With last night’s 118-92 thumping of the Boston Celtics, the Wizards clinched a playoff spot for the first since 2008. After a hearty “Woo hoo!” and a few moments of basking in the return to the best basketball tournament on the planet, I immediately started wondering — what are the Wizards chances of advancing?
The answer, of course, depends on the opponent. So, I broke out the odds estimator, and ran the numbers for the Eastern Conference teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today (April 3, 2014). I’ll update when the season ends.
SEED
TEAM
ODDS
1
MIA
19%
2
IND
21%
3
TOR
32%
4
CHI
42%
5
BRK
56%
6
WAS
7
CHA
66%
8
NYK
69%
The “odds” column shows what I estimate the likelihood that the Wizards will defeat that opponent in a seven-game series. So, Washington has a 19% chance of beating the Heat, 21% chance of toppling the Pacers, and so on down the list.
Their most likely first round opponent is either Toronto or Chicago. Between the two, the numbers suggest the Bulls are the more favorable match-up — the Wizards have a 42% chance of beating them in the first round, but only a 32% chance against the Raptors.
The Wizards do NOT want to slip to the seventh or eighth seed to face Miami or Indiana where their chances plummet.
What’s most likely to happen? Well, I ran my odds calculator on the remaining schedules for the Wizards, Raptors, Bulls, Nets and Hornets. Here’s a handy table showing their projected record in their remaining games, their projected final records, and their projected seeds:
REMAINING GAMES
FINAL RECORD
PROJECTED SEED
W
L
W
L
TOR
7
0
50
32
3
BRK
7
1
47
35
4
CHI
3
4
46
36
5
WAS
5
2
44
38
6
CHA
5
2
42
40
7
Chicago has the toughest remaining schedule, but everyone else gets a few games against Eastern Conference bottom feeders. Based on what’s left of the NBA season, it’s tough to see Washington climbing to fourth or fifth. They’d pretty much have to go 7-0 and hope Chicago and/or Brooklyn falter. And, the Wizards will need to close the season strong to avoid getting caught by Charlotte, which would mean a first round series against the Pacers.
Last week, I posted an estimate of the Wizards’ possible record in their remaining games, assuming Nenê misses the rest of the regular season. With a few more games in the books, Washington has survived the big man’s absence by playing better on offense and worse on defense — which was exactly what should have been anticipated based on how the season had gone prior to his injury.
The gap between how the Wizards performed with Nenê on the floor vs. when he’s been off has closed considerably. When I first posted these estimates, the numbers suggested Nenê’s absence could reduce the Wizards chances of winning by approximately 6%. In other words, if the Wizards had a 50% chance of winning with Nenê, their chances would be cut to roughly 44% with him on the sidelines.
Fast-forward four games (including games against Philadelphia and Utah — the Little Sisters of the Poor of the NBA), and the with/without Nenê differential is down to about 3.6%. There’s some game-to-game variation because of home court advantage, but the updated odds suggest that it would be reasonable to expect the Wizards to finish with 43-47 wins, even if Nenê misses the rest of the regular season.
As you’ll see in the tables below, there’s still uncertainty. The “no Nenê” estimate projects that 12 of the remaining 21 games are essentially coin flips — Wizards’ odds of winning falling between 45% and 55%. Using their full season numbers indicates 10 coin flip games. Still, 43-47 wins appears to be a realistic projection from this point in the season.
The Wizards made a deal at the trade deadline, swapping Eric Maynor, Jan Vesely and a second round pick in 2015 in a three-team trade that landed 37-year old Nuggets PG Andre Miller. The trade provides Washington with a much-needed reserve guard, and costs the team little in the long-term.
For their stated goal of making the playoffs, this is a good trade. Miller has declined some in his NBA dotage, but is still productive in his 15th season. Regular readers are likely familiar with my Player Production Average metric (PPA), which credits players for things that contribute to wins, debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace-neutral, accounts for defense and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor. In PPA, 100 = average and higher is better.
Miller’s PPA this season: 94. Last season it was a 96. The previous season: 84. This is a significant dropoff from the 140-range PPAs he posted in his early 30s, but it’s still more than adequate for a third guard. For comparison, Temple’s PPA this season: 20. Maynor’s: 8.
Acquiring Miller doesn’t affect Washington’s cap situation going forward. Vesely’s contract is up at the end of the season. Maynor had another year at $2.1 million, but only $2 million of Miller’s salary for next season is guaranteed. If the Wizards decide to bring him back, it would be the equivalent of signing a free agent PG for $2.525 million. The money they owed Maynor is a sunk cost they would have had to pay regardless.
And yet, I’m ambivalent about the trade. First, I don’t like giving up that second round pick. Some object based on the likelihood of it being a high second rounder. I really don’t care where it falls. In my analysis, second round picks are grossly undervalued by many teams, including the Wizards. They’re opportunities to take chances on guys with ability, but with a “wart” or two. They’re opportunities to obtain inexpensive talent to fill roles — or perhaps more. If it was me, I’d want lots of second round picks to have more shots at finding the next Gilbert Arenas or Carlos Boozer or Chase Budinger or Isaiah Thomas or Marc Gasol or Marcin Gortat or Nikola Pekovic or DeJuan Blair or DeAndre Jordan or Ersan Ilyasvoa or Amir Johnson or etc., etc., etc.
Remember, second rounders typically sign non-guaranteed contracts — if they get a contract at all. They can be sent to the D-League, seasoned overseas, or simply straight out released if they don’t work. Low-risk investment with the possibility of a significant reward. Even if only half your second rounders turn into rotation players, they’re still providing valuable production at bargain price. But I digress.
The second reason I’m ambivalent is that it highlights a long series of mistakes and mismanagement by Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards front office. It’s nice they could acquire Miller, but they shipped out Maynor — the free agent prize, who just six months ago was supposed to be their upgrade at backup PG. Now they’re paying a second round pick to dump him. Vesely, of course, was the sixth overall pick in the draft (chosen ahead of Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried), who has totaled almost as many turnovers plus fouls as he did rebounds or points.
Over the past few seasons, the Wizards have managed to turn near-max cap space, future 1st and 2nd round picks, a 6th overall pick, and a BAE into Gortat, Ariza and Miller. All of whom have expiring contracts.
But, Miller does improve the team’s bench. He should give Randy Wittman lineup options at the end of games, and his success sharing the backcourt with Ty Lawson in Denver bodes well for a partnership with Wall in DC. He’s an experience, efficient pro, who will help the Wizards make the playoffs, even if they still figure to be a first-round out. In that sense, the trade is fine. But it’s a shame the deal was even necessary.
Ask a Wizards fan to describe the team, and odds are he’d say the starters are pretty good, but the bench is awful. And he’d probably take a shot at Randy Wittman’s coaching — something Wittman would deserve for no other reason than the passion he’s instilling for two-point jump shots (aka The Worst Shots in the Game; or The Shots the Defense Wants You to Take).
However, an analysis of starting lineups and benches around the league suggests that these assumptions may not be accurate. The analysis used my overall player rating metric, called Player Production Average (PPA), weighted by minutes played. I ran an overall minutes-weighted PPA for each team’s most commonly used starting five, and then for each team’s bench.
PPA credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.
The league’s average starting lineup produced a PPA of 129. Washington’s starters ranks 14th overall with a 127. The average bench produced a PPA of 67. Washington’s bench ranks 15th with a 69.
I’m as surprised as you are.
I suspect that a big reason the Wizards bench rates in the middle is because of Wittman’s short seven-and-a-half man rotation. Most nights, Wittman uses what amounts to a two-man bench of Martell Webster and either Nenê or Booker (whichever didn’t start). Nenê was counted as a starter, by the way. Garrett Temple plays only long enough for John Wall to catch his breath. The rest of the squad gets spot minutes when they can.
What does this show? This is a thoroughly mediocre team — starters AND bench.
Here’s a table showing minutes-weighted PPA scores for the starters and bench of each NBA team, sorted by Starter PPA:
TEAM
STARTER PPA
BENCH PPA
Starter Rank
Bench Rank
MIA
173
74
1
11
LAC
166
70
2
14
SAS
165
101
3
1
MIN
158
51
4
26
OKC
156
76
5
8
POR
156
52
6
25
GSW
153
40
7
30
ATL
148
76
8
9
IND
145
56
9
23
HOU
145
67
10
17
DAL
140
83
11
5
NOP
132
77
12
7
DEN
128
72
13
12
WAS
127
69
14
15
CLE
126
42
15
29
PHO
126
85
16
3
TOR
121
65
17
19
DET
120
51
18
27
NYK
119
71
19
13
SAC
118
63
20
20
MEM
118
85
21
4
CHI
116
75
22
10
CHA
116
55
23
24
LAL
114
69
24
16
UTA
109
58
25
22
PHI
107
43
26
28
ORL
106
59
27
21
BRK
100
88
28
2
BOS
93
67
29
18
MIL
70
79
30
6
AVG.
129
67
A few observations:
Only Boston and Milwaukee have starting lineups that rate below the league average PPA (100). Incredibly, the Bucks bench rates as slightly more productive than the starters.
San Antonio has the league’s third best starting lineup AND the most productive bench.
Oklahoma City has the fifth best starting lineup, which is downright incredible because it includes 876 minutes of Kendrick Perkins (PPA: 24).
Minnesota is continuing its decades-long practice of not putting an adequate roster around a high-quality PF named Kevin. In years past, the “Kevin” was Garnett. The past few years, it’s been Love. The Timberwolves roll with the 4th best starters and the 5th worst bench.
Brooklyn is kind of a reverse image of Minnesota. The Nets’ starting lineup has been bad (minutes-weighted PPA of 100 — good for third worst), but they have the league’s 2nd most productive bench.
Moving on to the Wizards’ PPA update…no real surprises.
PLAYER
GMS
MPG
LW
PPA
Trevor Ariza
38
34.8
144
151
John Wall
43
37.0
147
143
Trevor Booker
34
21.2
137
136
Marcin Gortat
43
32.6
135
136
Nenê Hilario
36
29.6
102
104
Martell Webster
41
30.4
105
100
Bradley Beal
34
32.9
84
89
Jan Vesely
28
16.0
72
72
Chris Singleton
14
10.6
60
60
Glen Rice
11
9.9
18
21
Kevin Seraphin
31
9.9
20
17
Eric Maynor
22
9.5
13
13
Al Harrington
7
18.6
7
6
Otto Porter
21
9.8
3
4
Garrett Temple
41
11.5
6
3
Trevor Ariza had a good week while the rest of the team performed “about the same.” Webster’s production slipped for a fourth consecutive update — he’s now right at league average. If Washington is to break out of this rut of mediocrity, they need someone to significantly boost his production. The prime candidate would seem to be Bradley Beal, who had a terrific second half last season.
Get used to repeats of that old Wizards pattern — keeping the score tight (even holding a lead in the fourth quarter) only to lose in the end. The problem isn’t that Washington lacks a mystical “ability to close,” it’s that their bench can’t hold the leads its starters provide, and its starters wear down at the end of competitive games.
This is not the fault of Randy Wittman and the coaching staff. Most of the failing bench players are producing at levels consistent with career norms. Eric Maynor, a fan whipping boy so far this season, is playing worse than usual, but not abnormally so. He’s been unproductive throughout his career — that’s he’s even less productive should surprise no one. The same is true of Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton and Garrett Temple. They’ve established themselves as unproductive. There’s little reason beyond hope to imagine them becoming productive.
With the “make the playoffs or else” mandate, Wittman has little option but to play his key players heavy minutes and pray they don’t get hurt. And that’s exactly what’s happening. John Wall and Bradley Beal lead the league in minutes per game at PG and SG. Among SFs, Trevor Ariza ranks eighth and Martell Webster sits 15th. Marcin Gortat is second in minutes per game among centers. The fragile Nene plays the 12th most minutes per game for a PF.
If this was the playoffs, there’d be little reason for concern. But there are 62 games remaining in the regular season, and they’ve already sustained injuries to Ariza, Webster, Nene and Beal. Another injury could put the playoffs out of reach. That would be a shame (as would limping into the playoffs) because at full strength, it’s core rotation players could at least put a scare in a post-season opponent. They’ll need to get (and stay) healthy to do that, however.
For a further demonstration of Wittman’s lack of options, peruse the table below, which shows the (approximately) weekly update of Player Production Average (PPA). PPA is a player rating stat I developed. It credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.
PLAYER
GMS
MPG
LW
PPA
Trevor Ariza
15
36.1
146
172
John Wall
20
37.8
169
168
Marcin Gortat
20
34.6
152
150
Martell Webster
19
32.5
156
148
Nene Hilario
16
32.6
133
134
Trevor Booker
12
16.5
96
114
Bradley Beal
13
40.2
81
81
Jan Vesely
14
18.1
75
54
Chris Singleton
6
17.5
51
29
Eric Maynor
19
10.3
35
16
Al Harrington
7
18.6
6
7
Glen Rice
9
8.0
-10
4
Garrett Temple
18
10.1
-14
-23
Kevin Seraphin
15
7.9
-27
-32
Otto Porter
2
10.5
-70
Ariza is playing a lot like he’s in a contract year, which is to say — superbly. His production is All-Star level, though it would astonish me if he actually received the honor. But, with Lebron more a PF these days, it’s arguable that Ariza has been the East’s second best SF so far this season (behind Paul George).
Recovered from injuries last season, Gortat is producing at a good level again. Like Ariza, his timing is superb — he’s in a contract year as well.
Wall seems to have settled in at All-Star level production. PPA currently has him rated as the top PG in the East, and fifth most productive overall behind Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson and Mike Conley.
This week’s update shows Vesely’s production dropping off. Hopefully he can turn things around. Whether or not he does, the coaching staff would be wise to give more minutes to Booker, who continues to be an “about average” producer. That’s nothing to get excited about, but it makes him a solid reserve.
Finally, note that the Wizards have seven players who rate below replacement level so far this season. Collectively, they’ve played 823 minutes — nearly 17% of the team’s total. This is a direct result of the front office’s persistent failure to properly assess players, and their inability to address the team’s glaring need for depth. This misjudgment is costing the team wins now, and could cost them even more as the season wears on.
The Wizards just had their best week of the season, going 3-1 and seeing PG John Wall receive the NBA’s Player of the Week award. Their reward? Four games in five nights with travel between each of the games. Yikes!
The uptick in Wall’s production was as welcome as it was abrupt. His shooting had been atrocious, but became deadly, and he continued doing a first-rate job of finding teammates for open shots at the basket. His play was similar in quality to his transcendent March — when he performed like one of the game’s top five players.
In other good news for the team, Wall wasn’t the only player who improved. Martell Webster enjoyed his return to the starting lineup, and Marcin Gortat and Nene also seemed to settle into their roles. Bradley Beal boosted his production a bit as well, though the youngster still has a ways to go.
The upcoming week will be a challenge for the depth-starved Wizards. They have the makings for a solid top seven, but everything after that remains a major question mark.
Here’s the weekly Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a player rating stat I put together that credits players for things they do that contribute to winning and debits them for things that hurt the cause (each in regression-analyzed proper proportion). PPA includes defense, is pace-adjusted, and incorporates a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the strength of the opposing lineup. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
PLAYER
GAMES
MPG
LW
PPA
John Wall
13
37.8
111
158
Martell Webster
13
31.4
110
144
Marcin Gortat
13
33.5
116
139
Nene Hilario
11
32.5
118
127
Trevor Ariza
8
35.1
123
123
Trevor Booker
8
12.6
110
102
Bradley Beal
13
40.2
71
82
Jan Vesely
7
17.3
95
81
Eric Maynor
12
10.4
66
50
Al Harrington
7
18.6
6
7
Glen Rice
5
6.8
-5
-5
Garrett Temple
11
9.2
-36
-18
Kevin Seraphin
10
8.7
-33
-39
As Captain Obvious said, “The bench remains a major weakness.” Jan Vesely’s effectiveness declined as his playing time increased. Trevor Booker’s individual numbers are good, but the defense is a catastrophic failure thus far when he’s on the floor. Al Harrington was awful before he sat with knee trouble. Kevin Seraphin has been even worse than last season — and last season he was the league’s least productive center.
Guard depth is scary as well. Eric Maynor is drawing ire for his crummy play, but what he’s doing is exactly what fans should have expected from him. His PPA this season: 50. His career PPA before this season: 49. His peak PPA for a season was 57. This is his normal level of play. What’s scary: Temple has been worse.
For now, I don’t envy the options head coach Randy Wittman has. The team desperately needs at least two someones from the bench to step up production — one big and one guard. Unfortunately, the roster assembled by Ernie Grunfeld isn’t jammed with “good bets” on a guy or two who might suddenly start playing better.
I’ve been suggesting since offseason that the team’s best option for depth may be to use SF Trevor Ariza at PF (as a stretch four), especially if injured rookie Otto Porter can give them productive minutes at SF. Ariza is likely to be more productive as an S4 than Harrington has been, and he may provide the opposition with challenging match-ups at that spot.
No matter how I look at the various lineup permutations, the team’s rotation is skimpy — at best. With reasonable health for its rotation, the Wizards should be a playoff team. Lose anyone from the top seven or eight, and the playoffs are dicier, even in the East. And, I don’t think can sustain an extended absence from Wall, Nene or Gortat, however.
In an era characterized by rapid change, it’s good to be able to count on things. When it comes to losing, when it comes to ineptitude, when it comes to futility — Wizards fans have been able to count on the team and its management. Since Ernie Grunfeld took control of the team’s direction in 2003-04, the Wizards have the league’s third worst winning percentage. This season — Grunfeld’s 11th with the team — they’re tied for the league’s fourth worst winning percentage through nine games. Maybe owner Ted Leonsis deems that progress.
How typical is the bad start? Over the past 11 seasons, the Wizards’ record in their first nine games is 30-69. The average start by Washington teams built by Grunfeld 2.7-6.3. That’s a .303 winning percentage. Which is bad. As in, about a 25-win team over the course of an 82-game season.
It’s still early in the season, and I expect the team to improve and make a run at the playoffs, but as the numbers below demonstrate — the team is being hurt by lack of depth and by lack of production from the players who are supposed to be its stars. I’ll get to the “stars” in a moment, but the team’s lack of quality players on its bench was both foreseeable and fixable during the offseason.
Re-litigating the bungled offseason isn’t useful at this point except as a reminder — the roster is the product of front office decisions. Eric Maynor and Al Harrington (the team’s free agent acquisitions) are Wizards instead of DeJuan Blair. The team holds the rights to Tomas Satoransky instead of the production of Jae Crowder, Kyle O’Quinn or Orlando Johnson. They have Glen Rice rather than Nate Wolters.
And this isn’t even going back to 2011, which included gems like picking Jan Vesely AND Chris Singleton ahead of Kenneth Faried.
Trying to look at the bright side, the numbers suggest that the team is getting a bit better than average production from its starters. Bradley Beal is the lone exception — he’s had some good games sprinkled into some real clunkers (about what should be expected from a youngster in his second season).
The problem? The production from John Wall, Nene and Marcin Gortat is perilously close to average. The Wizards need significant production from all three, especially Wall, if they’re going to be a decent team this year. Last March, Wall played like a potential MVP candidate. So far this season, he’s playing like a run-of-the-mill starter.
So, to the first Player Production Average (PPA) update of the season. PPA is a player rating stat I put together that credits players for things they do that contribute to winning and debits them for things that hurt the cause (each in regression-analyzed proper proportion). PPA includes defense, is pace-adjusted, and incorporates a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the strength of the opposing lineup. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
PLAYER
GMS
MPG
PPA
Trevor Ariza
8
35.1
123
Nene Hilario
7
30.6
118
Marcin Gortat
9
33.8
116
John Wall
9
36.9
111
Trevor Booker
5
16.4
110
Martell Webster
9
27.6
110
Jan Vesely
3
15.3
95
Bradley Beal
9
40.1
71
Eric Maynor
8
11.9
66
Al Harrington
7
18.6
6
Glen Rice
3
10.0
-5
Kevin Seraphin
9
8.8
-33
Garrett Temple
7
4.7
-36
Back to bright side stuff for a moment — Trevor Ariza, Jan Vesely and Eric Maynor are each out-performing their pre-season projections and their level of play last season.
It’s tempting to brand Ariza’s play as the standard contract-year surge, except that it’s largely in line with his career norms except for a slight uptick in field goal attempts.
In scant playing time, Vesely has done just about everything the team could hope he’d provide. His offense is abysmal, but he does contribute offensive rebounds, which help. He’s also helping on the defensive glass. I anticipate his PPA to decline as he gets more playing time.
Maynor’s PPA is deceptively high. He had an outstanding 14 minutes against Miami — about 15% of his total minutes to date. The rest of his minutes have been bad. Keep in mind that back in September, Grunfeld had this to say about Maynor (h/t to Matt Kremnitzer’s superior Google search skills for the link):
We wanted to upgrade our backup point guard position and Eric [Maynor] has been with us now, three weeks in a row. He’s very solid, very steady. He brings a little poise to the game. He knows how to play. So we feel we’ve upgraded that position.
Basically, that the PPA table is saying is that when the Wizards top players are on the floor, they’re slightly better than average — something borne out by the on/off data. But there’s a big drop-off when they go to the bench. Big drop-offs to the bench aren’t atypical — lots of teams see major production drops when they use reserves. There are often very good reasons why guys are reserves. But, good teams have their starters outplay the opposing starters.
The Wizards starters hold their own, but the team falls apart when they use the bench. That’s not a recipe to reach the playoffs. It’s the recipe for 2-7. It’s the right mix for consistent futility.
And here’s a truly terrifying question for Wizards fans: How bad would this team be if they weren’t in “win now” mode?
If you thought last season’s horrific start by the Washington Wizards couldn’t be duplicated, think again. Through their first three games of the years, the Wizards have been even worse than they were last year.
Season
Ortg
Drtg
Diff
PytW82
2013-14
102.7
112.4
-9.7
18.1
2012-13
92.3
99.0
-6.7
22.5
Change
-10.4
13.4
-3.0
-4.4
Ortg = points scored per 100 possessions
Drtg = points allowed per 100 possessions
Diff = ortg – drtg (scoring/efficiency differential is a better measure of team strength than a team’s record)
PytW82 = “Diff” translated into projected wins if that differential was maintained over an 82-game schedule
As you can see from the table above, the Wizards have been 10.4 points per 100 possessions better offensively this season than last, BUT they’ve been 13.0 points per 100 possessions worse on defense. The net result: through three games, they’re -3.0 in efficiency differential — a change of 4.4 wins over the course of a full season.
Last season, the team was missing PG John Wall. This year, they’re missing both Nene and Emeka Okafor — two of the team’s more important defenders last season. Marcin Gortat, an adequate defender at best, has been slow to grasp the team’s defensive scheme.
Unfortunately, there probably aren’t any quick fixes to the defense. The team emphasized that end of the court during training camp, but it’s challenging to overcome the loss of quality defensive big men — they’re the linchpin of every good defense in the NBA.
Which, of course, leads to the obvious question: Why did the Wizards go through an offseason without addressing the critical need for depth behind its 30+ year old front line?
Which, of course, leads to another obvious question: Why does Ted Leonsis continue to let Ernie Grunfeld run his basketball team?
Will John Wall make The Leap to All-Star status this season?
NBA preseason doesn’t mean an awful lot. It’s perhaps a bit more important for a team like the Wizards — a bad team trying to get into the playoffs for the first time in awhile. But even then the information it provides isn’t all that…informative.
The regular season Wizards will get a significant boost from the preseason Wizards because of their move last Friday to acquire center Marcin Gortat. The veteran takes the spot vacated by the injured Emeka Okafor, who was sent to Phoenix (along with a first round pick).
I’ll get to my projection/prediction for the season in a moment, but first, a look at the preseason numbers. I’m not wasting time with the team-level stuff. The Wizards were terrible on offense and excellent on defense during the exhibition games. That’s theoretically a way to win games — a 68-65 win counts as much in the standings as one that’s 114-111. Still, being good on both ends would be preferable. If there’s any takeaway from the team-level preseason numbers it’s that the team was similar to the one they had last year (not surprising considering their few personnel changes), which was characterized by terrible offense and excellent defense.
Looking at the individuals, I’d conclude that most of the roster underwhelmed. Bradley Beal and Trevor Booker played well; Nene was okay, but not performing at the level he’s maintained throughout his career; and the rest…pretty bad. John Wall, the guy they’re building around, was awful. He shot badly from everywhere (.415 from two-point range; .118 from three-point range; just .727 from the free throw line), and committing 4.4 turnovers per 36 minutes.
Below is a table showing an “estimated” Player Production Average (PPA) for each player. I say “estimated” because PPA is based on league average season by season. That average is fairly consistent year to year, but there are fluctuations. Since it’s preseason, there isn’t enough data to calculate a true league “average” so I use an approximation of league average. Also, full PPA adjusts for pace, accounts for individual defense and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor — none of which I’m including in looking at the preseason numbers. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
Player
G
MPG
ePPA
PPA
Bradley Beal
7
30.3
146
92
Trevor Booker
6
20.5
144
96
Nene
5
22.2
118
119
Glen Rice
6
14.0
70
Jan Vesely
7
20.3
67
19
Trevor Ariza
7
23.4
52
108
Martell Webster
6
23.5
49
114
Al Harrington
5
16.6
43
81
Eric Maynor
6
21.0
38
32
Kevin Seraphin
7
25.9
27
22
Garrett Temple
5
15.6
25
60
John Wall
7
28.1
12
139
That last column is the player’s PPA in 2012-13. Except for Al Harrington, who missed most of last season with a staph infection.
Again, don’t read too much into the preseason numbers. The play of Beal and Booker are hopeful signs. Also good to see Jan Vesely doing something positive on the floor — he actually led the team in rebounding in preseason.
I’m not overly worried about Wall’s poor play, although it would have been nice to see him pick up where he left off at the end of last season.
If you’re thinking you’ll see better play from Eric Maynor once the season begins, stop it. At best the Wizards are likely get replacement level production from him.
Other potential cautions: Martell Webster and Kevin Seraphin were bad. Webster’s play is potentially worrisome because he hasn’t established himself to the point where his production level is a given. Last year, he had a terrific preseason, and it translated into a solid regular season. This year? Hard to say.
Seraphin’s preseason performance, is unfortunately matches up with most of the data on him. He was inefficient, turnover prone and rebounded like a SF.
Ariza’s preseason stats don’t mean a whole lot. He’s well-established and fairly consistent. He’ll provide the team with another season of stellar defense and meh offense, which will grade out to about average.
2013-14 Projection
Given the team’s offseason moves, it was clear that the team’s fortunes this season rested on the health of three players: Wall, Nene and Okafor. Now that they’ve traded for Gortat, their fortunes rest on the health of three players: Wall, Nene and Gortat. They don’t have quality depth behind any of these three.
While my projection relies on statistical data, there’s a fair amount of guesswork in divvying up minutes. The table below shows my estimates of games played, minutes played, and PPA. The estimates for games and minutes are a combination of player history, analysis of similar players in the NBA record, and logic. PPA estimates incorporate each player’s individual performance history, analysis of historical similars, and aging effects.
POS
Player
G
MPG
LS
2013-14
PG
John Wall
66
35.8
139
160
PG
Eric Maynor
75
13.0
32
34
G
Garrett Temple
60
10.9
60
45
SG
Glen Rice
42
11.4
75
SG
Bradley Beal
68
34.0
92
108
SF
Otto Porter
41
20.0
75
SF
Trevor Ariza
61
29.6
108
105
SF
Martell Webster
60
24.6
114
97
PF
Nene
62
29.1
119
146
PF
Chris Singleton
34
10.0
24
43
PF
Jan Veseley
60
10.0
19
51
PF
Al Harrington
66
18.0
81
78
PF
Trevor Booker
58
19.7
96
106
C
Marcin Gortat
74
29.0
125
146
C
Kevin Seraphin
69
18.2
22
46
LS = last season, except for Harrington.
My approach projects Wall making The Leap to All-Star level production, whether he makes the team or not. It also projects significant improvement from Beal, although it suggests he’s another year from making The Leap himself. I’m also expecting bounce-back years in per minute production from Nene and Gortat.
I’m expecting regression from Webster both in terms of overall production and in health.
I crunched the numbers on several different scenarios. In a best-case situation that assumes near perfect health, the Wizards could win 48 games. My worst case projection has them at 34 wins.
Final prediction: 43-39, and the Wizards get the 7th seed in the playoffs.
For those who are curious, here’s how the projections looked with the various possibilities between Okafor, Gortat and neither.
One of the refrains of the Okafor and a first round pick for Gortat trades is that the pick really won’t be worth all that much anyway because it doesn’t convey to the Suns unless it falls outside the top 10. I spent a few minutes tweeting a list of productive players selected outside the top 10 over the past few years.
Out of curiosity, I decided to see what kind of team I could construct using only players currently in the league who were drafted outside the top 10. The biggest problem: too many good players.
Point Guards
Tony Parker
Rajon Rondo
Ty Lawson
Jameer Nelson
Mo Williams
Jarrett Jack
Kyle Lowry
George Hill
Lou Williams
Nate Robinson
Isaiah Thomas
Gilbert Arenas got picked in the second round too, but I’m trying to assemble a “current” team. I’ll take three PGs — Parker, Rondo and Lawson.
Shooting Guard
Manu Ginobili
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Martin
Kyle Korver
Thabo Sefalosha
Jimmy Butler
Gordon Hayward
Tony Allen
I’ll take two — Ginobili and Kobe. Hmm, might be to old. Could replace either with Butler to have a developmental guy. Still, I’ll stick with the old guys.
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard
Andrei Kirilenko
Danny Green
Danny Granger
Chandler Parsons
Nicolas Batum
Jared Dudley
Trevor Ariza
Dorell Wright
DeMarre Carroll
Matt Barnes
Metta World Peace
Tayshaun Prince
These are just the guys I considered in an off-the-top-of-my-head kinda way. Lots of options, but I’ll pick two: Leonard and Green. Yeah, they’re both Spurs, but they both do the kinds of things that help teams win. Hmm, I wonder if there’s some coincidence between them being productive and the Spurs winning.
Power Forward
Thaddeus Young
Carl Landry
Ryan Anderson
Serge Ibaka
Kenneth Faried
David West
Paul Millsap
Ersan Ilyasova
Carlos Boozer
DeJuan Blair
Luis Scola
Nick Collison
Almost an embarrassment of riches. I’ll take three: Anderson, Faried and Ibaka. Yep, good arguments could be made for Young, West, Millsap and Ilysova, but I like the combination of high production and differing styles these three offer.
Center
Anderson Varejao
J.J. Hickson
Nikola Pekovic
Marc Gasol
Larry Sanders
Kosta Koufos
Al Jefferson
Robin Lopez
DeAndre Jordan
Nikola Vucevic
Marcin Gortat
Omer Asik
Javale McGee
Hmm…Gasol is an obvious pick. There’s room for one more center on the roster. Pekovic? Vucevic? Jordan? Gortat? Sanders? Asik? Geez, any of these guys would be pretty solid in the middle. I’ll take Pekovic as Gasol’s backup.
So, here’s the 12-man roster of players drafted outside the top 10:
Starters
PG — Tony Parker
SG — Kobe Bryant
SF — Kawhi Leonard
PF — Serge Ibaka
C — Marc Gasol
Reserves
PG — Rajon Rondo
PG — Ty Lawson
SG — Manu Ginobili
SF — Danny Green
PF — Ryan Anderson
PF — Kenneth Faried
C — Nikola Vucevic
Kinda interesting to see the number of Spurs on these lists, no?
The First Draft by Kevin Broom 