Wizards Doppelgangers: Bump and Bruise

So far, I’ve used my Statistical Doppelganger Machine to find “most similar” players in NBA history for the following:

The young backcourt: John Wall and Bradley Beal,
The Ancients: Nenê, Marcin Gortat, Paul Pierce, Drew Gooden and Rasual Butler, and
The Enigmas: Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr., and Garrett Temple.

Next through the machine: Bump (Kris Humphries, DeJuan Blair and Kevin Seraphin), and Bruise (Martell Webster).

For those interested, I discuss the method a bit in the first post. Basically, the Machine looks for most similar production at a similar age.

First up: Humphries.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Kris Humphries	PF	2013-14	28	BOS	100	132	146
Chris Wilcox	PF	2010-11	28	DET	90	121	165
Lawrence Funderburke	PF	1998-99	28	SAC	89	120	120
Mark Strickland	F/C	1997-98	27	MIA	89	111	111
Tom Owens	PF/C	1977-78	28	POR	89	126	149
Taj Gibson	PF	2011-12	26	CHI	89	105	105
Antonio McDyess	PF	2006-07	32	DET	88	115	175
Marcus Camby	C	2002-03	28	DEN	88	131	212
Will Perdue	C	1994-95	29	CHI	88	140	140
Loy Vaught	PF	1992-93	24	LAC	87	99	131
Clarence Weatherspoon	PF	1999-00	29	MIA	87	108	168

What Humphries did last season generates a nice list of solidly productive role playing bigs, which is about what I’d have expected. The group’s average peak performance is 147 — for Humprhies it’s 146. Average peak age for this group was 26.5 — Humprhies appears to have peaked at 25. I say “appears” because Humphries, of course, is still going.

In the seasons after those shown here, the similars were a mixed bag of ups and downs. As a group, they were steady. This suggests that Humphries may be in the “plateau” portion of his career production arc. (That arc typically follows a trendline of improving production early in a player’s career to a peak between ages 25 and 28, a plateau until the early 30s, and then decline.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
DeJuan Blair	PF	2013-14	24	DAL	100	97	145
Dennis Rodman*	F	1986-87	25	DET	90	84	180
Craig Smith	PF	2006-07	23	MIN	90	87	91
Matt Geiger	F/C	1993-94	24	MIA	89	87	153
Gary Trent	PF	2002-03	28	MIN	88	103	133
Channing Frye	PF	2007-08	24	POR	88	77	118
Jerome Whitehead	C	1982-83	26	SDC	88	104	128
Alan Henderson	PF	1996-97	24	ATL	88	67	116
Robert Traylor	C	2003-04	26	NOH	88	79	143
Greg Ballard	SF	1978-79	24	WSB	88	114	157
Ivan Johnson	PF	2011-12	27	ATL	88	73	83

I very much like seeing Dennis Rodman’s name on the list, although this is the pre-RODMAN Rodman. This was actually Rodman’s rookie season, and while he rebounded well, he wasn’t yet the outlandish board man he’d later become. This Rodman was even willing to shoot the ball now and then — he used roughly 19% of his team’s possessions while on the floor (average is 20%).

The rest is kind of an odd group at first glance. There are physical, burly types like Smith, Trent, Traylor and Johnson, and more finesse types Frye, Henderson and Geiger.

You may be wondering what Frye is doing on this list at all. But, this isn’t the stretch-4 Frye, this is the PF/C type in his second to last year in Portland. He had just 10 three-point attempts that season with the Blazers. Two years later, he’d hoist 392 for the Suns.

The average peak PPA for this group was 132 at age 25.6. Blair’s best season was a 145 as a rookie, but he’s just 25 years old this season. This group of similars was a mix of improvement and decline in the year following the one shown.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Kevin Seraphin	C	2013-14	24	WAS	100	35	95
Stanislav Medvedenko	PF	2002-03	23	LAL	90	17	84
Mark Alarie	PF	1987-88	24	WSB	88	42	77
Keith Lee	F/C	1986-87	24	CLE	87	55	77
Bill Martin	SF	1985-86	23	IND	86	34	34
Greg Foster	F/C	1990-91	22	WSB	86	36	42
Malik Allen	PF	2006-07	28	CHI	86	35	76
Channing Frye	PF	2008-09	25	POR	86	27	118
Melvin Turpin	C	1986-87	26	CLE	86	50	130
Josh Powell	PF	2008-09	26	LAL	86	29	61
Brad Lohaus	F/C	1987-88	23	BOS	85	49	93

I know there’s a lot of hope that Seraphin may finally have a breakout season. Even before looking at his comps, I’d have recommended betting against that “breakout.” This list only solidifies that recommendation.

