeld reconstructing the roster in a manner that will make it anything other than a mid-level playoff team.

Meanwhile, their young core — Wall, Beal and Porter — hasn’t improved much. Wall has made the biggest improvement, yet still ranks solidly below the game’s elite. The best that can be said of Beal and Porter is that they possess potential. Whether that potential ends up getting translated into meaningful production is a question mark, especially considering how poorly the team is coached.

In general, fans overrate the impact of coaches. It’s clear, however, the Wizards operate at something of a disadvantage because of Randy Wittman’s antiquated notions of offensive basketball. Washington actually shoots the ball decently, but they’re rendered less efficient than they could be by their reliance on two-point jumpers. As has been pointed out numerous times by numerous commentators, two-point jumpers are exactly the shot the defense wants an opposing offense to take. The Wizards offense is built around that shot.

It’s almost impossible to unpack how much Wittman’s offense hinders the Wizards. I’ll give it a shot during the offseason, though.

On the bright side, there’s the team’s defense — fifth best in the league this year, and in a virtual tie with Golden State for league’s best over the last half of the season.

I’m hoping to have some playoffs analysis up tomorrow, but for now, here are the final PPA numbers for the Wizards.

Player Production Average Update

The numbers under each date represent the player’s PPA for the entire season to that date. The number in the far right column (labeled PPA) is the player’s current PPA through games played last night. For a look at how players on other teams rate, visit here.

Perhaps Wall was cruising over the last couple months of the season. He still ended up with the best PPA of his career (he posted a 139 each of the preceding two seasons), but I’m convinced he’s capable of MUCH more. The areas for biggest improvement remain what they’ve been since he entered the league: shooting from the floor and turnovers.

By my reckoning, this was the second best season of Gortat’s career (the best was a 186 PPA with Phoenix (and Steve Nash) in 2011-12). He was edged out by Wall in total production because Wall played more minutes. He’s not an elite center, but he’s more than solid.

Paul Pierce made news this week with candid comments in an interview with ESPN. While his production has declined during the season, his overall performance has been remarkable for his age. In my historical database (which goes back to 1977-78), Pierce’s 126 PPA is the best season for a 37-year old SF. The closest contenders are Scottie Pippen (120) and Dominique Wilkins (119).

After those three, it’s difficult to generate much to say that’s positive. Beal ended up a hair below average for a third straight season. Nenê continued to decline. This was his least productive season since he was 25 years old. It’s a good thing his contract expires after next season.

The bright side for Washington is that they play in the epically weak Eastern Conference. As mediocre as they are (and they are mediocre), they have a chance in the first round against the vulnerable Toronto Raptors. More on that tomorrow.

Wizards Update: The Home Stretch

There’s a temptation to note the Wizards have won four in a row and five of their last six and conclude they’re headed for the playoffs in good form. I don’t share that optimism, however. This is a stretch of games where Washington was expected to win with four games against three of the league’s weakest teams — Charlotte (21st in Simple Rating System — a power ranking published by Basketball-Reference.com that combines scoring differential with strength of schedule), New York (30th) and Philadelphia (29th) twice.

Failing to win at least four of the six would have been cause for real concern. Getting an “extra” win against Memphis was encouraging, although it’s worth noting the Grizzlies were coming off a hard-fought win against Oklahoma City the previous night while the Wizards coasted to an easy (and restful — the only starter to play more than 30 minutes was Bradley Beal) over the hapless Knicks.

The Wizards aren’t “fixed,” they’re playing bad opponents. It’s good that they’re beating those teams, but that’s not the same as saying they’re in good shape. Realistically speaking, they continue to look how they’ve looked all season — a slightly better than average team that feasts on the 99-pound weaklings in the East and can sometimes summon the game to challenge (and even beat) a good team if stuff goes right for them and wrong for the other side.

The preceding is talking about the team’s big picture. The overall. They’re excellent on defense, and have been since the end of January. Unfortunately, their offense has been terrible during the same time frame. Since the playoffs are about to start, we’re about to hear a bunch of the old maxim that defense wins in the postseason. Like a lot of truisms, it’s half true. Unless the Wizards are able to operate with some level of offensive efficiency against higher-quality opponents, they’re not going deep in the playoffs.

I’ll get more into postseason matchups when the regular season concludes, but it does help that Washington is in the East. First, because they’ll be in the playoffs at all. Out West, they’d at best be scrapping for the eighth seed. In their actual conference, they’ll have a punchers chance in the first round against Toronto or Chicago.

Player Production Average Update

Searching for encouragement as the playoffs approach? Look at Gortat and Wall — both of whom have been consistently good all season. Beal has played better the past few weeks, as have Sessions, Porter and Gooden.

On the other hand, Nenê and Pierce have struggled. The hope is that they’re recharging for the playoffs. But, they’re also the team’s oldest players, and they could be wearing down from the long season.

Wizards Update: Death Spiral

When the NBA entered its annual All-Star break, I started work on a piece intended to look at how teams similar to this year’s Wizards throughout league history fared when they reached the playoffs. At the time, Washington was 33-21, and their Simple Rating System (SRS) — a measure of team strength that combines scoring differential with strength of schedule — was +1.67 per game.

In the six games they’ve played since the break, they faced opponents with a combined scoring differential of -1.15. Even an average team would have been expected to win four of the six. The Wizards went 1-5 and were outscored by a whopping 86 points. That’s 14.3 points per game. Even if I throw out the 38-point loss to Cleveland as an aberration, Washington lost the other five by 9.6 points per game. Their SRS now stands at -0.02.

All season, I’ve been writing variations on the theme of “The Wizards Just Ain’t That Good,” but I’m still surprised by their catastrophic collapse since the All-Star break. What’s scary: their remaining 22 games don’t look as easy as they did just a few weeks ago.

Fourteen of their remaining contests are against likely playoff teams. And, the key statistical indicators of team strength I watch are all dipping. This recent stretch of horrific basketball could merely be a rough patch for an average team, but it could also be a signal of an aging group that’s about to flat line.

When I run the numbers through my “who’s gonna win” machine, the results are…well…bad. In a worst-case scenario, the Wizards would limp into the playoffs with just seven wins over their last 22. I think they’ll be better than that, but it’s hard to find more than 11 wins the rest of the way (which, by the way, would give them a final record of 45-37, which happens to be what I projected for them back in October). Barring a miracle about-face, those dreams of a 50-win season will remain just that.

As long as I’m fretting, here’s another reason for Wizards fans to be concerned: this interview of team president Ernie Grunfeld by radio guy Dave Johnson. Presented with respectful softball questions by Johnson, Grunfeld offered his thoughts on how his team could pull out of its skid — and thoroughly misdiagnosed what’s wrong.

In the interview, Grunfeld suggested the team’s biggest problem has been a decline in their defense. He said their results will improve when they play better defense, get out on the fast break and “compete” on a nightly basis.

Here’s a look at the Wizards pre- and post-All-Star break:

TIME	PACE	ORTG	DRTG
Pre-ASB	93.5	105.4	102.9
Post-ASB	96.7	93.4	108.3
CHANGE	3.2	-11.9	-5.4

What the numbers show is that the Wizards have played faster since the All-Star break, but have been worse. Grunfeld gets partial credit on the “play better defense” portion of his prescription since that would be a good thing to do. However, The drop in offensive efficiency is more than double their change in defensive efficiency. That means the team’s struggles are first and foremost because of its offense.

In case you were wondering, forgetting the debacle against Cleveland doesn’t change the analysis. Their defense the past three games has been excellent and yet they lost two because their offense was a horror show. If the Wizards want to start winning, they do need to get better on both ends, but their most important fix will be on offense.

There’s another issue with Grunfeld’s prescription — the data show the team’s offensive and defensive efficiency are uncorrelated. I’ve been tracking offensive and defensive efficiency by pace for years now, and this season’s result is the same as every other year. Good defense doesn’t cause good offense. Good offense doesn’t cause good defense. It’s almost as if offense and defense occur at different ends of the floor.

This season, if the numbers suggest anything it’s the Wizards show a very slight tendency to play better defense when they’re worse on offense. In terms of pace effects, Washington has a very slight tendency to play worse on offense in faster-paced games. But these “effects” are so small they’re basically meaningless.

Player Production Average Update

My apologies for the format. The spreadsheet has reached a width that WordPress struggles to accommodate.

Early returns on the Andre Miller for Ramon Sessions trade aren’t good. As the table above shows, Miller had a PPA of 80 with the Wizards; Sessions has managed a Maynor-esque 13 so far. Meanwhile, Miller’s PPA with the Kings is a robust 90 (good for a backup PG). Sessions in Sacramento posted a 16 PPA.

Unsurprisingly for a team that barely ended a five-game losing streak, production for most guys was down. The biggest decliner was John Wall, but he was hardly alone. The team also saw drop-offs from Nenê, Garrett Temple, Rasual Butler, and Kevin Seraphin.

Perhaps the Wizards can turn things around, but it’s an old team that doesn’t have a ton of upside. Over the season’s final 22 contests, Wall will likely play more like he did earlier in the season, but it’s not realistic to think any of the team’s older players have much room for improvement. Maybe Beal or Porter can play better to close out the season, but neither looks ready to provide a surge in production.

Realistically speaking, if the Wizards can go .500 the rest of the way, I’d call it a success. But, winning just seven or eight of their remaining 22 is a realistic possibility as well. That would leave them with 41 or 42 wins, which would almost certainly relegate them to the sixth seed. Where they’d probably draw Cleveland and get bounced from the playoffs in the first round.

So. Wizards.

Wizards Update: Just How Good Are They?

The Wizards continue to rack up wins — even over the last 10 games, which has been the team’s most challenging stretch of the year. Last night, they did something that has me typing words that would have been difficult to imagine typing just last season: Fueled by a strong performance from Kevin Seraphin, Washington blew open a close contest late to secure a comfortable win against the San Antonio Spurs.

It was the team’s first win over the Spurs since 2005. The team’s record now sits at 26-12, good for second in their division and in the conference. Their .684 winning percentage is that of a 56-win team over an 82-game schedule — rarefied air for this franchise.

But…are they really that good? Basketball analytics has shown that scoring differential is a better predictor of team strength than its record. Luck can push a team’s record up or down a few wins, but how much it outscores its opponents offers a truer measure of relative strength.

So far this season, Washington’s scoring differential is +2.13, a mark that would suggest a 47-win team. Add in their weak schedule (fifth easiest in the league), and their differential falls to +1.49, which would suggest a 45-win team.

That +1.49 is Basketball-Reference’s Simple Rating System, a strength rating that combines scoring differential with strength of schedule. Of teams in NBA history with a similar SRS (between +1.0 and +2.0), the Wizards have the best winning percentage. They’re at .684 so far. Next closest is the 1961-62 Lakers at .675.

Of the 115 teams in that similar SRS grouping, the average winning percentage is .554 — so, 45 wins.

Narrow the focus to an SRS between +1.4 and +1.6, and the field is cut to 17 teams. And the winning percentage drops to .541 — about 44 wins.

But, here’s where that strength of schedule thing works in Washington’s favor. While the Wizards aren’t overwhelmingly strong, the East remains historically weak. Their schedule the rest of the way is about 0.7 points per game weaker than average — roughly the quality of a 39-win team the rest of the way. Because of that, Washington projects to finish with 51-53 wins, even without improving their scoring differential.

Weekly Player Production Average Update

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	11/10	11/18	11/24	12/3	12/8	12/17	12/23	12/29	1/6	PPA
John Wall	38	35.5	185	180	180	168	167	175	171	171	167	172
Marcin Gortat	38	29.5	181	186	170	175	179	178	178	173	158	157
Paul Pierce	36	26.4	140	138	165	134	134	154	142	143	148	144
Nene Hilario	31	24.5	108	102	68	67	83	94	96	97	101	112
Bradley Beal	29	33.4			122	63	69	94	90	98	102	106
Rasual Butler	34	22.7	60	131	116	128	155	140	134	123	99	101
Kris Humphries	37	21.5	46	87	90	82	109	100	88	109	103	98
Andre Miller	38	12.6	72	69	92	103	102	101	89	85	97	94
Otto Porter	28	18.2	97	106	101	95	84	81	84	82	85	82
Garrett Temple	29	12.8	121	112	96	100	98	91	90	75	73	68
Kevin Seraphin	37	15.6	38	13	17	12	28	34	45	36	35	44
Drew Gooden	21	12.2	42	40	59	78	64	47	47	44	32	22
DeJuan Blair	12	4.8	-41	-40	-40	-74	-56	-47	-46	-34	2	16
Martell Webster	5	11.6									-150	-44
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117	-117	-114	-113	-111	-111	-110	-110

It was fun to see Seraphin follow a good performance against the Hawks with an outstanding one against the Spurs. But, it’s going to take a sustained run of solid play from the big fella to convince me he belongs in the rotation. Previous analysis of Seraphin’s game log showed he has an above average game about 20% of the time. Over the course of an 82-game schedule, it’s almost inevitable that he’d have at least one two-game sequence where he performs above average in each. There’s approximately a 47% chance he’ll have a three-game sequence in which he performs above average.

In fact, he’s already done it this season against Denver, at Boston and home against Boston from December 5-8. He followed up that three-game stretch with a meh game at Orlando, two negative games against the Clippers and Jazz, and then a replacement level performance against Minnesota. If you want a sign that he’s truly improved, wait until he’s strong together four or more consecutive above average performances.

Also good: upticks in performance from Wall, Nenê, and Beal. Gortat’s performance was flat, but significantly down his production in December.

There seems to be some sentiment among Wizards fans (and maybe even the coach) that the team needs a backup PG to replace or supplement Miller. While Miller is a defensive liability, his overall performance (which is what matters) has been solid.

If the team is looking to upgrade for the second half of the season, it wouldn’t hurt to add a third PG for insurance. But, more pressing issues are Seraphin as the backup center, and perhaps a more athletic 3&D type to backup Beal.

Wizards Update: Successful Trip, But Concerns Remain

While fans worried during Washington’s three-game losing streak over the past week, the Wizards completed a successful road trip against Western Conference opponents with wins over Houston and New Orleans. Entering the trip as decided underdogs in all five contests, the Wizards were competitive in all but the Dallas game — which came the night after a gritty win against the Rockets.

Upon completion of the trip, I updated my “who’s gonna win” calculator and projected the Wizards’ final record. At the Washington Post this week, columnist Thomas Boswell did a nice job explaining why the Wizards aren’t as good as their record. Everything Boswell wrote is valid and correct, but…being in the Eastern Conference this season is incredibly fortunate for a middle-of-the-pack team like the Wizards.

Based on season performance through last night’s games, I estimate Washington will finish with 51-54 wins — the best season for the franchise since the mid-1970s.

My biggest concerns for the Wizards going forward are these:

Age — Many seem to think this is a young team, but it’s not. They have the league’s 7th oldest rotation, and they’re reliant on 30+ year olds in key roles — including the 38-year old Andre Miller and the 37-year old Paul Pierce. And there’s Nenê, whose play has declined the past couple years as he’s suffered through a series of nagging injuries.
No elite producers — I can hear the screens breaking all over the DC area. What about John Wall?! He’s an All-Star, a top five PG, and you wrote last week that he’s the league’s best defensive PG. Well, some of that is true. But, good as Wall has been this season, he’s still well behind the game’s elite players when it comes to doing things that cause a team to win. As I’ve pointed out previously, Wall does a lot of good things when he’s on the floor, but…he also does a lot of things that hurt — specifically turnovers, missed shots and poor shot selection. To become an elite team, the Wizards need him to play even better than he already has.
Kevin Seraphin — The coaches keep playing him, and in games against weaker opponents he doesn’t hurt too much. Against better teams, it hurts to have Seraphin in the lineup. That was apparent in the loss against Oklahoma City. In a game the Wizards lost by seven, they were -11 when Seraphin was on the floor. For those who don’t want to do the math, that means Washington was +7 when he was on the bench.
Lack of Progress from the youngsters — I’m a big fan of Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, but both guys have been pretty average so far. Beal’s 102 PPA (see below) is a modest improvement, but is below average for a starter (125). Porter has been okay as a backup, and is performing at a level similar to that of players with similar collegiate production. Neither guy has demonstrated they should be considered foundational players for the Wizards. And, I think Washington will need one of the two (preferably Beal) to make that leap this season if they hope to reach the conference Finals…or more.
Coaching — Encouraged by head coach Randy Wittman, the Wizards continue to take too many two-point jumpers. Sometimes they’re necessary, but the math is abundantly clear that they’re bad shots — exactly the ones the defense wants them to take.

Weekly Player Production Average Update

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	11/10	11/18	11/24	12/03	12/08	12/17	12/23	12/29	PPA
John Wall	29	35.6	185	180	180	168	167	175	171	171	167
Marcin Gortat	29	29.6	181	186	170	175	179	178	178	173	158
Paul Pierce	28	26.4	140	138	165	134	134	154	142	143	148
Kris Humphries	28	21.7	46	87	90	82	109	100	88	109	103
Bradley Beal	20	33.2			122	63	69	94	90	98	102
Nene Hilario	22	24.2	108	102	68	67	83	94	96	97	101
Rasual Butler	25	22.6	60	131	116	128	155	140	134	123	99
Andre Miller	29	12.8	72	69	92	103	102	101	89	85	97
Otto Porter	28	18.7	97	106	101	95	84	81	84	82	85
Garrett Temple	25	14.0	121	112	96	100	98	91	90	75	73
Kevin Seraphin	28	15.4	38	13	17	12	28	34	45	36	35
Drew Gooden	18	13.1	42	40	59	78	64	47	47	44	32
DeJuan Blair	9	5.0	-41	-40	-40	-74	-56	-47	-46	-34	2
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117	-117	-114	-113	-111	-111	-110
Martell Webster	2	10.0									-150

No major surprises considering the team went 2-3 over the past week. Wall took over the top spot in the team’s PPA rankings because Gortat’s play dropped further.

Rasual Butler’s anticipated reversion to the mean is in progress. Hopefully, Beal’s play will improve as Butler’s dips.

Seraphin held steady…below replacement level.

For the first time in weeks, the Wizards dusted off DeJuan Blair, and he moved his PPA out of negative territory.

Martell Webster looked terrible in his return from back surgery.

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: