Wizards Update: Rolling in the East

It’s good to be a Wizards fan right now. The team is 9-3, and reasonable forecasts suggest they’re probably the second best team in their conference. That the conference is historically weak isn’t their fault. The front office put together a solid, veteran squad, and the rest of the conference backed up.

So far this season, the NBA’s collective record vs. Eastern Conference teams is 111-85. That’s a .566 winning percentage, which works out to about 46 wins over an 82-game schedule.

Against the Western Conference, the NBA’s collective record is 86-112, which is a .434 winning percentage. That means about 36 wins over an 82-game schedule.

In other words, we would expect an average team facing the East to win about 46 games…which is what Basketball-Reference forecasts for the Wizards. To highlight the relative power differential between conferences, Basketball Reference predicts the Wizards will finish the season as the second best team in the East, but with an SRS (a robust and “simple” rating system that combines a team’s scoring differential with that of its opponents) that would land it 11th in the West.

But, this is a “moment in time” snapshot. The picture changes a bit with every game played. And there are still a ton of games on the schedule.

Before I get to this week’s stat update, I wanted to address a recurring sentiment I’ve been hearing from an array of Wizards fans. Basically, it’s some variation on the theme that Kevin Seraphin is having a good season or a breakout game or a coming out party or developing into a valuable reserve.

He’s not. At least not so far.

In fact, he’s playing poorly, even compared to his previous performances, which ranked him as the league’s least productive center (per minute) two seasons ago, and the second least productive center last season.

On offense, he’s shooting a good percentage this season, but continues to be a poor passer and a turnover machine. He rates as having very little defensive impact,because of his anemic defensive rebounding and rampant fouling.

The measuring stick on Seraphin is so off that one fan (who later suggested it was the beer talking) tweeted a rave about Seraphin being a revelation on a night the big fella shot 2-7 from the floor.

Here’s Seraphin’s game-by-game PPA scores for this season:

GMS	MIN	PPA
1	7.7	-202
2	1.9	-1003
3	22.1	184
4	13.9	-84
5	18.1	64
6	19.5	139
7	16.7	-70
8	16.1	-36
9	10.6	-36
10	23.4	83
11	13.1	-29

In PPA, 100 = average and higher is better. In 11 games, Seraphin has managed an above-average production rate twice. He’s been a net negative seven times — six, if you prefer to throw out the two-minute stint in the second game of the season.

I like Seraphin, the person. But, he’s not a good NBA player. He hasn’t become one. He’s showing very few signs of developing into one. The Wizards need to find another option as their backup center.

Below is the Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is an overall rating stat I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win and debits them for things that hurt the cause. PPA is per-minute, pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	10-Nov	18-Nov	PPA
John Wall	12	35.7	185	180	180
Marcin Gortat	12	30.9	181	186	170
Paul Pierce	12	27.5	140	138	165
Bradley Beal	3	30.7			122
Rasual Butler	8	16.4	60	131	116
Otto Porter	11	24.4	97	106	101
Garrett Temple	12	26.8	121	112	96
Andre Miller	12	12.6	72	69	92
Kris Humphries	11	15.6	46	87	90
Nene Hilario	11	27.1	108	102	68
Drew Gooden	7	18.0	42	40	59
Kevin Seraphin	11	14.8	38	13	17
DeJuan Blair	3	3.7	-41	-40	-40
Glen Rice	5	8.6	-120	-117	-117

This week, I’ve added a column to show each of the previous PPA updates. I’ll keep doing that as long as there’s space.

Wall seems to be settling in at a very high performance level. It’s scary to think there’s still lots of room for improvement too. Seth Partnow at BBall Breakdown did a nice job of summarizing the problem with Wall’s shot selection. Improved decision-making would likely improve the PG’s individual efficiency, and give his team a much-needed boost.

I don’t see how the Wizards could have hoped for more from Pierce, who is performing at a high level in the early going this season.

Nenê suffered a plantar fascia injury to his right foot in the win over Milwaukee. While it’s not good to lose a starter, Nenê has been playing nothing like a starter. His defense shows up as a slight net positive, but doesn’t come close to offsetting his awful offensive efficiency.

Projection: Wizards Will Win 45 and Return to the Playoffs

Improvement from the Washington Wizards youngsters, and an infusion of frontcourt depth will be offset by missed time due to injuries and declines from the team’s older players to keep the team in the middle of the NBA pack for another year. However, the team could be a dangerous playoffs matchup if they’re able to enter the postseason healthy.

Below, I’m offering up projections done a couple different ways. The first is built on the similarity scores I’ve posted after the past week. This approach finds players in NBA history with similar production at a similar age, and then looks at what they did in subsequent seasons. Those findings are then applied to the Wizards roster and combined with a playing time estimate for each player.