To me, Seraphin is a reflection of how brutal the NBA can be. He’s one of the better basketball players in the world — top 600, easy. Maybe top 500. But, he hasn’t been good enough to be a bona fide NBA player.

No matter what slice of time I examine, I keep finding the same problems with Seraphin’s play: too many turnovers, too few rebounds, rampant fouling. That was true, even during his “good” stretch a few years ago when he performed at about the level of an average NBA player. Since then, he’s been awful. The league’s least productive center two years ago. The second least productive center last season.

This group of similars can be characterized as peaking early (age 24.8) and low (average peak PPA: 81). The best of the group was Mel Turpin. That Frye season was his last in Portland, and the worst of his career.

The good news is that most of these players improved the season following the one that appears on the list. The bad news: the average improvement wasn’t much.

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Martell Webster	SF	2013-14	27	WAS	100	77	114
Keith Bogans	SG	2007-08	27	ORL	95	81	89
Morris Peterson	SF	2003-04	26	TOR	90	86	111
Richard Jefferson	SF	2011-12	31	SAS/GSW	90	93	162
Rasual Butler	G/F	2006-07	27	NOK	90	61	89
Pat Garrity	SF	2002-03	26	ORL	89	79	89
Matt Carroll	SF	2007-08	27	CHA	89	59	105
Brandon Rush	SG	2010-11	25	IND	89	66	106
Quentin Richardson	SG	2008-09	28	NYK	89	82	123
Gordan Giricek	SF	2003-04	26	ORL	88	71	99
Ryan Gomes	SF	2009-10	27	MIN	88	83	119

Webster will be out for a significant chunk of the season after back surgery during the summer. His list of similars is an unsurprising mix of role-playing G/F types. This group’s average peak was at age 26.7 — Webster is 28 and appears to have peaked at 26 (his first year in DC). The average peak PPA was 110 — barring a miraculous recovery, Webster’s was 114.

The guys on this list tended to decline a bit the following season, though not much. Assuming Webster gets healthy, it’s reasonable to expect him to play about as well as he did last season.

Just for those who might be interested, here are the “similars” for Trevor Ariza and Trevor Booker, the team’s significant free agent losses:

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Trevor Ariza	SF	2013-14	28	WAS	100	145	145
Nick Anderson	SG	1995-96	28	ORL	93	151	164
Bryon Russell	SF	1998-99	28	UTA	88	128	128
Bryon Russell	SF	1999-00	29	UTA	88	127	140
Hersey Hawkins	G/F	1995-96	29	SEA	88	148	173
Kerry Kittles	SF	2003-04	29	NJN	88	136	179
Hersey Hawkins	SG	1994-95	28	CHH	88	148	173
Brent Barry	SG	1999-00	28	SEA	87	132	183
Dan Majerle	SG	1992-93	27	PHO	87	133	135
Wesley Person	SG	1997-98	26	CLE	87	150	150
Rashard Lewis	PF	2007-08	28	ORL	87	138	165

PLAYER	POS	SEASON	AGE	TEAM	SIM SCORE	PPA SEASON	PPA PEAK
Trevor Booker	PF	2013-14	26	WAS	100	123	123
Gustavo Ayon	PF	2011-12	26	NOH	90	134	134
Luc Mbah a Moute	PF	2011-12	25	MIL	90	106	106
Chucky Brown	PF	1995-96	27	HOU	90	117	117
Kent Benson	C	1983-84	29	DET	89	119	137
Ben Poquette	PF	1981-82	26	UTA	89	100	106
Rasho Nesterovic	C	2006-07	30	TOR	89	120	140
Tyrone Corbin	SF	1988-89	26	PHO	89	110	126
Nenad Krstic	C	2009-10	26	OKC	89	107	118
Jason Thompson	PF	2011-12	25	SAC	89	130	130
Olden Polynice	C	1991-92	27	LAC	89	114	127

And finally, here’s the “All-Sims” team, so to speak. The method here is to take the guy from the top of each player’s list:

POS	Wizards	Similars
PG	John Wall	Kemba Walker
SG	Bradley Beal	Brandon Jennings
SF	Paul Pierce	Toni Kukoc
PF	Nenê	Danny Manning
C	Marcin Gortat	Bill Laimbeer
BENCH
PG	Andre Miller	Rod Strickland
SG	Martell Webster	Keith Bogans
SF	Otto Porter	Lance Stephenson
PF	Kris Humphries	Chris Wilcox
C	DeJuan Blair	Dennis Rodman
G/F	Glen Rice Jr.	Scott Padgett
G/F	Rasual Butler	Steve Kerr
C	Kevin Seraphin	Stanislav Medvedenko
THE DEPARTED
SF	Trevor Ariza	Nick Anderson
PF	Trevor Booker	Gustavo Ayon

Wizards Slouching Toward the Playoffs

The numbers in the table below are this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Marcin Gortat	77	32.9	150	153
Trevor Ariza	73	35.7	151	143
John Wall	78	36.6	141	138
Trevor Booker	68	21.4	115	119
Drew Gooden	20	18.6	127	114
Nene Hilario	50	29.9	101	100
Andre Miller	24	14.4	104	91
Bradley Beal	69	34.7	89	89
Martell Webster	74	28.1	82	80
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	68	68
Kevin Seraphin	50	11.4	35	37
Chris Singleton	24	10.4	34	32
Garrett Temple	71	8.9	25	25
Glen Rice	11	9.9	20	20
Otto Porter	33	8.2	13	19
Al Harrington	30	14.9	13	8
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8

Rough week for the Wizards, which is reflected in the individual numbers. On the positive side were Marcin Gorat, (who continues to have a good season), Trevor Booker (who many fans want removed from the rotation), and Otto Porter (who performed better, but still rates well below replacement level).

Even with a bad week, Trevor Ariza is having a career season. He gets a bit of a pass for the last few games — he’s been beset with the flu, and really shouldn’t have even been on the floor.

John Wall’s production fell for a third straight week. It’s been fashionable to celebrate Wall’s improvement and his ascendancy to All-Star status, but it’s worth noting that his 138 PPA this season is virtually identical to the 139 he posted last year.

Here’s a visualization of each player’s PPA through the season. Since this is basically a weekly rolling season average, the larger fluctuations at the beginning followed by a flatter line toward the end is to be expected. Note the fairly steady climb of Gortat’s PPA — he’s been playing better as the season has progressed. The production slip from Wall the past three weeks is also apparent.

Check out the steady production from Booker. Webster’s season-long decline is apparent in his graph.

Drew Gooden’s production has fallen steeply after a hot start. He may not be the godsend Wizards fans had hoped for. Andre Miller’s play has been up and down, but at least sorta trending up.

Wizards Weekly: Playoffs Clinched

Since the Wizards cemented a spot in this year’s playoffs, I’m going to focus more on the stellar play of Trevor Ariza and Marcin Gortat, and sorta gloss over the things that bug me a bit in this week’s numbers.

Some positives:

Al Harrington had a good enough week that he no longer rates as the league’s least productive power forward. That honor belongs to Brandon Davies.
Marcin Gortat’s PPA rose to 150 — the highest its been since December 11.
I missed it last week, but the Wizards have no one with a negative PPA. The team’s least productive player is Eric Maynor, but he’s not in the NBA after being released by Philadelphia.
Otto Porter scored nine points in five minutes, and added 10 points to his PPA.

Below is this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	70	35.7	151	151
Marcin Gortat	74	32.7	145	150
John Wall	75	36.6	144	141
Drew Gooden	17	18.9	148	127
Trevor Booker	65	21.0	116	115
Andre Miller	21	14.8	81	104
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	101	101
Bradley Beal	66	34.5	90	89
Martell Webster	71	28.2	81	82
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	68	68
Kevin Seraphin	49	11.5	36	35
Chris Singleton	23	10.7	40	34
Garrett Temple	69	9.1	22	25
Glen Rice	11	9.9	20	20
Al Harrington	28	15.5	1	13
Otto Porter	32	8.2	3	13
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8

Okay, I can’t help myself — now for the stuff that worries me:

Wall’s PPA is down to 141. That’s a good score, but his PPA last season was 139. And his offensive efficiency has slipped back below average.
Gooden’s PPA dropped sharply this week. His efficiency numbers are still insanely good — heck, all his numbers are, except for defense. There are way too many defensive breakdowns when he’s on the floor, and he continues to lose points in the defense portion of PPA.
Beal and Webster both rate solidly below average. This isn’t a surprise — Beal’s still a kid trying to figure out his spot in the league, and Webster is basically regressing to his mean this season. But, it does mean the Wizards aren’t getting a ton of production from their SG — and both rate as below average defenders.

The Briefest of Wizards Updates

In keeping with established Wizards traditions, Al Harrington is currently the NBA's least productive PF. — In keeping with established Wizards traditions, Al Harrington is currently the NBA’s least productive PF.

Don’t have a ton of time for fancy prose — not with friend of the blog Ben Becker inviting himself to be a guest blogger next week and filling my inbox with questions.

So…here’s this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	66	36.0	154	151
Drew Gooden	13	17.5	152	148
Marcin Gortat	70	32.9	147	145
John Wall	71	36.8	146	144
Trevor Booker	61	21.1	116	116
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	101
Bradley Beal	62	34.4	88	90
Andre Miller	17	14.3	75	81
Martell Webster	67	28.4	84	81
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	68
Chris Singleton	22	11.0	40	40
Kevin Seraphin	47	11.8	40	36
Garrett Temple	66	9.4	23	22
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	20
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	31	8.3	3	3
Al Harrington	24	15.0	-2	1

Unsurprisingly given the team’s record during their recent series against the Western Conference, the production of their top players was down a little across the board. Nothing major — just…the kind of thing to be expected when they face some tougher competition than they get in the East.

I don’t know how much Martell Webster’s back is bothering him, but his production is way down this season. Last season, he posted a career-best PPA of 114. This season, he’s back down at his career level. This is cause for concern.

Also, I’ve heard/seen folks in a variety of places refer to the Wizards as a “young team.” But….not so. They’re right at the league average in age, but their rotation at this point is older. I’ll probably look at this in greater detail next week, but consider this:

The team’s plan was “build through the draft,” but only three of their rotation players (Wall, Beal and Booker) were selected by the Wizards.
Those same three players are the team’s only rotation players younger than league average.
Once Nenê returns they’ll have more rotation guys age 30 or older (four) than they do under age 26 (three).

The team does have young players on the roster, but they’ve been decidedly unproductive this season — for much of their careers for most of them.

In keeping with Wizards tradition, Al Harrington currently rates as the NBA’s least productive PF (minimum 300 minutes). Last season, that title was held by Jan Vesely.

Wizards Update: The NCAA Tournament Edition

With the sporting world mostly focused on The High Holy Weekend of NCAA basketball, last night I took in the Wizards game. I enjoy college hoop…to a point…but, truth is that I’d rather watch a regular season NBA game than an NCAA tourney game.

Yes, I’m serious.

The tournament is fun with its single elimination format, but the level of play just isn’t there. Think about it like this: let’s say you want to hear a musical performance tonight. And let’s say you have a choice between say Beyonce (or fill the name of your favorite singer/band) or the best kid at your local college. Which one would you choose (assuming both are free)?

That said, I still love the NCAA tournament because of all the randomness. I estimated Duke as a roughly 75% favorite against Mercer, yet the Blue Devils are going home and Coach K was on the bench with that “holy crap I’m gonna get clobbered in the press for this” look on his face.

But, I’m way off topic.

The Wizards are en route to their first playoff berth in a few years, and their best season since they had guys like Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. All season, I’ve been bothered by the significant quality difference between the NBA’s conferences. Washington is a solid playoff team in the East, but would be on the outside looking in if they were in the West.

Here’s a quick look at that difference:

OPPONENT	WINS	LOSSES	W%	W82
vs. EAST	562	457	.553	45.3
vs. WEST	455	564	.448	36.7

Pretty straightforward. When teams play against an Eastern Conference opponent, they win 55% of the time. When they play against a Western Conference opponent, they win about 45% of the time. That W82 is wins per 82 games. A perfectly average team playing against Eastern Conference opponents could expect to win 45 games over an 82-game season. That same team would win roughly 37 against Western Conference opponents.

Only four teams this season have a better winning percentage against Western Conference opponents than they do against the East — the Clippers, Miami, Brooklyn and Cleveland.

The Wizards have the league’s fifth highest East vs. West differential. Against the East, their winning percentage is .610. Against the West, it’s .370. The teams with bigger differentials: Boston, New Orleans, Detroit and Portland. Against opponents in the East, Washington plays like a 50-win team. Against the West: 30. That’s significant. In other words, Washington is fortunate to be in the East this year.

By the way, I’m not saying the Wizards need to apologize for their schedule. All they can do is play who’s on the calendar for that day, and they don’t have control over opponent incompetence or organizational tanking decisions. Even if the league seeded the playoffs without regard to conference affiliation, Washington would make the post-season (as the 15 seed, but still).

Here’s this week’s Player Production Average (PPA) update. PPA is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	63	36.0	159	154
Drew Gooden	10	17.1	149	152
Marcin Gortat	67	32.9	149	147
John Wall	68	36.8	144	146
Trevor Booker	58	21.2	114	116
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	103
Bradley Beal	59	34.3	94	88
Martell Webster	64	28.6	90	84
Andre Miller	14	13.9	96	75
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	69
Chris Singleton	22	11.0	45	40
Kevin Seraphin	45	12.2	42	40
Garrett Temple	63	9.9	21	23
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	30	8.6	3	3
Al Harrington	21	14.7	-6	-2

Drew Gooden has been an excellent scrap heap pickup for the Wizards. He’s played just 171 minutes so far, but those minutes have been at a borderline All-Star level. Very bad things have been happening defensively when he’s in the game, which bears watching. Bad defense has been a rap on him throughout his career.

The Wizards saw production dips this week from Bradley Beal, Martell Webster and Andre Miller. Al Harrington continues to get minutes, and continues to play very badly. I’d hope that the Harrington experiment ends when Nenê returns.

If the big man comes back healthy and ready to play, head coach Randy Wittman will have a nine-man rotation of Wall and Miller at PG, Beal and Webster at SG, Ariza and Webster at SF, Nenê, Gooden and Booker at PF, and Gortat, Nenê and Gooden at C. That still probably won’t be enough to win a first round series, but it should be good enough to at least make things competitive and fun to watch.

Wizards Enjoy Soft Schedule Without Nenê

The Wizards have run their “without Nenê” record to 5-2 — a subject well-covered by the Washington Post’s Michael Lee this morning. Lee even broke out “points per 100 possessions,” which was nice to see. My only quibble with the story was that it didn’t mention Washington’s ultra-soft schedule, which may have ended up on the cutting room floor as editors tried to make the story fit into their print edition.

Here’s a quick look at the Wizards season — rolling averages of their offensive and defensive ratings (points scored/allowed per 100 possessions), as well as pace (possessions per 48 minutes).

2013-14 Wizards -- rtg & pace rolling — Red = defensive rating
Green = offensive rating
Dark blue = pace
Light blue = league average offensive rating
Orange = date of Nenê’s knee injury

That the Wizards have had a nice run without Nenê shouldn’t be much of a surprise. His overall play (see the PPA table below) has been mediocre, and while he’s helped the team on defense, he’s hurt them on offense. And, the Wizards have faced a series of cupcake opponents — four of their last seven have been in full tank mode. Their win against Toronto is the only one that could be considered a surprise. Even using the Nenê on/off numbers from the date he got hurt, the Wizards should have been expected to win at least four.

What have the Wizards done differently without their big man? They’ve been WAY more efficient on offense (115.3 points per 100 possessions over the last seven games vs. a season average of 105.7), but worse on defense (a defensive rating of 109.7 vs. 104.9 for the season).

The offense was largely expected. As noted previously, Washington has been more efficient without Nenê this season. The defense is worrisome. They got shredded by Orlando (28th ranked offense), Memphis (about average), and Milwaukee (27th on offense). The Heat also toasted them pretty good, but no shock — Miami boasts one of the league’s top three offensive units.

Also helping the Wizards get by without Nenê: the additions of Drew Gooden and Andre Miller. In still-tiny sample sizes for each, they’ve both been exactly what the team needed. Gooden has dominated opposing reserves — at least on the offensive end — and has provided much-needed rebounding and efficient scoring off the bench. Miller has been a steady veteran facilitator who somehow produces despite playing in “epic movie slow-motion” mode.

Miller’s production is sustainable — it’s about the same as what he was doing in Denver before he got sent home because of an argument with Nuggets coach Brian Shaw. Gooden’s production will almost certainly moderate, though he’s likely to still be useful the rest of the season. Gooden’s career PPA is 122, and he’s just two seasons removed from a 141. He’s never been this efficient on offense, though. And, his good play to this point is likely to earn him more minutes, which means he’ll end up facing more starters than he’s gone up against so far this season. Worth mentioning: his defense has long been a concern, and so far he grades out as well-below average in the defense part of PPA.

To the update. What is PPA? It stands for Player Production Average, which is a metric I developed that credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	58	35.9	159	159
Marcin Gortat	63	32.8	141	149
Drew Gooden	5	13.4	-146	149
John Wall	63	36.8	150	144
Trevor Booker	53	20.7	115	114
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	103
Andre Miller	9	13.7	52	96
Bradley Beal	54	33.9	93	94
Martell Webster	59	28.9	88	90
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	69
Chris Singleton	20	11.4	54	45
Kevin Seraphin	43	12.2	42	42
Garrett Temple	59	10.5	21	21
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	29	8.8	2	3
Al Harrington	16	15.3	-9	-6

Trevor Ariza continues to maintain a high level of play. In PPA, he ranks 4th in the league among SFs with at least 500 total minutes; third overall in total production. Marcin Gortat’s production ticked up this week, while John Wall’s went down.

I really think it’s time to shelve talk of Wall being a superstar. He’s very good and he has great potential, but there’s still a loooooooong ways to go for him to be considered an elite player.

Nice to see Martell Webster’s PPA go up slightly — the first time since December 17th that his PPA hasn’t dropped in one of my updates.

With or without Nenê, the week ahead could be a good one for the Wizards. My odds estimator suggests Washington should be favorites to win each of their next four games, although the matchups with Orlando and Sacramento fall into “coin flip” territory. Their odds of actually winning all four are only about 10%, but 3-1 is realistic.

The Anointing of John Wall

Folks have been tripping over each other to anoint John Wall a Genuine SuperStar and Franchise Savior since…well…before he even signed a contract. The Wizards literally gave him red carpet treatment when he arrived in DC after being made the number one selection. Since then, he’s been proclaimed as a star, as one of the game’s elite, and was awarded a max contract basically as soon as the Wizards could offer it.

Jason Reid’s still premature piece last week heralding Wall’s arrival as a “…true NBA star” seems nearly an example of restraint in comparison.

This blog post should not be read as “hate” for Wall. He has improved significantly since his first two seasons, and he has become good. He continues to possess elite (true star) potential, but despite the array of assertions that he already is a star…he’s not. Yet.

Before I go any further, it’s probably worthwhile for me to articulate what I mean by “star.” For me, it’s not a synonym for “well known” or “popular.” They’re guys consistently do the things that cause their teams to win games. Through the years, there have always been “media” stars — guys whose reputations exceed their actual production. Usually, they have high per game scoring averages — think Dominique Wilkins, Allen Iverson and (in recent years) Carmelo Anthony (although Anthony’s production has moved somewhat closer to his rep this season).

At 23 years old, Wall is decidedly NOT in that category. He’s a very good player now, and he’s on the cusp of greatness — if he continues to improve his jumper and cut down on turnovers. He could be one of the game’s elite in the very near future. He’s just not quite there yet.

Here are a few illustrations through the prism of the metric I developed, Player Production Average (PPA). PPA credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. PPA is a per minute stat.

First, let’s look strictly at point guards. In most seasons, it takes a PPA of 225 or higher to be an MVP candidate. Players scoring above 200 are among the game’s truly elite players. Here are this season’s top 10 PGs (minimum 500 minutes):

Chris Paul — 250
Stephen Curry — 197
Goran Dragic — 175
Kyle Lowry — 170
Russell Westbrook — 166
Mike Conley — 163
Ty Lawson — 158
John Wall — 150
Tony Parker — 149
Damian Lillard — 146

If I redo the analysis looking at totals instead of per minute production (to reward durability), Wall moves to fifth behind Curry, Lowry, Paul and Dragic.

Based on my analysis of Wall’s game and what I know of his work ethic and personality, I’d take his future over the future of anyone on the list ahead of him except Paul. But he needs to become more productive to become a truly elite PG.

Comparing Wall to the rest of the league, it’s hard to support the claim that he’s a “true star” (elite player). He’s top 20 in total production, in part because of he plays lots of minutes. In per minute production, he ranks just outside the top 40.

As I discussed a few weeks back, Wall’s positive contributions are plentiful — not unlike some of the game’s best players. But, his negative plays (poor shot selection, missed shots, and turnovers) are also abundant. I estimate that his shooting from the floor has cost the team 59 points so far this season — just under a point per game. That doesn’t sound like much, but over the course of 60 games it works out to about two more wins. Just two more wins at this point would have the Wizards tied with Chicago for the fourth seed, and just a half game behind Toronto for third.

‘Nuff said.

To this week’s PPA update:

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	55	36.0	155	159
John Wall	60	36.9	147	150
Marcin Gortat	60	32.9	144	141
Trevor Booker	50	20.6	112	115
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	103
Bradley Beal	51	33.8	94	93
Martell Webster	57	28.9	89	88
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	69
Chris Singleton	18	12.0	53	54
Andre Miller	6	13.8	88	52
Kevin Seraphin	43	12.2	43	42
Garrett Temple	56	10.9	20	21
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	26	8.8	-6	2
Al Harrington	13	14.2	12	-9
Drew Gooden	2	7.0		-146

Ariza and Wall continue to lead the way for the Wizards. Ariza is having a career-best season in his contract year. I have to think the Wizards would like to re-sign him, and I suspect Ariza’s more modest career production may keep his price more manageable.

Martell Webster’s PPA declined by one point — down for an eighth consecutive update. It’s good the team is giving him some days off to rest his ailing back, which is the likely cause for his production dip.

The new and returning old guys (Andre Miller, Drew Gooden and Al Harrington) were all awful since the last update.

It was good to see Otto Porter make some plays in the loss to Memphis. He’s back out of negative PPA territory, unlike number one overall pick Anthony Bennett whose PPA is -3.

A couple more entries in Small Sample Size theater: the departed Wizards. Jan Vesely’s PPA in Washington: 69. In 59 minutes for Denver: 58. PG Eric Maynor in Washington: 8. In 68 minutes for Philly: 48. That 48 was right around Maynor’s career average before signing with the Wizards. I still have no idea why the Washington front office thought he’d be good. Thankfully, he can now do a job for which he’s perfectly suited — helping Philadelphia lose games.

Andre Miller Is A Big Upgrade

No time for anything in-depth today, but I wanted to get the numbers up. The Andre Miller trade is paying off already. In his first three games (and 44 minutes), Miller has been a bit more than four times as productive as Garrett Temple on a per minute basis.

John Wall, Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal, and Marcin Gortat had good weeks. Trevor Booker did not. Martell Webster’s production declined for a seventh consecutive update.

The table below shows the just about weekly results of my metric: Player Production Average (PPA). PPA credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	52	35.7	148	155
John Wall	57	36.8	140	147
Marcin Gortat	57	32.4	139	144
Trevor Booker	47	20.1	118	112
Nene Hilario	49	30.1	103	103
Bradley Beal	48	33.5	90	94
Martell Webster	55	28.8	91	89
Andre Miller	3	14.7		88
Jan Vesely	33	14.2	69	69
Chris Singleton	15	10.9	60	53
Kevin Seraphin	43	12.2	44	43
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Garrett Temple	54	11.2	20	20
Al Harrington	10	15.1	6	12
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Otto Porter	24	8.9	-4	-6

Should the Wizards Fire Randy Wittman?

I was all set to write a piece arguing that it would be pointless to fire Randy Wittman. Yeah, he’s not a good coach, but in my view the team is performing about as I expected. The Wizards are neither good nor bad. They’re mediocre. Or, looked at another way, the Wizards are BOTH good and bad. Which is merely another way of saying the same thing: this is an average team.

They are what their talent says they are. I don’t believe that any coach could come in and transmogrify this roster into a…well…what exactly? a contender for the third seed? Blech.

What would “fix” the Wizards? Fewer two-point jumpers? More screen/roll with John Wall and Marcin Gortat? Better defined roles? A rotation that somehow includes developmental minutes for Otto Porter? A more solid defensive scheme? More consistent effort? Sure, any or all.

Some of that could be influenced by the coach, some not. My position has been that Wittman is a problem, not The Problem. And, “The Problem” is that the team doesn’t have enough talent, which is a result of a series of bad decisions by the front office. My thinking has been this: Don’t let Ernie Grunfeld off the hook. Make him live with the success or failure of the team he assembled — players AND coaches.

Except, let’s look at reality. Owner Ted Leonsis set the franchise goal for the season: Make the playoffs. In very large part because of a historically weak Eastern Conference, the Wizards will almost certainly accomplish that goal. While they’d be roughly the 11th best team in the West, they’re 5th or 6th best in the East. It would take a catastrophic collapse over their final 29 games to miss the postseason.

Assuming Leonsis is a man of his word, Grunfeld will be retained in the offseason. It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Washington makes the playoffs and Leonsis doesn’t bring back Grunfeld and The Coach.

I use “The Coach” intentionally, because the question for Wizards fans is whether you want to root for a team that’s stuck with Grunfeld and Wittman or a team that’s stuck with Grunfeld and Someone Else. My feeling is that Someone Else — whether it’s an interim coach who’s replaced by a “permanent” hire after the season or whether it’s an interim coach who “succeeds” and keeps the job — will be a better long-term option for the Wizards than Wittman.

So, even though Wittman has been saddled with a roster that doesn’t include a single player that ranks among the league’s 40 most productive players (Trevor Ariza is the highest rated Wizards player at 44), count me among the fans who’d like to see a new coach. Now.

Moving on to the update… The table below presents results from my Player Production Average (PPA) metric. PPA credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	48	35.8	152	148
John Wall	53	37.1	149	140
Marcin Gortat	53	32.4	139	139
Trevor Booker	43	20.2	125	118
Nene Hilario	46	30.3	103	103
Martell Webster	51	29.1	94	91
Bradley Beal	44	33.2	86	90
Jan Vesely	32	14.7	72	69
Chris Singleton	14	10.6	60	60
Kevin Seraphin	40	11.8	32	44
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Garrett Temple	51	11.5	13	20
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	8	8
Al Harrington	7	18.6	6	6
Otto Porter	23	9.3	4	-4

When looking at these numbers, keep in mind that PPA scores in the 140-150 range (like Ariza and Wall) are nowhere near elite levels of production. A typical MVP-quality season would have a PPA of 230 or better. This season’s MVP is likely to be Kevin Durant with a PPA of 261 (so far). Last season, Lebr0n James posted the best PPA in my database with a 284.

Wall had a feel-good All-Star weekend winning the dunk contest and playing well in the game. But, if he played in the West, he wouldn’t have been part of the All-Star discussion. He continues to have All-World potential, but his actual production is good — not great.

Biggest improvers in this update were Kevin Seraphin and Garrett Temple. Seraphin is now at replacement level. Temple continues to be among the league’s weakest PGs, but is at least a little less bad than he’d been.

Wall’s performance slumped leading into the All-Star break. Perhaps he was distracted by the coming festivities? Nenê’s production continues to hover around league average. Martell Webster’s play declined for a sixth consecutive update.

Weekly Wizards Check-Up: The Over .500 Edition

Wanted to get this up before tonight’s match-up with the San Antonio Spurs — a team the Wizards haven’t beaten since 2005. For those keeping score at home, that’s 15 consecutive losses to the Spurs. But, I’m digressing (in the lede, no less). The point is to celebrate that the Wizards are a game over .500 for the first time in four years.

When I told my 17-year old the other night, he said (and this is an exact quote): “Wow. Is the East really that bad this year?”

When I tried to tell my 14-year old, I’d gotten to “…for the first time in…” He finished the sentence with, “…my lifetime?”

Wiseass.

Although, now that I reflect on it, I’m not sure he was joking. The team has been bad enough for long enough that it’s probably a reasonable question for a less-than-casual follower of the team. Put another way, it’s been nearly 29% of my 14-year old’s life since the Wizards had a record over .500.

Anyway, not much time for this week’s update. The table below presents results from my Player Production Average (PPA) metric. PPA credits players for things that contribute to winning and debits them for things that don’t — each in proper proportion. PPA is pace adjusted, accounts for defense and includes a degree of difficulty factor. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level.

A few quick observations:

Biggest improvers this week were Kevin Seraphin and Garrett Temple. John Wall had a good week, and Marcin Gortat wasn’t bad either. Trevor Ariza maintained at a high level of production.
In consecutive games against Oklahoma City and Portland, Seraphin had single-game PPA scores of 179 and 178. If he could somehow manage that kind of play over a full season, it would put him among the league’s 10-12 most productive centers — in a general grouping with Joakim Noah, Nikola Pekovic and DeAndre Jordan. I do not expect this kind of performance to continue for long.
Martell Webster’s PPA slipped for a fifth consecutive update. His production for the season is now slightly below average. His shooting continues to be excellent, but he’s very low usage (about 14% of the team’s possessions when he’s in the game), and he doesn’t rebound or assist much. His defense rates as a little below average in my analysis.
Nenê’s production continues to hover around league average. The trajectory of his production is looking scarily like a fairly typical NBA aging curve. The team continues to be better when he’s on the floor, but the dip in his overall production has to be a concern — especially since he’s due $13 million for two more seasons after this one.
Eric Maynor didn’t exactly give a good example of staying ready. After getting DNP-CD for a month, Maynor finally got a shot. In just 6:37 of playing time, Maynor was bad enough to lower his PPA for the season by five points. When it comes to Maynor, keep in mind this quote from Ernie Grunfeld on the eve of training camp:

We wanted to upgrade our backup point guard position and Eric [Maynor] has been with us now, three weeks in a row. He’s very solid, very steady. He brings a little poise to the game. He knows how to play. So we feel we’ve upgraded that position.

PLAYER	GMS	MPG	LW	PPA
Trevor Ariza	42	35.2	151	152
John Wall	47	36.9	143	149
Marcin Gortat	47	32.6	136	139
Trevor Booker	37	21.2	136	125
Nene Hilario	40	29.6	104	103
Martell Webster	45	30.0	100	94
Bradley Beal	38	32.8	89	86
Jan Vesely	29	15.7	72	72
Chris Singleton	14	10.6	60	60
Kevin Seraphin	34	10.8	17	32
Glen Rice	11	9.9	21	21
Garrett Temple	45	11.5	3	13
Eric Maynor	23	9.3	13	8
Al Harrington	7	18.6	6	6
Otto Porter	22	9.4	4	4

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: