Wizards Doppelgangers: Bump and Bruise

So far, I’ve used my Statistical Doppelganger Machine to find “most similar” players in NBA history for the following:

• The young backcourt: John Wall and Bradley Beal,
• The Ancients: Nenê, Marcin Gortat, Paul Pierce, Drew Gooden and Rasual Butler, and
• The Enigmas: Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr., and Garrett Temple.

Next through the machine: Bump (Kris Humphries, DeJuan Blair and Kevin Seraphin), and Bruise (Martell Webster).

For those interested, I discuss the method a bit in the first post. Basically, the Machine looks for most similar production at a similar age.

First up: Humphries.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Kris Humphries	PF	2013-14	28	BOS	100	132	146
Chris Wilcox	PF	2010-11	28	DET	90	121	165
Lawrence Funderburke	PF	1998-99	28	SAC	89	120	120
Mark Strickland	F/C	1997-98	27	MIA	89	111	111
Tom Owens	PF/C	1977-78	28	POR	89	126	149
Taj Gibson	PF	2011-12	26	CHI	89	105	105
Antonio McDyess	PF	2006-07	32	DET	88	115	175
Marcus Camby	C	2002-03	28	DEN	88	131	212
Will Perdue	C	1994-95	29	CHI	88	140	140
Loy Vaught	PF	1992-93	24	LAC	87	99	131
Clarence Weatherspoon	PF	1999-00	29	MIA	87	108	168

What Humphries did last season generates a nice list of solidly productive role playing bigs, which is about what I’d have expected. The group’s average peak performance is 147 — for Humprhies it’s 146. Average peak age for this group was 26.5 — Humprhies appears to have peaked at 25. I say “appears” because Humphries, of course, is still going.

In the seasons after those shown here, the similars were a mixed bag of ups and downs. As a group, they were steady. This suggests that Humphries may be in the “plateau” portion of his career production arc. (That arc typically follows a trendline of improving production early in a player’s career to a peak between ages 25 and 28, a plateau until the early 30s, and then decline.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
DeJuan Blair	PF	2013-14	24	DAL	100	97	145
Dennis Rodman*	F	1986-87	25	DET	90	84	180
Craig Smith	PF	2006-07	23	MIN	90	87	91
Matt Geiger	F/C	1993-94	24	MIA	89	87	153
Gary Trent	PF	2002-03	28	MIN	88	103	133
Channing Frye	PF	2007-08	24	POR	88	77	118
Jerome Whitehead	C	1982-83	26	SDC	88	104	128
Alan Henderson	PF	1996-97	24	ATL	88	67	116
Robert Traylor	C	2003-04	26	NOH	88	79	143
Greg Ballard	SF	1978-79	24	WSB	88	114	157
Ivan Johnson	PF	2011-12	27	ATL	88	73	83

I very much like seeing Dennis Rodman’s name on the list, although this is the pre-RODMAN Rodman. This was actually Rodman’s rookie season, and while he rebounded well, he wasn’t yet the outlandish board man he’d later become. This Rodman was even willing to shoot the ball now and then — he used roughly 19% of his team’s possessions while on the floor (average is 20%).

The rest is kind of an odd group at first glance. There are physical, burly types like Smith, Trent, Traylor and Johnson, and more finesse types Frye, Henderson and Geiger.

You may be wondering what Frye is doing on this list at all. But, this isn’t the stretch-4 Frye, this is the PF/C type in his second to last year in Portland. He had just 10 three-point attempts that season with the Blazers. Two years later, he’d hoist 392 for the Suns.

The average peak PPA for this group was 132 at age 25.6. Blair’s best season was a 145 as a rookie, but he’s just 25 years old this season. This group of similars was a mix of improvement and decline in the year following the one shown.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Kevin Seraphin	C	2013-14	24	WAS	100	35	95
Stanislav Medvedenko	PF	2002-03	23	LAL	90	17	84
Mark Alarie	PF	1987-88	24	WSB	88	42	77
Keith Lee	F/C	1986-87	24	CLE	87	55	77
Bill Martin	SF	1985-86	23	IND	86	34	34
Greg Foster	F/C	1990-91	22	WSB	86	36	42
Malik Allen	PF	2006-07	28	CHI	86	35	76
Channing Frye	PF	2008-09	25	POR	86	27	118
Melvin Turpin	C	1986-87	26	CLE	86	50	130
Josh Powell	PF	2008-09	26	LAL	86	29	61
Brad Lohaus	F/C	1987-88	23	BOS	85	49	93

I know there’s a lot of hope that Seraphin may finally have a breakout season. Even before looking at his comps, I’d have recommended betting against that “breakout.” This list only solidifies that recommendation.

To me, Seraphin is a reflection of how brutal the NBA can be. He’s one of the better basketball players in the world — top 600, easy. Maybe top 500. But, he hasn’t been good enough to be a bona fide NBA player.

No matter what slice of time I examine, I keep finding the same problems with Seraphin’s play: too many turnovers, too few rebounds, rampant fouling. That was true, even during his “good” stretch a few years ago when he performed at about the level of an average NBA player. Since then, he’s been awful. The league’s least productive center two years ago. The second least productive center last season.

This group of similars can be characterized as peaking early (age 24.8) and low (average peak PPA: 81). The best of the group was Mel Turpin. That Frye season was his last in Portland, and the worst of his career.

The good news is that most of these players improved the season following the one that appears on the list. The bad news: the average improvement wasn’t much.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Martell Webster	SF	2013-14	27	WAS	100	77	114
Keith Bogans	SG	2007-08	27	ORL	95	81	89
Morris Peterson	SF	2003-04	26	TOR	90	86	111
Richard Jefferson	SF	2011-12	31	SAS/GSW	90	93	162
Rasual Butler	G/F	2006-07	27	NOK	90	61	89
Pat Garrity	SF	2002-03	26	ORL	89	79	89
Matt Carroll	SF	2007-08	27	CHA	89	59	105
Brandon Rush	SG	2010-11	25	IND	89	66	106
Quentin Richardson	SG	2008-09	28	NYK	89	82	123
Gordan Giricek	SF	2003-04	26	ORL	88	71	99
Ryan Gomes	SF	2009-10	27	MIN	88	83	119

Webster will be out for a significant chunk of the season after back surgery during the summer. His list of similars is an unsurprising mix of role-playing G/F types. This group’s average peak was at age 26.7 — Webster is 28 and appears to have peaked at 26 (his first year in DC). The average peak PPA was 110 — barring a miraculous recovery, Webster’s was 114.

The guys on this list tended to decline a bit the following season, though not much. Assuming Webster gets healthy, it’s reasonable to expect him to play about as well as he did last season.

Just for those who might be interested, here are the “similars” for Trevor Ariza and Trevor Booker, the team’s significant free agent losses:

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Trevor Ariza	SF	2013-14	28	WAS	100	145	145
Nick Anderson	SG	1995-96	28	ORL	93	151	164
Bryon Russell	SF	1998-99	28	UTA	88	128	128
Bryon Russell	SF	1999-00	29	UTA	88	127	140
Hersey Hawkins	G/F	1995-96	29	SEA	88	148	173
Kerry Kittles	SF	2003-04	29	NJN	88	136	179
Hersey Hawkins	SG	1994-95	28	CHH	88	148	173
Brent Barry	SG	1999-00	28	SEA	87	132	183
Dan Majerle	SG	1992-93	27	PHO	87	133	135
Wesley Person	SG	1997-98	26	CLE	87	150	150
Rashard Lewis	PF	2007-08	28	ORL	87	138	165

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Trevor Booker	PF	2013-14	26	WAS	100	123	123
Gustavo Ayon	PF	2011-12	26	NOH	90	134	134
Luc Mbah a Moute	PF	2011-12	25	MIL	90	106	106
Chucky Brown	PF	1995-96	27	HOU	90	117	117
Kent Benson	C	1983-84	29	DET	89	119	137
Ben Poquette	PF	1981-82	26	UTA	89	100	106
Rasho Nesterovic	C	2006-07	30	TOR	89	120	140
Tyrone Corbin	SF	1988-89	26	PHO	89	110	126
Nenad Krstic	C	2009-10	26	OKC	89	107	118
Jason Thompson	PF	2011-12	25	SAC	89	130	130
Olden Polynice	C	1991-92	27	LAC	89	114	127

And finally, here’s the “All-Sims” team, so to speak. The method here is to take the guy from the top of each player’s list:

POS	Wizards	Similars
PG	John Wall	Kemba Walker
SG	Bradley Beal	Brandon Jennings
SF	Paul Pierce	Toni Kukoc
PF	Nenê	Danny Manning
C	Marcin Gortat	Bill Laimbeer
BENCH
PG	Andre Miller	Rod Strickland
SG	Martell Webster	Keith Bogans
SF	Otto Porter	Lance Stephenson
PF	Kris Humphries	Chris Wilcox
C	DeJuan Blair	Dennis Rodman
G/F	Glen Rice Jr.	Scott Padgett
G/F	Rasual Butler	Steve Kerr
C	Kevin Seraphin	Stanislav Medvedenko
THE DEPARTED
SF	Trevor Ariza	Nick Anderson
PF	Trevor Booker	Gustavo Ayon