For this estimate (and the other one, which I’ll get to later in this post), I’ve used my overall metric Player Production Average (PPA), which is calibrated to explain individual player contributions to winning and losing. PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the court. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and 45 = replacement level.

Statistical Doppelganger Projection

POS	PLAYER	MIN	LAST SEASON PPA	PROJECTED PPA	PROJECTED kWins
PG	John Wall	2812	139	156	9.0
C	Marcin Gortat	2464	154	132	6.7
SG	Bradley Beal	2325	96	112	6.1
SF	Paul Pierce	1800	139	108	4.0
SF	Otto Porter	1800	15	85	3.2
PF	Kris Humprhies	1608	132	133	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	1450	97	97	2.9
PF	Nenê	1430	102	90	2.7
PG	Andre Miller	1165	86	65	1.6
G/F	Glen Rice Jr.	1029	20	78	1.2
F/C	Drew Gooden	1002	106	100	2.1
G/F	Martell Webster	1000	77	74	1.5
POS	TEAM	19885	107	110	45.4

MIN = projected TOTAL minutes for the upcoming season

Projected kWins = how many wins that player will contribute based on his projected PPA and projected total minutes.

Over the past few seasons, the Wizards’ front office has converted the team from being one of the league’s youngest to being one of the league’s oldest. Gortat, Nenê, Pierce, Gooden and Miller all figure to play prominent roles this season, and all are past 30. Well past 30 for Pierce and Miller.

Projections for Porter and Rice were difficult because they played so little last season. For both, I elected to throw out their rookie numbers and rely instead on projections based on the rookie seasons of the players they were most like from college. Using the rookie numbers would lower Porter’s projected PPA to 66 and Rice’s to 30. That would drop Washington’s projected win total 43.8.

Note that I didn’t include Kevin Seraphin, Garrett Temple or Rasual Butler in the above table. They’ll get some minutes along the way, but — barring several catastrophic injuries — none should see enough court time to have a major effect on the team’s fortunes. For those interested, this is what I project for the end-of-the-bench trio:

Garrett Temple: 33
Kevin Seraphin: 49
Rasual Butler: 55

I can hear the cockeyed optimists already: “Why do you just assume the old guys will get worse? What if they maintain for a year?” Quick answer (and one I’ve given before): athletes past 30 tend to two things — get hurt and get worse.

But, let’s say the “Ancients” are able to do this season what they did last year. In that event, Washington’s projected win total would climb to 48.5. Which would be hella fun.

On the other hand, there are scenarios where there are more injuries than expected, younger players don’t make anticipated improvements and/or older players decline more steeply. That gives a potential “bottom” of 40.7 wins.

Simple Rating System Projection

POS	PLAYER	MIN	LAST SEASON PPA	SRS PROJECTED PPA	PROJECTED kWins
PG	John Wall	2812	139	143	8.3
C	Marcin Gortat	2464	154	144	7.3
SG	Bradley Beal	2325	96	111	5.3
SF	Paul Pierce	1800	139	117	4.3
SF	Otto Porter	1800	15	63	2.3
PF	Kris Humphries	1608	132	133	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	1450	97	135	4.0
PF	Nene Hilario	1430	102	102	3.0
PG	Andre Miller	1165	86	108	2.6
G/F	Glen Rice	1029	20	82	1.7
F/C	Drew Gooden	1002	106	118	2.4
G/F	Martell Webster	1000	77	102	2.1
G/F	Rasual Butler	0	63	81	0.0
C	Kevin Seraphin	0	35	53	0.0
G	Garrett Temple	0	24	54	0.0
POS	TEAM	19885	107	117	47.9

The guys over at Basketball-Reference have up Simple Rating System projected stats for everyone who played in the NBA last season. Go here for an explanation. They don’t estimate minutes, which I can understand because it’s frigging hard to do.

The SRS approach is more optimistic than the one I used — at least at the bottom line. SRS generally predicts less of a decline for older players, but also not as much improvement from the younger ones. The SRS approach would suggest the Wizards will win 48 games this season — with a low end prediction of 43 and a high of 52.

Here’s a table comparing results from the two approaches:

POS	PLAYER	DOPP PPA	SRS PPA	DOPP kWINS	SRS kWINS
PG	John Wall	156	143	9.0	8.3
C	Marcin Gortat	132	144	6.7	7.3
SG	Bradley Beal	112	111	6.1	5.3
SF	Paul Pierce	108	117	4.0	4.3
SF	Otto Porter	85	63	3.2	2.3
PF	Kris Humprhies	133	133	4.4	4.4
F/C	DeJuan Blair	97	135	2.9	4.0
PF	Nenê	90	102	2.7	3.0
PG	Andre Miller	65	108	1.6	2.6
G/F	Glen Rice Jr.	78	82	1.2	1.7
F/C	Drew Gooden	100	118	2.1	2.4
G/F	Martell Webster	74	102	1.5	2.1
G/F	Rasual Butler	55	81	0.0	0.0
C	Kevin Seraphin	49	53	0.0	0.0
G	Garrett Temple	33	54	0.0	0.0

DOPP PPA = projected PPA using the Statistical Doppelganger approach

SRS PPA = projected PPA using the Simple Rating System numbers published by Basketball-Reference

DOPP kWINS = projected individual wins contributed using the Statistical Doppelganger approach

SRS kWINS = projected individual wins contributed using the Simple Rating System numbers published by Basketball-Reference

Final Word

In the end, I’m using my own projection system. Last year, I projected the Wizards would win 43 — they won 44, albeit not exactly in ways that I expected. I’ve refined my projection system (I hope), although I’m hoping the team outperforms my prediction by a wide margin.

While still lacking an elite producer, the Wizards could be a tough out in the playoffs when rotations shorten and there’s more rest between games (especially in the first round). If they can get there healthy, of course.

I’m projecting the Wizards will win between 41 and 48 games this season. Final projection: 45 wins and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

A Quick Look At Something (Hopefully) Devoid of Meaning

The Wizards exhibition season has ended and they’re hopefully in the training rooms and rehabilitation gizmos trying to get healthy for their regular season opener against the Heat next Wednesday.

What does the preseason mean? Roland Beech, then proprietor of 82games.com (and now working for the Dallas Mavericks) ran some correlations a few years back. His findings suggest that preseason provides some indication of a team’s regular season fortunes, but that the previous season’s winning percentage remains a better barometer.

Beech’s numbers showed the preseason matters most to teams who stunk the previous year. The strongest correlations between preseason record and regular season record were between teams that won 30 or fewer games the previous year. Second strongest were for teams winning 40 to 49 games (hello, Wizards).

The Wizards, of course, are going to be on the “preseason doesn’t matter” side of this discussion considering they were 11th in the Eastern Conference in preseason efficiency differential and 29th in offensive efficiency. The league scored 101.8 points per 100 possessions in the preseason; the Wizards scored 95.0.

On the bright side, Washington boasted the league’s 8th best defensive rating.

Below are the preseason estimated Player Production Averages (PPA) for Wizards who played at least 50 minutes. PPA is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win, and debits them for things that don’t. It’s a per-minute stat that’s pace-neutral, (normally) accounts for defense, and (normally) includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and (normally) 45 = replacement level.

I use “normally” in a few spots because the data necessary to calculate a player’s defensive contributions and/or the degree of difficulty factor aren’t available in the preseason. Plus, I don’t know if there can be such a thing as “replacement level” in the preseason.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	ePPA
james,damion	5	12.6	188
silas,xavier	3	17.7	145
porter,otto	7	26.6	110
miller,andre	6	18.3	96
temple,garrett	7	19.7	91
hilario,nene	5	19.4	90
wall,john	6	25.8	82
gortat,marcin	7	27.4	71
pierce,paul	5	19.6	51
seraphin,kevin	7	21.9	52
rice,glen	4	22.3	46
butler,rasual	5	15.6	32
blair,dejuan	7	21.3	-3
beal,bradley	3	20.7	-38

Do NOT use these numbers to make bold predictions or sweeping pronouncements. These represent a tiny sample size — a sample in which many players are basically going through the motions at least some of the time — and are presented just as a general barometer for how players performed in the preseason.

Looking back at last year’s preseason numbers and see that Bradley Beal had an outstanding preseason, but wasn’t as good in the regular season. Meanwhile, Trevor Ariza and John Wall were bad in exhibition games, but good in real ones. Some guys were about the same in both — Jan Vesely, Al Harrington, Eric Maynor, Kevin Seraphin and Garrett Temple.

This year…most of the team’s rotation players were unproductive. Wall had an ePPA below 20 most of the preseason until he had a good performance against the Knicks. Seraphin may yet have that breakout season so many are hoping for, but ended his preseason in the same general territory where he’s spent most of his young career.

The team’s bright spot in the preseason was Otto Porter. He was a little above average — encouraging progress from a second year player who was mostly overwhelmed as a rookie.

Now…real games.

Wizards Doppelgangers: The Young Backcourt

At this point in NBA history, there aren’t many “original” players. Today’s players are like players who have come before — in production, if not look and style. “This guy reminds me of…” is a game scouts and fans play, often to the point of absurdity.

Following in the footsteps of basketball statistical analysts like MikeG and Kevin Pelton, I’ve created a Statistical Doppelganger machine of my own. The Machine compares players across 14 categories, including age, minutes, box score stats and my own overall rating metric Player Production Average (PPA). Then, it combines those differences and…voila…players with the smallest differences leap to the top of the list — similar production at similar age.

The Machine uses pace-adjusted per-minute stats, but does not consider attributes such as height, weight or position.

I’ll post results for Wizards players leading up to the season. These “most similar” lists ultimately work their way into my projection for the team’s record this season, which I’ll publish closer to the season opener.

First up through the Statistical Doppelganger Machine: PG John Wall.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
John Wall	PG	2013-14	23	WAS	100	139	139
Kemba Walker	PG	2012-13	22	CHA	89	131	131
Tony Parker	PG	2004-05	22	SAS	89	136	187
Steve Francis	PG	1999-00	22	HOU	89	133	172
Baron Davis	PG	2005-06	26	GSW	89	132	163
Kenny Anderson	PG	1993-94	23	NJN	89	129	161
Stephon Marbury	PG	1998-99	21	MIN	89	130	164
Isiah Thomas*	PG	1987-88	26	DET	88	130	181
Brandon Roy	SG	2007-08	23	POR	88	143	189
Robert Pack	PG	1995-96	26	WSB	88	143	143
Kenny Anderson	PG	1994-95	24	NJN	88	135	161

While Wall’s overall production the past two seasons was flat (he posted a PPA of 139 in both seasons), his statistical similars is a good group for the most part. The average peak PPA for this group is 163, with Brandon Roy and Tony Parker at the high end and Kemba Walker (who’s still extremely young himself) and Robert Pack at the low.

Note the presence of Hall of Fame PG Isiah Thomas, as well as several dynamic performers like Steve Francis, Baron Davis and Stephon Marbury. And keep in mind that while Marbury ended up as The Official Selfish Player of the NBA, he was a first-rate talent who was highly productive.

For those who might be worried by seeing the names of Kenny Anderson and Robert Pack, well…stop it. Anderson was a good player, but didn’t possess anything like Wall’s elite athleticism. Plus, Anderson’s performance drop-off wasn’t really until he’d reached his thirties — and more than 23,000 career minutes. Wall isn’t even halfway there yet.

Pack was a not bad player when he could stay healthy, which really didn’t happen once he became a starter. In his best season, he managed to appear in just 31 games. Wall played more games than that in his third season, when he missed the first 33 games with a stress injury in his knee. In his four-year career, Wall has played every possible game for the Wizards twice.

While I’m not giving away my projection for Wall (yet), these comps suggest good things. I expect Wall to improve this season, and to peak at an All-NBA level in the next few years.

Next up, Bradley Beal.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Bradley Beal	SG	2013-14	20	WAS	100	96	96
Brandon Jennings	PG	2010-11	21	MIL	90	108	140
Brandon Jennings	PG	2009-10	20	MIL	89	95	140
Mike Miller	SF	2001-02	21	ORL	89	106	140
O.J. Mayo	G	2008-09	21	MEM	89	81	96
Jason Richardson	SF	2002-03	22	GSW	88	91	157
Quentin Richardson	SG	2003-04	23	LAC	88	97	123
Michael Finley	SF	1996-97	23	DAL	88	94	138
Calbert Cheaney	SG	1994-95	23	WSB	88	88	88
Jamal Crawford	SG	2003-04	23	CHI	88	107	113
Dennis Scott	SF	1992-93	24	ORL	87	89	141

While I’m a big believe in Beal, I was not thrilled by this group of similars. Brandon Jennings? Twice? Really? OJ Mayo? Calbert Cheaney? Blech.

If you want to throw out one of those seasons from Jennings, be my guest. Next on the list was Klay Thompson last season, Eric Gordon, and then a season from Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf. None of whom significantly change the analysis.

There’s nothing particularly wrong with this group, except…none of them are Ray Allen or James Harden, or players of that caliber.

For the most part, though, this isn’t a particularly impressive group. The average peak PPA is 128, which is about the level of an average starter. Only Jason Richardson from this list peaked at a level that typically earns a spot on the All-Star team. What’s kinda interesting is that there are “repeaters” on Beal’s rookie and second year lists.

Players showing up as similar in both seasons include:

Mike Miller
Jason Richardson
Dennis Scott
Michael Finley.

Again, not a bad group…just not as strong a list as I’d have hoped. Still, Beal is young and seems to have the work ethic to improve. My gut says his ceiling is higher than what the numbers are saying…but that could just be the fan talking.

Next up: The Old Bigs — Marcin Gortat and Nenê.

Wizards 2014 Playoffs Wrap-Up

NBA Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls Play-Offs Game 4 — Trevor Ariza dominated in the playoffs despite low-blow karate chop from Mike Dunleavy.

Just in time for the start of training camp, here’s a look back at the Wizards run in the playoffs this year. For those with short memories, Washington beat the Bulls in round one, and lost to the Pacers in round two. It was a good couple weeks for a franchise that’s been among the league’s worst the past several years.

I’ve finally gotten around to crunching the data to produce the Player Production Average (PPA) numbers. PPA is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win, and debits them for things that don’t. It’s a per-minute stat that’s pace-neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better, and 45 = replacement level.

Like any stat extracted from a small sample size, there’s a grain of salt factor. For example, Bradley Beal led the team with 458 playoff minutes — the cut when I look at regular season numbers is usually 500 minutes. Only 21 players reached 500 or more playoff minutes this year. That said, here are the numbers:

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	RS PPA	PS PPA
Trevor Ariza	11	37.0	145	193
Marcin Gortat	11	34.7	154	148
Bradley Beal	11	41.6	96	139
John Wall	11	38.2	139	82
Trevor Booker	9	16.2	123	75
Nene Hilario	10	32.5	102	49
Drew Gooden	10	14.6	106	37
Martell Webster	11	17.7	77	35
Andre Miller	11	9.8	86	12
Al Harrington	7	8.4	24	-22
Garrett Temple	10	.9	24	-33
Otto Porter	3	2.0	15	-49
Kevin Seraphin	4	1.5	35	-274

RS PPA = regular season

PS PPA = post-season

The numbers reflect Ariza’s tremendous playoffs performance. A 193 in the regular season would be worthy of All-NBA selection in most years. Among playoff performers with at least 100 total minutes, it ranked third overall behind Lebron James (263) and Chris Paul (211).

Gortat’s production improved as the playoffs went on. His first round PPA was a shade below average, but his play against Indy in round two pulled his full playoffs rating into the vicinity of his regular season performance.

The team’s only other above-average playoffs producer was Beal, who was terrific in round one (152) and solid in round two. A promising post-season debut for a talented kid who will still be among the league’s youngest players when he starts his third season in a few weeks.

The post-season wasn’t so kind to Beal’s backcourt partner, John Wall. In the first round, Wall’s overall production wasn’t overwhelming, but he thoroughly outplayed Chicago’s guards. Indiana did a better job of forcing him out of comfortable plays, and Wall struggled.

Now-departed Trevor Booker was solid in the first round, but played little in the second round. Friend of the blog Ben Becker wondered if Washington might have won against the Pacers if they’d played Booker instead of Gooden and/or Harrington. And, that’s definitely possible. The games were close and hard-fought, and the Wizards got next to nothing from Gooden and less than nothing from Harrington. Booker was fifth on the team in per minute production during the post-season, but 10th in round two minutes.

Against the Pacers, the Wizards got good production from Gortat, and little else from the front-court. Using the trio of Nenê, Gooden and Harrington with so little court time for Booker may well have cost Washington a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Similarity scores coming soon.

Path Opening for Wizards to Make Deep Playoff Run

As enjoyable as the Wizards-Bulls series has been so far (for Wizards fans, at least), there’s a tangible feeling that Washington has drawn to an inside straight. (That’s a fancy poker way of saying they’ve gotten lucky.) Yes, I’m aware the Wizards have looked good in the playoffs — teams look good when they win.

I’m also aware that the “experts” at ESPN and TNT (and elsewhere) have declared this Washington as a near-perfect squad with “no weaknesses.” But, much (most?) of the commentary has been a veritable catalog of cognitive biases. Over the course of six months and 82 games, the Wizards were average. A perfectly average team playing against their schedule would be expected to win 43-44 games. They won 44. That’s not a team without weakness — it’s an average team.

In the playoffs, they’re beating the Bulls — a slightly better than average team overall this season, but also a team with a major flaw: one of the league’s worst offenses.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have continued their post-All-Star break swoon and are struggling to keep pace with the sub.500 Atlanta Hawks. The Wizards should be favored against either team in a second round matchup. Which would put Washington into the conference finals against (probably) the Miami Heat.

It’s the 2013-14 NBA Eastern Conference, where being meh is good enough because nearly everyone else is meh-er.

In many ways, the Wizards this season are a fascinating experiment in perception. On one hand, there’s a solidly average regular season and no top-end production. On the other hand, there’s a likely first-round win against the Bulls and a good chance they make a run to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Folks in the “they’re really not that good” camp can point to the historically weak conference and Indiana’s meltdown, which carved out the path. But…it’s not Washington’s fault their opponents suck. The only thing they can do is play their game and beat whoever’s put in front of them. Being average when others are bad might be a functional equivalent of being good.

For me, it’s clear that the Wizards are an average team that’s drawn a flawed opponent in the first round and has a very good chance of getting a flawed opponent in the second round as well. That said, being average this season and next is probably good enough to hang around in the playoffs for the next year or two before Washington’s older players decline and other teams rebuild sufficiently. Washington won’t be a realistic title contender (even if they make the Eastern Conference Finals), but it’ll be fun to see them playing in May.

In other words, have fun, but don’t go overboard revising conclusions drawn from six months and 82 games worth of data over a few weeks against a couple opponents. What would be cause for some revision? Beating the Heat and making it to the Finals.

At any rate, here are a couple looks at the Wizards-Bulls first round series through the first four games. First up, here’s Player Production Average. PPA is an overall evaluation stat I developed. It’s designed to credit players for things they do that help a team win and “debit” them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. It’s a pace-adjusted, per minute stat that accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.)

Player	TEAM	G	MPG	PPA
Taj Gibson	CHI	4	32.3	215
Trevor Ariza	WAS	4	39.5	212
Mike Dunleavy	CHI	4	32.3	168
Bradley Beal	WAS	4	40.8	161
Martell Webster	WAS	4	18.5	135
John Wall	WAS	4	38.5	121
Trevor Booker	WAS	4	24.5	99
Marcin Gortat	WAS	4	36.8	86
Joakim Noah	CHI	4	41.8	85
Carlos Boozer	CHI	4	23.3	76
Nene Hilario	WAS	3	34.7	74
Jimmy Butler	CHI	4	43.8	70
Andre Miller	WAS	4	10.8	63
D.J. Augustin	CHI	4	29.5	43
Kirk Hinrich	CHI	4	32.0	0
Kevin Seraphin	WAS	1	1.0	0
Drew Gooden	WAS	4	9.0	-33
Tony Snell	CHI	4	10.3	-59
Nazr Mohammed	CHI	2	2.5	-180
Al Harrington	WAS	3	2.3	-346
Garrett Temple	WAS	3	0.3	-1408

The top two producers have been Taj Gibson and Trevor Ariza. Mike Dunleavy’s high rating is largely a product of a single terrific game in a small sample size. Bradley Beal is having a good series. John Wall and Martell Webster have also been solid.

Folks have gotten excited about Nenê’s play, but the big man hasn’t really played all that well outside of game one.

Want to see why Chicago is struggling? Their only above average performers in these four games have been Gibson and Dunleavy. Noah, Boozer and Butler have been subpar. Augustin and Hinrich have been wretched — especially Hinrich who has given the Bulls 32.0 minutes per game of nothing.

Last, here’s a look at estimated wins added (call them eWins) for the series:

Player	TEAM	G	MPG	eWINS
Trevor Ariza	WAS	4	39.5	0.68
Taj Gibson	CHI	4	32.3	0.56
Bradley Beal	WAS	4	40.8	0.53
Mike Dunleavy	CHI	4	32.3	0.44
John Wall	WAS	4	38.5	0.38
Joakim Noah	CHI	4	41.8	0.29
Marcin Gortat	WAS	4	36.8	0.26
Jimmy Butler	CHI	4	43.8	0.25
Martell Webster	WAS	4	18.5	0.20
Trevor Booker	WAS	4	24.5	0.20
Nene Hilario	WAS	3	34.7	0.16
Carlos Boozer	CHI	4	23.3	0.14
D.J. Augustin	CHI	4	29.5	0.10
Andre Miller	WAS	4	10.8	0.05
Kirk Hinrich	CHI	4	32.0	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	WAS	1	1.0	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	CHI	2	2.5	-0.02
Drew Gooden	WAS	4	9.0	-0.02
Garrett Temple	WAS	3	0.3	-0.03
Tony Snell	CHI	4	10.3	-0.05
Al Harrington	WAS	3	2.3	-0.05

This eWins approach uses total production to estimate each player’s individual share of team wins. It works reasonably well over the full season. For the series, it has the Wizards with a 2.4 to 1.7 eWins lead, which is reflective of a couple very close games (Washington’s overtime win in game two, and Chicago’s narrow game three victory.)

Wizards Slouching Toward the Playoffs

The numbers in the table below are this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Marcin Gortat	77	32.9	150	153
Trevor Ariza	73	35.7	151	143
John Wall	78	36.6	141	138
Trevor Booker	68	21.4	115	119
Drew Gooden	20	18.6	127	114
Nene Hilario	50	29.9	101	100
Andre Miller	24	14.4	104	91
Bradley Beal	69	34.7	89	89
Martell Webster	74	28.1	82	80
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	68	68
Kevin Seraphin	50	11.4	35	37
Chris Singleton	24	10.4	34	32
Garrett Temple	71	8.9	25	25
Glen Rice	11	9.9	20	20
Otto Porter	33	8.2	13	19
Al Harrington	30	14.9	13	8
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8

Rough week for the Wizards, which is reflected in the individual numbers. On the positive side were Marcin Gorat, (who continues to have a good season), Trevor Booker (who many fans want removed from the rotation), and Otto Porter (who performed better, but still rates well below replacement level).

Even with a bad week, Trevor Ariza is having a career season. He gets a bit of a pass for the last few games — he’s been beset with the flu, and really shouldn’t have even been on the floor.

John Wall’s production fell for a third straight week. It’s been fashionable to celebrate Wall’s improvement and his ascendancy to All-Star status, but it’s worth noting that his 138 PPA this season is virtually identical to the 139 he posted last year.

Here’s a visualization of each player’s PPA through the season. Since this is basically a weekly rolling season average, the larger fluctuations at the beginning followed by a flatter line toward the end is to be expected. Note the fairly steady climb of Gortat’s PPA — he’s been playing better as the season has progressed. The production slip from Wall the past three weeks is also apparent.

Check out the steady production from Booker. Webster’s season-long decline is apparent in his graph.

Drew Gooden’s production has fallen steeply after a hot start. He may not be the godsend Wizards fans had hoped for. Andre Miller’s play has been up and down, but at least sorta trending up.

Wizards Weekly: Playoffs Clinched

Since the Wizards cemented a spot in this year’s playoffs, I’m going to focus more on the stellar play of Trevor Ariza and Marcin Gortat, and sorta gloss over the things that bug me a bit in this week’s numbers.

Some positives:

Al Harrington had a good enough week that he no longer rates as the league’s least productive power forward. That honor belongs to Brandon Davies.
Marcin Gortat’s PPA rose to 150 — the highest its been since December 11.
I missed it last week, but the Wizards have no one with a negative PPA. The team’s least productive player is Eric Maynor, but he’s not in the NBA after being released by Philadelphia.
Otto Porter scored nine points in five minutes, and added 10 points to his PPA.

Below is this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	70	35.7	151	151
Marcin Gortat	74	32.7	145	150
John Wall	75	36.6	144	141
Drew Gooden	17	18.9	148	127
Trevor Booker	65	21.0	116	115
Andre Miller	21	14.8	81	104
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	101	101
Bradley Beal	66	34.5	90	89
Martell Webster	71	28.2	81	82
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	68	68
Kevin Seraphin	49	11.5	36	35
Chris Singleton	23	10.7	40	34
Garrett Temple	69	9.1	22	25
Glen Rice	11	9.9	20	20
Al Harrington	28	15.5	1	13
Otto Porter	32	8.2	3	13
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8

Okay, I can’t help myself — now for the stuff that worries me:

Wall’s PPA is down to 141. That’s a good score, but his PPA last season was 139. And his offensive efficiency has slipped back below average.
Gooden’s PPA dropped sharply this week. His efficiency numbers are still insanely good — heck, all his numbers are, except for defense. There are way too many defensive breakdowns when he’s on the floor, and he continues to lose points in the defense portion of PPA.
Beal and Webster both rate solidly below average. This isn’t a surprise — Beal’s still a kid trying to figure out his spot in the league, and Webster is basically regressing to his mean this season. But, it does mean the Wizards aren’t getting a ton of production from their SG — and both rate as below average defenders.

The Briefest of Wizards Updates

In keeping with established Wizards traditions, Al Harrington is currently the NBA's least productive PF. — In keeping with established Wizards traditions, Al Harrington is currently the NBA’s least productive PF.

Don’t have a ton of time for fancy prose — not with friend of the blog Ben Becker inviting himself to be a guest blogger next week and filling my inbox with questions.

So…here’s this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	66	36.0	154	151
Drew Gooden	13	17.5	152	148
Marcin Gortat	70	32.9	147	145
John Wall	71	36.8	146	144
Trevor Booker	61	21.1	116	116
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	101
Bradley Beal	62	34.4	88	90
Andre Miller	17	14.3	75	81
Martell Webster	67	28.4	84	81
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	68
Chris Singleton	22	11.0	40	40
Kevin Seraphin	47	11.8	40	36
Garrett Temple	66	9.4	23	22
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	20
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	31	8.3	3	3
Al Harrington	24	15.0	-2	1

Unsurprisingly given the team’s record during their recent series against the Western Conference, the production of their top players was down a little across the board. Nothing major — just…the kind of thing to be expected when they face some tougher competition than they get in the East.

I don’t know how much Martell Webster’s back is bothering him, but his production is way down this season. Last season, he posted a career-best PPA of 114. This season, he’s back down at his career level. This is cause for concern.

Also, I’ve heard/seen folks in a variety of places refer to the Wizards as a “young team.” But….not so. They’re right at the league average in age, but their rotation at this point is older. I’ll probably look at this in greater detail next week, but consider this:

The team’s plan was “build through the draft,” but only three of their rotation players (Wall, Beal and Booker) were selected by the Wizards.
Those same three players are the team’s only rotation players younger than league average.
Once Nenê returns they’ll have more rotation guys age 30 or older (four) than they do under age 26 (three).

The team does have young players on the roster, but they’ve been decidedly unproductive this season — for much of their careers for most of them.

In keeping with Wizards tradition, Al Harrington currently rates as the NBA’s least productive PF (minimum 300 minutes). Last season, that title was held by Jan Vesely.

Wizards Update: The NCAA Tournament Edition

With the sporting world mostly focused on The High Holy Weekend of NCAA basketball, last night I took in the Wizards game. I enjoy college hoop…to a point…but, truth is that I’d rather watch a regular season NBA game than an NCAA tourney game.

Yes, I’m serious.

The tournament is fun with its single elimination format, but the level of play just isn’t there. Think about it like this: let’s say you want to hear a musical performance tonight. And let’s say you have a choice between say Beyonce (or fill the name of your favorite singer/band) or the best kid at your local college. Which one would you choose (assuming both are free)?

That said, I still love the NCAA tournament because of all the randomness. I estimated Duke as a roughly 75% favorite against Mercer, yet the Blue Devils are going home and Coach K was on the bench with that “holy crap I’m gonna get clobbered in the press for this” look on his face.

But, I’m way off topic.

The Wizards are en route to their first playoff berth in a few years, and their best season since they had guys like Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. All season, I’ve been bothered by the significant quality difference between the NBA’s conferences. Washington is a solid playoff team in the East, but would be on the outside looking in if they were in the West.

Here’s a quick look at that difference:

OPPONENT	WINS	LOSSES	W%	W82
vs. EAST	562	457	.553	45.3
vs. WEST	455	564	.448	36.7

Pretty straightforward. When teams play against an Eastern Conference opponent, they win 55% of the time. When they play against a Western Conference opponent, they win about 45% of the time. That W82 is wins per 82 games. A perfectly average team playing against Eastern Conference opponents could expect to win 45 games over an 82-game season. That same team would win roughly 37 against Western Conference opponents.

Only four teams this season have a better winning percentage against Western Conference opponents than they do against the East — the Clippers, Miami, Brooklyn and Cleveland.

The Wizards have the league’s fifth highest East vs. West differential. Against the East, their winning percentage is .610. Against the West, it’s .370. The teams with bigger differentials: Boston, New Orleans, Detroit and Portland. Against opponents in the East, Washington plays like a 50-win team. Against the West: 30. That’s significant. In other words, Washington is fortunate to be in the East this year.

By the way, I’m not saying the Wizards need to apologize for their schedule. All they can do is play who’s on the calendar for that day, and they don’t have control over opponent incompetence or organizational tanking decisions. Even if the league seeded the playoffs without regard to conference affiliation, Washington would make the post-season (as the 15 seed, but still).

Here’s this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	63	36.0	159	154
Drew Gooden	10	17.1	149	152
Marcin Gortat	67	32.9	149	147
John Wall	68	36.8	144	146
Trevor Booker	58	21.2	114	116
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	103
Bradley Beal	59	34.3	94	88
Martell Webster	64	28.6	90	84
Andre Miller	14	13.9	96	75
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	69
Chris Singleton	22	11.0	45	40
Kevin Seraphin	45	12.2	42	40
Garrett Temple	63	9.9	21	23
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	30	8.6	3	3
Al Harrington	21	14.7	-6	-2

Drew Gooden has been an excellent scrap heap pickup for the Wizards. He’s played just 171 minutes so far, but those minutes have been at a borderline All-Star level. Very bad things have been happening defensively when he’s in the game, which bears watching. Bad defense has been a rap on him throughout his career.

The Wizards saw production dips this week from Bradley Beal, Martell Webster and Andre Miller. Al Harrington continues to get minutes, and continues to play very badly. I’d hope that the Harrington experiment ends when Nenê returns.

If the big man comes back healthy and ready to play, head coach Randy Wittman will have a nine-man rotation of Wall and Miller at PG, Beal and Webster at SG, Ariza and Webster at SF, Nenê, Gooden and Booker at PF, and Gortat, Nenê and Gooden at C. That still probably won’t be enough to win a first round series, but it should be good enough to at least make things competitive and fun to watch.

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