Wizards Update: Still Cause for Concern

The Wizards are 7-2 to start the season, which ought to be cause for celebration. And, judging by media reports and fan reaction, that’s mostly what’s happening. So what’s wrong with me?

I’m unconvinced that the good record is particularly meaningful. This is not to suggest the Wizards need to apologize for the competition they’ve faced. They don’t make the schedule, and it’s not their fault that the East is possibly weaker than it was last season — when it was aggressively bad. All Washington can do is keep beating whoever’s on the calendar, which is what they’ve been doing so far.

But…I’m still concerned because of the way they’ve been winning. In sports, the best teams typically have the highest scoring differentials. The Wizards this season stand 11th in scoring differential at +2.22, which doesn’t sound bad except that their opponents have a collective scoring differential of -2.52. In other words, the Wizards are winning by less than the rest of the league against their opponents. At least so far.

There’s a strong sentiment that’s something like: Hey, the Wizards are winning games they should win, which is real progress for this franchise. To an extent, I agree. But, what often happens to an average team (and the numbers are suggesting the Wizards are pretty average) is that over time, they’ll lose games they “shouldn’t.” And there are a TON of games left on the schedule.

Some have pointed out that Washington has played so far without Bradley Beal, which is true but perhaps not as meaningful as some think. Beal was pretty average last season, and didn’t project to make a huge leap this year (at least not in my preseason analysis). Much of what I anticipated he’d provide has been produced by Garrett Temple and Rasual Butler thus far.

Perhaps the best reason to think Washington might be able to win 48-50 games this season is the good fortune of playing in a historically weak conference. Just six Eastern Conference teams have a positive scoring differential so far, and the sixth (Brooklyn) is us by one point total so far this season. All that said, in Basketball-Reference’s simple rating system (which combines scoring margin with strength of schedule), the Wizards currently sit 16th overall and 6th in the East. If they want to make some noise this season, they need to play better.

Below is the Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Marcin Gortat	9	31.3	181	186
John Wall	9	35.6	185	180
Paul Pierce	9	27.4	140	138
Rasual Butler	5	19.2	60	131
Garrett Temple	9	31.1	121	112
Otto Porter	9	24.2	97	106
Nene Hilario	8	28.6	108	102
Kris Humphries	8	13.9	46	87
Andre Miller	9	12.9	72	69
Drew Gooden	6	19.5	42	40
Kevin Seraphin	8	14.5	38	13
DeJuan Blair	3	3.7	-41	-40
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-118

The numbers show Gortat and Wall playing outstanding basketball. Both are performing at an All-Star level. Wall could push his way into All-NBA consideration, if he continues. Gortat’s PPA is currently sixth among centers behind Tyson Chandler, Omer Asik, DeAndre Jordan, DeMarcus Cousins and Robin Lopez.

Biggest improvers this week were Butler and Humprhies. Largest drop was from Seraphin, whose field goal percentage dropped while his rebounding, turnovers and fouling remained poor.

Wizards Update: The Worries

The Washington Wizards are off to a 5-2 start, tied with Miami for first place in the NBA’s Southeast Division, and sitting on pretty good odds of getting to 7-2 before they face Dallas at Verizon Center. And yet…in classic Wizards’ follower fashion, I’m actually a little worried.

Yep, it’s good they’re winning. But, they should be winning given the quality of the opponents they’ve faced so far. No, this isn’t one of those “they would be X record if they’d faced teams A, B and C” critiques. I don’t believe a team (or its fans) should ever have to apologize for the schedule, which is something they don’t control.

What has me a little worried is how pedestrian the Wizards have looked so far this season. They’ve outscored their opponents by 1.57 points per game so far this season; the league has outscored their opponents by 1.99 points per game.

I’d be more willing to buy the injury excuse if they weren’t getting career-best play from Garrett Temple standing in for Bradley Beal and Martell Webster.

But, this is this “little worry” because we’re still in the annual performance of Small Sample Size Theater. A study by Kevin Pelton, then-writing for Basketball Prospectus, showed that team-level stats tend to stabilize around the 25th of the season. Other research has shown that per minute stats for individual players begin to have validity as quick as 150 minutes. More is better, though.

Still, the early indications are that, despite the good record early on, the Wizards are an average team again this season. They’ve been good defensively, but a bit below average on offense. The hope is that getting Beal and Webster will help bolster the team offensively when they can return from injury.

Here’s the first Player Production Average (PPA) update of 2014-15. PPA is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	PPA
John Wall	7	35.7	185
Marcin Gortat	7	32.7	181
Paul Pierce	7	28.0	140
Garrett Temple	7	33.7	121
Nene Hilario	6	29.2	108
Otto Porter	7	24.7	97
Andre Miller	7	12.9	72
Rasual Butler	3	14.3	60
Kris Humphries	6	9.8	46
Drew Gooden	6	19.5	42
Kevin Seraphin	6	13.8	38
DeJuan Blair	3	3.7	-41
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120

Wall and Gortat should jump out immediately (they are at the top of the chart). Both guys have produced at an All-NBA level in the first seven games. This could be The Leap from Wall that fans have been waiting for. If he keeps it up. Gortat has actually performed at a 180ish PPA for a full season (2011-12).

Pierce has been everything Washington could have hoped he’d be. Over the summer, I went hunting through the stats to find players who’d be most likely to replace what Trevor Ariza had provided. The top name on the list: Paul Pierce. His offense could be more efficient, but he’s producing at about the level Ariza did last season — and his defense has been outstanding.

Nenê appears to have picked up more or less where he did last season, and that’s not such a great thing for the Wizards. He’s still a good defender, but his offensive efficiency seems to be departed.

It’s good to see Porter hovering around average. He’s been an asset off the bench, and seems to be figuring out the NBA game. Porter hasn’t been helped much by his oldster bench mates Miller and Gooden, who have been awful defensively since arriving in Washington.

And check out Porter look-alike Garrett Temple, who has so far played at the level of an almost-average NBA starter. Major kudos to Temple for all the work he’s done on his jumper. It shows in his form — especially in the way he sets his feet for takeoff, freezes the follow-through, and plants the landing.

I know folks are going to wonder about Kevin Seraphin, who rates below replacement level yet again. Seraphin is shooting 63% from the floor, and has had a couple nice games. His offensive efficiency is above average. And yet…he continues to be plagued by the same problems he’s had since his rookie year. Specifically, his rebounding is sub-par, he’s turnover prone, and he fouls too much.

Also worth noting are Kris Humprhies and DeJuan Blair, who were acquired in the offseason to provide frontcourt depth. So far, they’ve been behind Seraphin on the depth chart, which is astonishing. Humphries at least has some excuse — he missed three weeks of preseason with a hand injury. Blair has apparently been healthy, but can’t get on the floor despite dreadful play from Seraphin.

At some point, I gotta believe they’ll end the Seraphin experiment and give playing time to Humphries and/or Blair. Based on what they’ve done on the court so far this season, it’s fair to say that neither has made a case for playing ahead of Seraphin. At least not yet.

Projection: Wizards Will Win 45 and Return to the Playoffs

Improvement from the Washington Wizards youngsters, and an infusion of frontcourt depth will be offset by missed time due to injuries and declines from the team’s older players to keep the team in the middle of the NBA pack for another year. However, the team could be a dangerous playoffs matchup if they’re able to enter the postseason healthy.

Below, I’m offering up projections done a couple different ways. The first is built on the similarity scores I’ve posted after the past week. This approach finds players in NBA history with similar production at a similar age, and then looks at what they did in subsequent seasons. Those findings are then applied to the Wizards roster and combined with a playing time estimate for each player.

For this estimate (and the other one, which I’ll get to later in this post), I’ve used my overall metric Player Production Average (PPA), which is calibrated to explain individual player contributions to winning and losing. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the court. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and 45 = replacement level.

Statistical Doppelganger Projection

POS	PLAYER	MIN	LAST SEASON PPA	PROJECTED PPA	PROJECTED kWins
PG	John Wall	2812	139	156	9.0
C	Marcin Gortat	2464	154	132	6.7
SG	Bradley Beal	2325	96	112	6.1
SF	Paul Pierce	1800	139	108	4.0
SF	Otto Porter	1800	15	85	3.2
PF	Kris Humprhies	1608	132	133	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	1450	97	97	2.9
PF	Nenê	1430	102	90	2.7
PG	Andre Miller	1165	86	65	1.6
G/F	Glen Rice Jr.	1029	20	78	1.2
F/C	Drew Gooden	1002	106	100	2.1
G/F	Martell Webster	1000	77	74	1.5
POS	TEAM	19885	107	110	45.4

MIN = projected TOTAL minutes for the upcoming season

Projected kWins = how many wins that player will contribute based on his projected PPA and projected total minutes.

Over the past few seasons, the Wizards’ front office has converted the team from being one of the league’s youngest to being one of the league’s oldest. Gortat, Nenê, Pierce, Gooden and Miller all figure to play prominent roles this season, and all are past 30. Well past 30 for Pierce and Miller.

Projections for Porter and Rice were difficult because they played so little last season. For both, I elected to throw out their rookie numbers and rely instead on projections based on the rookie seasons of the players they were most like from college. Using the rookie numbers would lower Porter’s projected PPA to 66 and Rice’s to 30. That would drop Washington’s projected win total 43.8.

Note that I didn’t include Kevin Seraphin, Garrett Temple or Rasual Butler in the above table. They’ll get some minutes along the way, but — barring several catastrophic injuries — none should see enough court time to have a major effect on the team’s fortunes. For those interested, this is what I project for the end-of-the-bench trio:

Garrett Temple: 33
Kevin Seraphin: 49
Rasual Butler: 55

I can hear the cockeyed optimists already: “Why do you just assume the old guys will get worse? What if they maintain for a year?” Quick answer (and one I’ve given before): athletes past 30 tend to two things — get hurt and get worse.

But, let’s say the “Ancients” are able to do this season what they did last year. In that event, Washington’s projected win total would climb to 48.5. Which would be hella fun.

On the other hand, there are scenarios where there are more injuries than expected, younger players don’t make anticipated improvements and/or older players decline more steeply. That gives a potential “bottom” of 40.7 wins.

Simple Rating System Projection

POS	PLAYER	MIN	LAST SEASON PPA	SRS PROJECTED PPA	PROJECTED kWins
PG	John Wall	2812	139	143	8.3
C	Marcin Gortat	2464	154	144	7.3
SG	Bradley Beal	2325	96	111	5.3
SF	Paul Pierce	1800	139	117	4.3
SF	Otto Porter	1800	15	63	2.3
PF	Kris Humphries	1608	132	133	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	1450	97	135	4.0
PF	Nene Hilario	1430	102	102	3.0
PG	Andre Miller	1165	86	108	2.6
G/F	Glen Rice	1029	20	82	1.7
F/C	Drew Gooden	1002	106	118	2.4
G/F	Martell Webster	1000	77	102	2.1
G/F	Rasual Butler	0	63	81	0.0
C	Kevin Seraphin	0	35	53	0.0
G	Garrett Temple	0	24	54	0.0
POS	TEAM	19885	107	117	47.9

The guys over at Basketball-Reference have up Simple Rating System projected stats for everyone who played in the NBA last season. Go here for an explanation. They don’t estimate minutes, which I can understand because it’s frigging hard to do.

The SRS approach is more optimistic than the one I used — at least at the bottom line. SRS generally predicts less of a decline for older players, but also not as much improvement from the younger ones. The SRS approach would suggest the Wizards will win 48 games this season — with a low end prediction of 43 and a high of 52.

Here’s a table comparing results from the two approaches:

POS	PLAYER	DOPP PPA	SRS PPA	DOPP kWINS	SRS kWINS
PG	John Wall	156	143	9.0	8.3
C	Marcin Gortat	132	144	6.7	7.3
SG	Bradley Beal	112	111	6.1	5.3
SF	Paul Pierce	108	117	4.0	4.3
SF	Otto Porter	85	63	3.2	2.3
PF	Kris Humprhies	133	133	4.4	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	97	135	2.9	4.0
PF	Nenê	90	102	2.7	3.0
PG	Andre Miller	65	108	1.6	2.6
G/F	Glen Rice Jr.	78	82	1.2	1.7
F/C	Drew Gooden	100	118	2.1	2.4
G/F	Martell Webster	74	102	1.5	2.1
G/F	Rasual Butler	55	81	0.0	0.0
C	Kevin Seraphin	49	53	0.0	0.0
G	Garrett Temple	33	54	0.0	0.0

DOPP PPA = projected PPA using the Statistical Doppelganger approach

SRS PPA = projected PPA using the Simple Rating System numbers published by Basketball-Reference

DOPP kWINS = projected individual wins contributed using the Statistical Doppelganger approach

SRS kWINS = projected individual wins contributed using the Simple Rating System numbers published by Basketball-Reference

Final Word

In the end, I’m using my own projection system. Last year, I projected the Wizards would win 43 — they won 44, albeit not exactly in ways that I expected. I’ve refined my projection system (I hope), although I’m hoping the team outperforms my prediction by a wide margin.

While still lacking an elite producer, the Wizards could be a tough out in the playoffs when rotations shorten and there’s more rest between games (especially in the first round). If they can get there healthy, of course.

I’m projecting the Wizards will win between 41 and 48 games this season. Final projection: 45 wins and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Wizards Doppelgangers: The Ancients

In the classic mode of a franchise finished with rebuilding, and ready to repeat their overwhelming success of the previous season, the Washington Wizards went out this offseason and got older. Yes, I’m sure they’d much prefer if we all thought of it as adding “veterans,” and that’s a fine way of looking at it, if you like.

Understand, I’m not against “veterans,” I’m just aware of the reality that athletes over 30 years old typically do two things: get hurt and get worse. Hopefully, Father Time will give the Wizards a reprieve until the summer of 2016 when Kevin Durant is a free agent.

It could happen.

Last week, I ran the Wizards young backcourt (John Wall and Bradley Beal) through my statistical doppelganger machine. Today, let’s look at the oldsters Washington has added in recent years: Nenê, Marcin Gortat, Paul Pierce, Andre Miller, Drew Gooden and Rasual Butler. (Please take a look back at that link above for notes about the method.)

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Nenê	PF	2013-14	31	WAS	100	102	176
Danny Manning	PF	1996-97	30	PHO	90	107	157
Clifford Robinson	PF	1997-98	31	PHO	90	131	143
Ruben Patterson	SF	2006-07	31	MIL	89	126	165
Mickey Johnson	PF	1983-84	31	GSW	88	83	145
Elton Brand	PF	2009-10	30	PHI	87	100	224
Christian Laettner	PF	1997-98	28	ATL	87	127	146
Jermaine O’Neal	C	2008-09	30	TOR/MIA	87	93	166
Matt Harpring	SF	2005-06	29	UTA	87	105	161
Frank Brickowski	C	1992-93	33	MIL	87	117	123
Antoine Carr	PF	1992-93	31	SAS	87	106	109

The good news is that these doppelgangers were pretty good players. Nenê had the second highest peak PPA behind Elton Brand’s 224. He also peaked about a year later than the average for this group. Frank Brickowski and Clifford Robinson each peaked past 30.

But, Nenê’s production has slipped the past couple years, as has his availability, and there isn’t much reason to think he’ll regain something close to that peak performance. His comps offer an ideal optimist vs. pessimist test: five of his ten most similar players performed better the following season, give performed worse.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Marcin Gortat	C	2013-14	29	WAS	100	154	186
Bill Laimbeer	C	1986-87	29	DET	93	154	175
Mike Gminski	C	1989-90	30	PHI	90	129	170
Bill Laimbeer	C	1988-89	31	DET	90	144	175
Dave Robisch	C	1979-80	30	CLE	90	132	132
P.J. Brown	PF	1998-99	29	MIA	89	127	150
Bill Laimbeer	C	1985-86	28	DET	89	156	175
Billy Paultz	C	1977-78	29	SAS	89	164	164
Tom Gugliotta	PF	1999-00	30	PHO	89	147	176
Maurice Lucas	PF	1981-82	29	NYK	89	149	149
Luis Scola	PF	2008-09	28	HOU	88	143	143

Obviously, Gortat isn’t really an “ancient.” He’s just 30 years old, he’s played relatively few minutes for a player his age, and he’s a fitness fanatic. But, eight of the ten most similar seasons to the one Gortat posted last year were followed by a less productive season.

If I throw out the two least similar seasons from Laimbeer, each of the 10 seasons most similar to Gortat last season were followed by a season that was less productive. Bright side here: it’s not like these comps became catastrophic failures. In general, they remained productive…just not quite as good.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Paul Pierce	SF	2013-14	36	BRK	100	131	173
Toni Kukoc	PF	2002-03	34	MIL	85	113	164
Vince Carter	SF	2012-13	36	DAL	84	107	200
Chris Mullin*	SF	1997-98	34	IND	84	156	182
Sam Perkins	PF	1996-97	35	SEA	84	119	147
Bob Lanier*	C	1983-84	35	MIL	83	152	138
Chris Mullin*	SF	1998-99	35	IND	83	168	182
Sam Perkins	PF	1994-95	33	SEA	83	132	147
Sam Perkins	PF	1995-96	34	SEA	82	114	147
Chucky Atkins	PG	2006-07	32	MEM	82	111	111
Terry Porter	PG	1998-99	35	MIA	82	114	211

Gotta say that Pierce’s set of doppelgangers may be the weirdest assemblage of players I’ve gotten from The Machine. I think the challenge here is that not very many players even last to age 36 (plus), so the pool is shallow. Note that Pierce’s most similar player has a Sim Score lower than the 10th most similar for Wall, Beal, Nenê and Gortat. In other words, the list above are kinda similar, but not super close.

Overall, this is a terrific group of players that tended to peak young (around age 25-26 — Pierce peaked at 24), but had long-lasting careers. As would be expected for a group of mid-30s athletes, most declined the following season. However, most remained decent players for another year or two.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Andre Miller	SG	2013-14	37	TOT	100	89	172
Rod Strickland	PG	2003-04	37	ORL/TOR	90	81	176
Terry Porter	SF	2001-02	38	SAS	88	87	211
Mark Jackson	PG	2002-03	37	UTA	86	66	181
Don Buse	PG	1983-84	33	KCK	86	96	148
Toni Kukoc	SF	2004-05	36	MIL	85	84	164
Muggsy Bogues	PG	1998-99	34	GSW	85	111	153
Maurice Cheeks	PG	1992-93	36	NJN	85	89	180
Rod Strickland	PG	2002-03	36	MIN	85	95	176
Gary Grant	PG	1997-98	32	POR	84	108	115
Rickey Green	PG	1991-92	37	BOS	84	57	157

Miller’s comps are an interesting assemblage of good-to-great players. I was surprised to see Muggsy Bogues make the list, primarily because I’d forgotten the 5-3 Bogues played so many seasons. Just about everyone on this list had a good career, but…as should be expected for a group this old — all 10 either declined or were out of the league completely the following season.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Drew Gooden	C	2013-14	32	WAS	100	106	169
Nazr Mohammed	C	2010-11	33	CHA/OKC	86	98	150
Chris Wilcox	PF	2010-11	28	DET	86	121	165
Antonio McDyess	PF	2006-07	32	DET	86	115	175
Joe Smith	PF	2005-06	30	MIL	85	89	143
Nazr Mohammed	C	2009-10	32	CHA	85	150	150
Antonio McDyess	PF	2005-06	31	DET	85	91	175
Jermaine O’Neal	C	2012-13	34	PHO	83	83	166
Chris Kaman	C	2012-13	30	DAL	83	101	130
Frank Brickowski	PF	1991-92	32	MIL	83	107	123
Chris Gatling	PF	1995-96	28	GSW	83	82	131

For Gooden, I wonder whether these comps are particularly meaningful given that he was signed late in the season and played in fairly few games. This group basically split between those who declined the following season and those who got better. The net effect is that the group average was “about the same.” So, it could be a case of lather-rinse-repeat with Gooden this season — albeit with more total minutes.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Rasual Butler	SG	2013-14	34	IND	100	63	89
Steve Kerr	PG	1999-00	34	SAS	92	59	124
Jalen Rose	SF	2006-07	34	PHO	89	72	117
Matt Bullard	PF	1998-99	31	HOU	87	49	98
Jaren Jackson	SG	2000-01	33	SAS	87	44	90
Anthony Bowie	SG	1997-98	34	NYK	86	72	97
Eric Piatkowski	SG	2004-05	34	CHI	86	79	121
Rashard Lewis	PF	2012-13	33	MIA	85	60	165
Steve Kerr	PG	2001-02	36	POR	85	64	124
Eric Piatkowski	SF	2007-08	37	PHO	84	34	121
Eric Piatkowski	SG	2005-06	35	CHI	84	16	121

Last up for today: the 15th man, Rasual Butler. You’ll notice this list is heavy on Eric Piatkowski, which isn’t exactly a great thing. Piatkowski hung around into his late 30s for some reason I don’t remember. Perhaps he had a contract that was being passed around. Perhaps he’s a really nice guy. There wasn’t much reason to keep him because of his on-court performance.

Otherwise, it’s mostly swingmen who peaked at the level of an average starter (Rashard Lewis excepted) and then declined. In limited minutes, Butler will probably play a little above replacement level this season. I’d have preferred this roster spot went to someone younger and with potential to improve.

Tomorrow: the rest of the roster.

Wizards 2014 Playoffs Wrap-Up

NBA Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls Play-Offs Game 4 — Trevor Ariza dominated in the playoffs despite low-blow karate chop from Mike Dunleavy.

Just in time for the start of training camp, here’s a look back at the Wizards run in the playoffs this year. For those with short memories, Washington beat the Bulls in round one, and lost to the Pacers in round two. It was a good couple weeks for a franchise that’s been among the league’s worst the past several years.

I’ve finally gotten around to crunching the data to produce the Player Production Average (PPA) numbers. PPA is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win, and debits them for things that don’t. It’s a per-minute stat that’s pace-neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and 45 = replacement level.

Like any stat extracted from a small sample size, there’s a grain of salt factor. For example, Bradley Beal led the team with 458 playoff minutes — the cut when I look at regular season numbers is usually 500 minutes. Only 21 players reached 500 or more playoff minutes this year. That said, here are the numbers:

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	RS PPA	PS PPA
Trevor Ariza	11	37.0	145	193
Marcin Gortat	11	34.7	154	148
Bradley Beal	11	41.6	96	139
John Wall	11	38.2	139	82
Trevor Booker	9	16.2	123	75
Nene Hilario	10	32.5	102	49
Drew Gooden	10	14.6	106	37
Martell Webster	11	17.7	77	35
Andre Miller	11	9.8	86	12
Al Harrington	7	8.4	24	-22
Garrett Temple	10	.9	24	-33
Otto Porter	3	2.0	15	-49
Kevin Seraphin	4	1.5	35	-274

RS PPA = regular season

PS PPA = post-season

The numbers reflect Ariza’s tremendous playoffs performance. A 193 in the regular season would be worthy of All-NBA selection in most years. Among playoff performers with at least 100 total minutes, it ranked third overall behind Lebron James (263) and Chris Paul (211).

Gortat’s production improved as the playoffs went on. His first round PPA was a shade below average, but his play against Indy in round two pulled his full playoffs rating into the vicinity of his regular season performance.

The team’s only other above-average playoffs producer was Beal, who was terrific in round one (152) and solid in round two. A promising post-season debut for a talented kid who will still be among the league’s youngest players when he starts his third season in a few weeks.

The post-season wasn’t so kind to Beal’s backcourt partner, John Wall. In the first round, Wall’s overall production wasn’t overwhelming, but he thoroughly outplayed Chicago’s guards. Indiana did a better job of forcing him out of comfortable plays, and Wall struggled.

Now-departed Trevor Booker was solid in the first round, but played little in the second round. Friend of the blog Ben Becker wondered if Washington might have won against the Pacers if they’d played Booker instead of Gooden and/or Harrington. And, that’s definitely possible. The games were close and hard-fought, and the Wizards got next to nothing from Gooden and less than nothing from Harrington. Booker was fifth on the team in per minute production during the post-season, but 10th in round two minutes.

Against the Pacers, the Wizards got good production from Gortat, and little else from the front-court. Using the trio of Nenê, Gooden and Harrington with so little court time for Booker may well have cost Washington a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Similarity scores coming soon.

Wizards Slouching Toward the Playoffs

The numbers in the table below are this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Marcin Gortat	77	32.9	150	153
Trevor Ariza	73	35.7	151	143
John Wall	78	36.6	141	138
Trevor Booker	68	21.4	115	119
Drew Gooden	20	18.6	127	114
Nene Hilario	50	29.9	101	100
Andre Miller	24	14.4	104	91
Bradley Beal	69	34.7	89	89
Martell Webster	74	28.1	82	80
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	68	68
Kevin Seraphin	50	11.4	35	37
Chris Singleton	24	10.4	34	32
Garrett Temple	71	8.9	25	25
Glen Rice	11	9.9	20	20
Otto Porter	33	8.2	13	19
Al Harrington	30	14.9	13	8
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8

Rough week for the Wizards, which is reflected in the individual numbers. On the positive side were Marcin Gorat, (who continues to have a good season), Trevor Booker (who many fans want removed from the rotation), and Otto Porter (who performed better, but still rates well below replacement level).

Even with a bad week, Trevor Ariza is having a career season. He gets a bit of a pass for the last few games — he’s been beset with the flu, and really shouldn’t have even been on the floor.

John Wall’s production fell for a third straight week. It’s been fashionable to celebrate Wall’s improvement and his ascendancy to All-Star status, but it’s worth noting that his 138 PPA this season is virtually identical to the 139 he posted last year.

Here’s a visualization of each player’s PPA through the season. Since this is basically a weekly rolling season average, the larger fluctuations at the beginning followed by a flatter line toward the end is to be expected. Note the fairly steady climb of Gortat’s PPA — he’s been playing better as the season has progressed. The production slip from Wall the past three weeks is also apparent.

Check out the steady production from Booker. Webster’s season-long decline is apparent in his graph.

Drew Gooden’s production has fallen steeply after a hot start. He may not be the godsend Wizards fans had hoped for. Andre Miller’s play has been up and down, but at least sorta trending up.

Wizards Weekly: Playoffs Clinched

Since the Wizards cemented a spot in this year’s playoffs, I’m going to focus more on the stellar play of Trevor Ariza and Marcin Gortat, and sorta gloss over the things that bug me a bit in this week’s numbers.

Some positives:

Al Harrington had a good enough week that he no longer rates as the league’s least productive power forward. That honor belongs to Brandon Davies.
Marcin Gortat’s PPA rose to 150 — the highest its been since December 11.
I missed it last week, but the Wizards have no one with a negative PPA. The team’s least productive player is Eric Maynor, but he’s not in the NBA after being released by Philadelphia.
Otto Porter scored nine points in five minutes, and added 10 points to his PPA.

Below is this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	70	35.7	151	151
Marcin Gortat	74	32.7	145	150
John Wall	75	36.6	144	141
Drew Gooden	17	18.9	148	127
Trevor Booker	65	21.0	116	115
Andre Miller	21	14.8	81	104
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	101	101
Bradley Beal	66	34.5	90	89
Martell Webster	71	28.2	81	82
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	68	68
Kevin Seraphin	49	11.5	36	35
Chris Singleton	23	10.7	40	34
Garrett Temple	69	9.1	22	25
Glen Rice	11	9.9	20	20
Al Harrington	28	15.5	1	13
Otto Porter	32	8.2	3	13
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8

Okay, I can’t help myself — now for the stuff that worries me:

Wall’s PPA is down to 141. That’s a good score, but his PPA last season was 139. And his offensive efficiency has slipped back below average.
Gooden’s PPA dropped sharply this week. His efficiency numbers are still insanely good — heck, all his numbers are, except for defense. There are way too many defensive breakdowns when he’s on the floor, and he continues to lose points in the defense portion of PPA.
Beal and Webster both rate solidly below average. This isn’t a surprise — Beal’s still a kid trying to figure out his spot in the league, and Webster is basically regressing to his mean this season. But, it does mean the Wizards aren’t getting a ton of production from their SG — and both rate as below average defenders.

The Briefest of Wizards Updates

In keeping with established Wizards traditions, Al Harrington is currently the NBA's least productive PF. — In keeping with established Wizards traditions, Al Harrington is currently the NBA’s least productive PF.

Don’t have a ton of time for fancy prose — not with friend of the blog Ben Becker inviting himself to be a guest blogger next week and filling my inbox with questions.

So…here’s this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	66	36.0	154	151
Drew Gooden	13	17.5	152	148
Marcin Gortat	70	32.9	147	145
John Wall	71	36.8	146	144
Trevor Booker	61	21.1	116	116
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	101
Bradley Beal	62	34.4	88	90
Andre Miller	17	14.3	75	81
Martell Webster	67	28.4	84	81
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	68
Chris Singleton	22	11.0	40	40
Kevin Seraphin	47	11.8	40	36
Garrett Temple	66	9.4	23	22
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	20
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	31	8.3	3	3
Al Harrington	24	15.0	-2	1

Unsurprisingly given the team’s record during their recent series against the Western Conference, the production of their top players was down a little across the board. Nothing major — just…the kind of thing to be expected when they face some tougher competition than they get in the East.

I don’t know how much Martell Webster’s back is bothering him, but his production is way down this season. Last season, he posted a career-best PPA of 114. This season, he’s back down at his career level. This is cause for concern.

Also, I’ve heard/seen folks in a variety of places refer to the Wizards as a “young team.” But….not so. They’re right at the league average in age, but their rotation at this point is older. I’ll probably look at this in greater detail next week, but consider this:

The team’s plan was “build through the draft,” but only three of their rotation players (Wall, Beal and Booker) were selected by the Wizards.
Those same three players are the team’s only rotation players younger than league average.
Once Nenê returns they’ll have more rotation guys age 30 or older (four) than they do under age 26 (three).

The team does have young players on the roster, but they’ve been decidedly unproductive this season — for much of their careers for most of them.

In keeping with Wizards tradition, Al Harrington currently rates as the NBA’s least productive PF (minimum 300 minutes). Last season, that title was held by Jan Vesely.

Wizards Update: The NCAA Tournament Edition

With the sporting world mostly focused on The High Holy Weekend of NCAA basketball, last night I took in the Wizards game. I enjoy college hoop…to a point…but, truth is that I’d rather watch a regular season NBA game than an NCAA tourney game.

Yes, I’m serious.

The tournament is fun with its single elimination format, but the level of play just isn’t there. Think about it like this: let’s say you want to hear a musical performance tonight. And let’s say you have a choice between say Beyonce (or fill the name of your favorite singer/band) or the best kid at your local college. Which one would you choose (assuming both are free)?

That said, I still love the NCAA tournament because of all the randomness. I estimated Duke as a roughly 75% favorite against Mercer, yet the Blue Devils are going home and Coach K was on the bench with that “holy crap I’m gonna get clobbered in the press for this” look on his face.

But, I’m way off topic.

The Wizards are en route to their first playoff berth in a few years, and their best season since they had guys like Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. All season, I’ve been bothered by the significant quality difference between the NBA’s conferences. Washington is a solid playoff team in the East, but would be on the outside looking in if they were in the West.

Here’s a quick look at that difference:

OPPONENT	WINS	LOSSES	W%	W82
vs. EAST	562	457	.553	45.3
vs. WEST	455	564	.448	36.7

Pretty straightforward. When teams play against an Eastern Conference opponent, they win 55% of the time. When they play against a Western Conference opponent, they win about 45% of the time. That W82 is wins per 82 games. A perfectly average team playing against Eastern Conference opponents could expect to win 45 games over an 82-game season. That same team would win roughly 37 against Western Conference opponents.

Only four teams this season have a better winning percentage against Western Conference opponents than they do against the East — the Clippers, Miami, Brooklyn and Cleveland.

The Wizards have the league’s fifth highest East vs. West differential. Against the East, their winning percentage is .610. Against the West, it’s .370. The teams with bigger differentials: Boston, New Orleans, Detroit and Portland. Against opponents in the East, Washington plays like a 50-win team. Against the West: 30. That’s significant. In other words, Washington is fortunate to be in the East this year.

By the way, I’m not saying the Wizards need to apologize for their schedule. All they can do is play who’s on the calendar for that day, and they don’t have control over opponent incompetence or organizational tanking decisions. Even if the league seeded the playoffs without regard to conference affiliation, Washington would make the post-season (as the 15 seed, but still).

Here’s this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	63	36.0	159	154
Drew Gooden	10	17.1	149	152
Marcin Gortat	67	32.9	149	147
John Wall	68	36.8	144	146
Trevor Booker	58	21.2	114	116
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	103
Bradley Beal	59	34.3	94	88
Martell Webster	64	28.6	90	84
Andre Miller	14	13.9	96	75
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	69
Chris Singleton	22	11.0	45	40
Kevin Seraphin	45	12.2	42	40
Garrett Temple	63	9.9	21	23
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	30	8.6	3	3
Al Harrington	21	14.7	-6	-2

Drew Gooden has been an excellent scrap heap pickup for the Wizards. He’s played just 171 minutes so far, but those minutes have been at a borderline All-Star level. Very bad things have been happening defensively when he’s in the game, which bears watching. Bad defense has been a rap on him throughout his career.

The Wizards saw production dips this week from Bradley Beal, Martell Webster and Andre Miller. Al Harrington continues to get minutes, and continues to play very badly. I’d hope that the Harrington experiment ends when Nenê returns.

If the big man comes back healthy and ready to play, head coach Randy Wittman will have a nine-man rotation of Wall and Miller at PG, Beal and Webster at SG, Ariza and Webster at SF, Nenê, Gooden and Booker at PF, and Gortat, Nenê and Gooden at C. That still probably won’t be enough to win a first round series, but it should be good enough to at least make things competitive and fun to watch.

Wizards Enjoy Soft Schedule Without Nenê

The Wizards have run their “without Nenê” record to 5-2 — a subject well-covered by the Washington Post’s Michael Lee this morning. Lee even broke out “points per 100 possessions,” which was nice to see. My only quibble with the story was that it didn’t mention Washington’s ultra-soft schedule, which may have ended up on the cutting room floor as editors tried to make the story fit into their print edition.

Here’s a quick look at the Wizards season — rolling averages of their offensive and defensive ratings (points scored/allowed per 100 possessions), as well as pace (possessions per 48 minutes).

2013-14 Wizards -- rtg & pace rolling — Red = defensive rating
Green = offensive rating
Dark blue = pace
Light blue = league average offensive rating
Orange = date of Nenê’s knee injury

That the Wizards have had a nice run without Nenê shouldn’t be much of a surprise. His overall play (see the PPA table below) has been mediocre, and while he’s helped the team on defense, he’s hurt them on offense. And, the Wizards have faced a series of cupcake opponents — four of their last seven have been in full tank mode. Their win against Toronto is the only one that could be considered a surprise. Even using the Nenê on/off numbers from the date he got hurt, the Wizards should have been expected to win at least four.

What have the Wizards done differently without their big man? They’ve been WAY more efficient on offense (115.3 points per 100 possessions over the last seven games vs. a season average of 105.7), but worse on defense (a defensive rating of 109.7 vs. 104.9 for the season).

The offense was largely expected. As noted previously, Washington has been more efficient without Nenê this season. The defense is worrisome. They got shredded by Orlando (28th ranked offense), Memphis (about average), and Milwaukee (27th on offense). The Heat also toasted them pretty good, but no shock — Miami boasts one of the league’s top three offensive units.

Also helping the Wizards get by without Nenê: the additions of Drew Gooden and Andre Miller. In still-tiny sample sizes for each, they’ve both been exactly what the team needed. Gooden has dominated opposing reserves — at least on the offensive end — and has provided much-needed rebounding and efficient scoring off the bench. Miller has been a steady veteran facilitator who somehow produces despite playing in “epic movie slow-motion” mode.

Miller’s production is sustainable — it’s about the same as what he was doing in Denver before he got sent home because of an argument with Nuggets coach Brian Shaw. Gooden’s production will almost certainly moderate, though he’s likely to still be useful the rest of the season. Gooden’s career PPA is 122, and he’s just two seasons removed from a 141. He’s never been this efficient on offense, though. And, his good play to this point is likely to earn him more minutes, which means he’ll end up facing more starters than he’s gone up against so far this season. Worth mentioning: his defense has long been a concern, and so far he grades out as well-below average in the defense part of PPA.

To the update. What is PPA? It stands for Player Production Average, which is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	58	35.9	159	159
Marcin Gortat	63	32.8	141	149
Drew Gooden	5	13.4	-146	149
John Wall	63	36.8	150	144
Trevor Booker	53	20.7	115	114
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	103
Andre Miller	9	13.7	52	96
Bradley Beal	54	33.9	93	94
Martell Webster	59	28.9	88	90
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	69
Chris Singleton	20	11.4	54	45
Kevin Seraphin	43	12.2	42	42
Garrett Temple	59	10.5	21	21
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	29	8.8	2	3
Al Harrington	16	15.3	-9	-6

Trevor Ariza continues to maintain a high level of play. In PPA, he ranks 4th in the league among SFs with at least 500 total minutes; third overall in total production. Marcin Gortat’s production ticked up this week, while John Wall’s went down.

I really think it’s time to shelve talk of Wall being a superstar. He’s very good and he has great potential, but there’s still a loooooooong ways to go for him to be considered an elite player.

Nice to see Martell Webster’s PPA go up slightly — the first time since December 17th that his PPA hasn’t dropped in one of my updates.

With or without Nenê, the week ahead could be a good one for the Wizards. My odds estimator suggests Washington should be favorites to win each of their next four games, although the matchups with Orlando and Sacramento fall into “coin flip” territory. Their odds of actually winning all four are only about 10%, but 3-1 is realistic.

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: